1208-1369年陕甘宁交界地区干湿变化

More than 240 items of historical records containing climatic information were retrieved from official historical books, local chronicles, annals and regional meteorological disaster yearbooks. By using moisture index and flood/drought (F/D) index obtained from the above information, the historical climate change, namely wet-dry conditions in borderland of Shaanxi Province, Gansu Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (BSGN, mainly included Ningxialu, Hezhoulu, Gongchanglu, Fengyuanlu and Yan’anlu in the Yuan Dynasty) was studied. The results showed that the climate of the region was generally dry and the ratio between drought and flood disasters was 85/38 during the period of 1208–1369. According to the frequencies of drought-flood disasters, the whole period could be divided into three phases. (1) 1208–1240: drought dominated the phase with occasional flood disasters. (2) 1240–1320: long-time drought disasters and extreme drought events happened frequently. (3) 1320–1369: drought disasters were less severe when flood and drought disasters happened alternately. Besides, the reconstructed wet-dry change curve revealed obvious transition and periodicity in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The transitions occurred in 1230 and 1325. The wet-dry change revealed 10- and 23-year quasi-periods which were consistent with solar cycles, indicating that solar activity had affected the wet-dry conditions of the study region in the Mongol-Yuan Period. The reconstructed results were consistent with two other study results reconstructed from natural evidences, and were similar to another study results from historical documents. All the above results showed that the climate in BSGN was characterized by long-time dry condition with frequent severe drought disasters during 1258 to 1308. Thus, these aspects of climatic changes might have profound impacts on local vegetation and socio-economic system.     

2008年世界铜资源供需形势分析

1资源状况尽管世界每年铜金属产量规模均超一千万吨,但是随着新一轮矿业经济周期中全球铜矿勘查投资的不断增加,世界不断有新的铜资源被发现,使得世界铜资源储量及基础储量总体呈增长态势,供应保障能力持续向好。据美国地质调查局资料,近10年来,世界铜资源储量及基础储量均约增长了50%,静态供应保障能力进一步提升至35年(图1)。     

做好地方地震监测预报基础工作之管见

为了充分发挥地方地震监测预报机构的作用,发挥区域优势,推动群测群防工作的开展。认为,地方地震监测预报部门的基础性工作必须要从重视基础研究、抓观测资料质量、提高会商质量、提高监测队伍素质、深入开展地震科普知识宣传等方面入手,才能适应当前监测预报体系的发展要求。     

山西大同市地震应急基础数据库项目建设现状及改进对策分析

文章通过对大同市地震应急基础数据库项目建设的现状,数据收集的过程进行分析,发现了目前存在的问题,进一步提出了改进的措施和建议,明确应建立各项管理制度,确保地震应急基础数据库在地震发生后发挥其作用。     

Comprehensive precursor anomaly research based on earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum

With the aim to the quantification of anomaly identification and extraction for observed or analyzed records, we present two statistical methods of earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum(ECRS)and sliding mean relevancy (SMR).With ECRS method,we can obtain the abnormal confidence attribute of data in different value ranges.Based on the relevancy spectrum in different studied time-intervals,we convert the original time sequence into relevancy time sequence, and can obtain the SMR time series by using the...     

岩石锚杆基础抗拔承载力计算方法探究

岩石锚杆基础作为架空输电线路塔基中的一种特殊基础型式,可以充分发挥原状岩体的力学性能,具有良好的抗拔性能。根据目前岩石锚杆基础原型试验的结果,《架空送电线路基础设计技术规定》中所推荐的单锚基础抗拔承载力计算模型中,理想45?破坏模式与实际不符,按其设计计算值偏差较大,可能导致设计成果不安全。为此,依据极限平衡原理基于围岩强度建立了较为合理的抗拔承载力计算模型,力学推导得出了相关公式,并进行了简化。通过推导公式计算值与实测值、设计值对比验证可知,抗拔承载力极限值位于 ～ 区间内,与推荐公式 的计算值一致性较好,能满足工程应用精度,具有可行性。     

下卧基岩饱和地基中埋置刚性基础的竖向振动问题研究

基于Biot提出的饱和土波动方程,研究了埋置于单层饱和地基中的有质量的刚性圆柱基础的竖向振动问题。运用Hankel积分变换求解饱和土基本动力方程,并考虑基础与地基接触面的混合边值条件,求得了基础底面和基础侧面的动反力,结合基础振动的动力平衡方程,得到了基础竖向振动振幅和地基等效动力刚度的表达式。数值分析结果表明：下卧基岩饱和地基的等效动力刚度和基础振动振幅都呈现出明显的波动现象,土层厚度、基础埋深比、基础质量比对埋置基础的竖向振动有很大影响。     

无厚度界面单元边坡浅基础极限承载力上限值的数值分析

采用研发的有限单元分析程序,并同时考虑以库仑摩擦界面为组成模式的多段式无厚度界面单元,藉以探讨边坡坡角与坡缘距离对边坡坡顶浅基础极限承载力的影响,并应用于不同几何破坏机制条件,计算边坡基础在凝聚性土体的最小荷载上限值,模拟土体间的滑动破坏趋势与渐进式破坏行为。研究分析内容包含：（1）浅基础位于半无限空间;（2）在不同边坡坡角条件下,浅基础位于坡顶边缘处;（3）在不同边坡坡角条件下,浅基础位于不同坡缘距离等。经由数值计算分析结果显示,坡缘距离值愈小或边坡坡角愈陡峭时,边坡浅基础极限承载力值则愈小。换言之,当浅基础位于坡顶边缘处且坡角为垂直开挖情况时,则导致浅基础极限承载力降低约50 %。     

渗流引起的筒型基础土体软化分析

筒型基础在施工下沉过程中,负压水头值随着贯入深度的增加而逐渐加大,通过有限元法进行了不同下沉阶段的渗流场计算;总结了渗流场的基本特点并建立渗流场方程;由计算出的速度和梯度通过水土相互作用的微观分析,确定不同下沉阶段的土体软化范围;结合土力学的基本理论,通过土的基本物理指标在软化后的变化确定土的软化程度;最后通过算例计算方法的正确性和理论的合理性。     

用于震害研究的遥感资料航摄与影像图制作技术

本文从对震害进行分析和研究的目的出发,讨论了航空遥感飞行与影像图制作的有关技术和实施问题,主要包括在震害研究和调查中,航摄与制图比例尺的选择、航空遥感飞行的方案设计、利用影像图进行震害研究分析的优越性及系列震害专题影像图的确定与制作特点等内容。