区域土壤侵蚀定量研究的国内外进展

由于水土保持宏观决策的需要、土壤侵蚀学科自身的进步和全球变化研究的促进,过去的10多年来,国内外研究者对区域尺度土壤侵蚀研究给予了高度重视。已经开展的主要研究包括:全球和区域（包括国家尺度）土壤侵蚀调查、区域土壤侵蚀过程和尺度效应、区域土壤侵蚀因子和区域土壤侵蚀模型等。将区域土壤侵蚀作为现代陆地地表过程的一部分,充分考虑全球变化的影响,集成土壤侵蚀研究成果与遥感和GIS技术,开发分布式区域土壤侵蚀模型,成为区域土壤侵蚀定量评价研究的基本趋势。在对国内外区域土壤侵蚀定量评价研究评述的基础上,提出我国近期在区域土壤侵蚀方面研究的重点问题为：区域土壤侵蚀过程及其尺度效应的量化描述、区域土壤侵蚀模型开发、区域土壤侵蚀动态模拟与趋势预测、区域土壤侵蚀与全球变化关系研究和区域土壤侵蚀数据处理与管理方法。     

Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Middle-high latitude N2O distributions related to the Arctic vortex breakup

The relationship of N2O distributions with the Arctic vortex breakup is first analyzed with a probability distribution function （PDF） analysis. The N2O concentration shows different distributions between the early and late vortex breakup years. In the early breakup years, the N2O concentration shows low values and large dispersions after the vortex breakup, which is related to the inhomogeneity in the vertical advection in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere. The horizontal diffusion coefficient （Kyy） shows a larger value accordingly. In the late breakup years, the N2O concentration shows high values and more uniform distributions than in the early years after the vortex breakup, with a smaller vertical advection and Kyy after the vortex breakup. It is found that the N2O distributions are largely affected by the Arctic vortex breakup time but the dynamically defined vortex breakup time is not the only factor.     

Implementation of the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme on a quasi-uniform overset grid on a sphere

The semi-Lagrangian advection scheme is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset （Yin-Yang） grid on the sphere. The Yin-Yang grid is a newly developed grid system in spherical geometry with two perpendicularly-oriented latitude-longitude grid components （called Yin and Yang respectively） that overlapp each other, and this effectively avoids the coordinate singularity and the grid convergence near the poles. In this overset grid, the way of transferring data between the Yin and Yang components is the key to maintaining the accuracy and robustness in numerical solutions. A numerical interpolation for boundary data exchange, which maintains the accuracy of the original advection scheme and is computationally efficient, is given in this paper. A standard test of the solid-body advection proposed by Williamson is carried out on the Yin-Yang grid. Numerical results show that the quasi-uniform Yin-Yang grid can get around the problems near the poles, and the numerical accuracy in the original semi-Lagrangian scheme is effectively maintained in the Yin-Yang grid.     

青藏高原新生代形成演化的整合模型——来自火成岩的约束

深部过程是青藏高原演化的主导因素,其他地质过程都可以看作是对深部过程的响应。因此,一个构造旋回(阶段)的地球动力学事件链可以概括为深部地质过程—幔源岩浆活动—壳源岩浆活动—陆壳增厚—地表隆升—表层剥蚀与沉积,其中幔源岩浆活动的研究成为追索青藏高原演化历史的关键环节。据此,青藏高原演化的关键性时间坐标为80、45、27、17、9和4Ma。青藏高原新生代火成岩具有三种展布形式:与雅鲁藏布缝合带平行的岩浆带、沿深大断裂展布的岩浆带和藏北离散性岩浆分布区,它们分别受控于大陆碰撞、大规模走滑和岩石圈拆沉构造体制,且都受控于印度—亚洲软流圈汇聚过程。据此,文中提出了一个描述青藏高原演化的整合模型:南北向地幔对流汇聚控制了岩石圈块体的相对运动,并最终导致印度—亚洲大陆的碰撞和沿碰撞带的大规模岩浆活动;碰撞之初(白垩纪末期),大陆岩石圈块体的刚性属性有利于应力的远程传递和块体旋转,沿块体边界分布的大型走滑断裂控制了岩浆活动的发生;随着挤压过程的持续进行,岩石圈块体的受热和变形,高原岩石圈的重力不稳定性增加,最终导致拆沉作用和软流圈物质的大规模上涌以及藏北高原的离散性岩浆活动。在高原演化中,岩石圈拆沉作用具有重要意义,许多地质事件的发生都与此有关。同时,软流圈的汇聚还导致软流圈物质的向东挤出,并因此造成青藏高原岩石圈的向东挤出和晚新生代的伸展构造。     

应用最优化模型分析活断层与地震的关系

文中应用基于“多态”前兆模式及效能评价的最优效能单项模型参数选择方法,分析了3个地震带活断层(Qp3—Qh)与地震(M≥6)空间分布之间的关系。结果表明,河套地震带地震较集中分布在距断层20km的范围内,用其对6级以上地震进行地点预测有较高的准确性,R值达0.5,而对祁连山地震带30km范围内地震的发生地点进行预测,R值却仅为0.14     

FRP约束混凝土柱抗震性能若干问题的探讨

基于实验研究和理论分析结果,对纤维增强复合材料(FRP)约束混凝土柱抗震性能研究中存在的若干关键问题进行了探讨,包括FRP约束混凝土构件在往复荷载作用下的受力特点、破坏特征、荷载-位移关系、弯矩-曲率关系、耗能及延性变化规律等,最后重点探讨了FRP约束混凝土柱在往复荷载作用下的刚度特性。     

立交桥曲线箱梁动力分析模型

提出了1种双脊骨空间有限元模型,用来模拟和分析立交桥曲线箱梁的固有振动特性和动力反应。将曲线箱梁分别看作是由空间梁或壳组成的空间结构,并分别采用分段空间直梁模型、壳元模型和实体元模型进行模拟,分析相同曲线箱梁的振动特性和地震时程反应,通过与双脊骨模型的计算结果的比较验证双脊骨模型的可靠性。初步研究了在相同曲率半径下不同跨度的曲线箱梁的固有振动特性,分析了双脊骨模型的脊骨间距、横向连接间距等参数对模型计算结果的影响。研究结果可为曲线梁桥抗震性能和地震反应分析提供参考。     

基于脉冲响应数据的ARMA法建模以及模态参数识别

本文提出了基于脉冲响应数据的ARMA法建模以及模态参数识别的新方法。该方法利用单位脉冲响应函数与ARMA模型G reen函数等价的特点,通过脉冲响应函数来估计系统响应的自相关系数,然后建立推广的Yu le-W alker方程以求得ARMA模型自回归系数并进行参数识别。最后通过算例,对一个模拟系统进行了参数识别,对采样频率、识别精度、模型阶数之间的影响规律进行了分析。     

钢-混凝土组合剪力墙抗震性能研究简述

钢-混凝土组合剪力墙可以充分发挥钢和混凝土2种材料的优势,改善传统钢筋混凝土剪力墙延性和耗能能力较差的缺点,在钢-混凝土混合结构中具有应用优势。本文简要介绍了国内外一些新型的钢-混凝土组合剪力墙,并简述了其抗震性能的研究现状,最后对一些关键问题进行了初步探讨。