桐柏─大别山北麓金矿带地质物化探找矿模型

从桐柏─大别山成矿带区域地质、地球物理、地球化学特征的研究入手，分析与金成矿有关的地层、构造、岩浆岩等控矿因素的地球物理场及地球化学特征；建立区域金矿找矿模型。     

台湾海峡西岸重力场变化梯度场图像分析

讨论了应用曲面拟合技术和利用离散的重力观测点的重力变化对特定研究区的重力场变化进行数值模拟以获取该区重力变化空间梯度场图像的具体方法;并应用该方法获得了2004年3月福建安溪3.6级地震前的重力变化空间梯度场图像,发现空间梯度场图像能清晰地反映出地震前重力场群体性变化的差异性;利用此方法对2005年6月~2006年3月间台湾海峡西岸重力场变化进行数值模拟,获得其空间梯度场图像。     

居民收入与通信网络市场经济效益研究--以河北省通信网络为实例

利用Logisitic曲线模型和扩展支撑模型对居民可支配收入预测和单项消费预测，以河北省居民的收入及其消费支出为实例，研究了城镇居民和农民的可支配收入分配和单项边际消费倾向，合理建立了预测模型，并理论计算了1999～2003年的通信消费方面的边际消费倾向、预测了2004～2008年通信消费情况。最后，根据预测结果对通信网络建设提出了一些有价值的建议。     

ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

应用GPS观测青藏高原东北缘应力场变化

采用各向同性弹性地球模型推导了地面位移场速率与地壳内任意点应力场变化的边界积分关系,同时利用青藏高原东北缘1999～2001年观测的GPS资料对观测区地壳深度为5 km和25 km的主应力和最大剪应力进行了计算分析.结果表明,青藏高原东北缘的主应力变化主要集中在祁连山断裂、海原断裂等,在1920～1954年间历史上发生过多次震级为7.0～8.5级强震的断裂附近,并具有主应力变化沿断层走向分布、最大剪应力沿断层走向交替变化等特征.     

土地管理之路--冀州土地管理理念与实践

翻开土地管理的发展历史,大体都要经过三个阶段:管住、管好和服务。土地管理所追求的是:没有“管理”只有“服务”。 ——题记     

徐州市城市化进程中耕地保护的研究

徐州都市圈的培育和建设以及徐州市作为特大城市的规划和建设势必对徐州市土地利用提出新的要求，《徐州市土地利用总体规划》将作出重大调整。保持拼地总量动态平衡的任务将更加艰巨，需要采取必要的行政，法律和经济手段才能实现。