Seasonal Prediction of the Global Precipitation Annual Modes with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG

A right annual cycle is of critical importance for a model to improve its seasonal prediction skill. This work assesses the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） in retrospective prediction of the global precipitation annual modes for the 1980 2004 period. The annual modes are gauged by a three-parameter metrics： the long-term annual mean and two major modes of annual cycle （AC）, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. The results demonstrate that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction is basically able to capture the major patterns of the long-term annual mean as well as the first AC mode （the solstitial monsoon mode）. The GAMIL has deficiencies in reproducing the second AC mode （the equinoctial asymmetric mode）. The magnitude of the GAMIL prediction tends to be greater than the observed precipitation, especially in the sea areas including the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the western North Pacific （WNP）. These biases may be due to underestimation of the convective activity predicted in the tropics, especially over the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） and its neighboring areas. It is suggested that a more accurate parameterization of convection in the tropics, especially in the Maritime Continent, the WPWP and its neighboring areas, may be critical for reproducing the more realistic annual modes, since the enhancement of convective activity over the WPWP and its vicinity can induce suppressed convection over the WNP, the BOB, and the South Indian Ocean where the GAMIL produces falsely vigorous convections. More efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in monsoon seasons but also in transitional seasons when the second AC mode takes place. Selection of the one-tier or coupled atmosphere-ocean system may also reduce the systematic error of the GAMIL prediction. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL seasonal prediction skill.     

王守臣副省长在全省气象工作会议上的讲话

这次全省气象工作会议,是省政府决定召开的。主要任务是：深入贯彻落实中央和省农村工作会议、全国气象局长会议精神,认真总结2008年全省气象工作,研究部署今年全省气象工作的重点目标任务。下面,就进一步做好全省气象工作讲三点意见。     

钦州市2006年汛期暴雨过程局地气象条件分析

取钦州市附近的日本数值预报某格点资料和北海探空站的资料,对2006年钦州市汛期暴雨过程进行分析发现,在不同的天气系统影响下,该格点的Ses-Se时序图上有比较明显的相似过程,以特定阀值15作判断标准对暴雨预报具有指示意义;在北海站的Se剖面图上,低值中心的闭合,对暴雨过程的开始和结束也具有比较好的参考性,两种资料的结合分析,有利于提高暴雨预报的准确率.     

加权演化的交通网络模型研究

加权网络是复杂网络研究的一个重要领域,交通网络是一个典型的加权网络．交通网络的发展演化对国民经济的繁荣发展起着至关重要的作用．综合复杂网络的拓扑结构和交通流量计算的顾客选择理论,提出了一种随时间演化基于乘客中转路径的交通系统发展演化模型,并对模型进行了分析和数学验证,分析结果为该模型的点强度、点度和权重分布性质和ＢＢＶ模型完全一致;网络是无尺度网络,点强度和点度分布都服从幂律分布,并且指数在２３３～３００之间．最后通过仿真实验对演化模型进行仿真,结合中国交通网络的实证分析验证了模型的合理性．     

Regional Distribution of Perceived Temperatures Estimated by the Human Heat Budget Model （the Klima-Michel Model） in South Korea

The regional distribution of perceived temperatures (PT) for 28 major weather stations in South Korea during the past 22 years (1983–2004) was investigated by employing a human heat budget model, the Klima-Michel model. The frequencies of a cold stress and a heat load by each region were compared. The sensitivity of PT in terms of the input of synoptic meteorological variables were successfully tested. Seogwipo in Jeju Island appears to be the most comfortable city in Korea. Busan also shows a high frequenc...     

关于公共气象服务的几点思考

公共气象服务应顺应改革趋势,以服务引领气象事业的发展和创新。本文通过公共气象服务的纯公共和准公共服务属性界定,分析了现有公共气象服务分类在新形势下存在的利弊,提出服务产品应重视差异化程度、与时俱进,改变重服务产品前段、轻服务产品中段、略服务产品后段的现状,加强产品深度加工,延长气象服务产品链条,对气象信息非法传播宜“堵”与“疏”结合,引导受众正确使用气象服务产品等几点想法。     

一种改进的基于导数迭代的磁场向下延拓方法

高精度的地磁场数据库是地磁匹配导航的基础.在构建地磁数据库时,需要将空中的航磁测量数据向下延拓至某一水平面,而向下延拓在数学上具有不适定性,通常利用迭代方法逐次逼近"适定最优解".本文针对导数迭代法在迭代过程中的噪声累积问题,提出一种改进方法,首先利用稳定的向上延拓将观测面和向上延拓、向下延拓同等高度平面上的磁场值联系...     

红外焦平面探测器信息获取与预处理电路设计

针对中国科学院上海技术物理研究所研制的1500元红外线列焦平面探测器的输出特性,提出了以低噪声运放为核心的信息获取电路和以FPGA(Field Programmable Gate Array)为核心的数据预处理的设计方案,实现了驱动电路和探测器的良好匹配,较好地发挥了探测器高灵敏度的特性.测试结果表明,该方案不仅对系统获得优于50 mK噪声等效温差的高灵敏度成像起到了重要作用,足够宽的量化设计还保证了系统的动态范围和图像的丰富层次.该设计方案已成功应用在一些其他类型的红外焦平面探测器中.     

三角平动点在深空探测中的应用前景

与共线平动点不同,圆型限制性三体问题中的两个三角平动点在一定条件下,无论是线性意义下还是非线性意义下,都是稳定的,其附近存在着周期与拟周期轨道,在深空探测中有应用前景.该文首先简单介绍三角平动点附近运动的动力学特征,然后以日-(地+月)系和地-月系两个三体系统为例,进一步阐述真实引力模型下三角平动点附近的运动状态,最后以这两个三体系统为例,探讨了三角平动点探测器的发射和定点轨道控制问题.     

Abundance analysis of Barium stars

We obtain the chemical abundances of six barium stars and two CH subgiant stars based on the high signal-to-noise ratio and high resolution Echelle spectra. The neu- tron capture process elements Y, Zr, Ba, La and Eu show obvious overabundances relative to the Sun, for example, their [Ba/Fe] values are from 0.45 to 1.27. Other elements, in- cluding Na, Mg, A1, Si, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Cr, Mn and Ni, show comparable abundances to the Solar ones, and their [Fe/H] covers a range from -0.40 to 0.21, which means they belong to the Galactic disk. The predictions of the theoretical model of wind accretion for bi- nary systems can explain the observed abundance patterns of the neutron capture process elements in these stars, which means that their overabundant heavy-elements could be caused by accreting the ejecta of AGB stars, the progenitors of present-day white dwarf companions in binary systems.