Possible Impacts of the Arctic Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in East Asia

The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia, The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However,the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China.The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.     

部分变量误差模型的整体抗差最小二乘估计

部分变量误差模型(partial EIV model)的加权整体最小二乘(weighted total least-squares,WTLS)估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在观测值和系数矩阵中,本文在提出部分变量误差模型WTLS估计的两步迭代解法的基础上,运用抗差M估计的等价权方法,发展了一种整体抗差最小二乘(TRLS)估计方法,并采用一致最大功效统计量确定降权因子。针对WTLS估计两步迭代解法的特点,设计了两个不同的降权方案:第1个方案是在估计系数矩阵元素时,不对观测值降权,仅对系数矩阵降权;第2个方案是在估计系数矩阵元素时,既对系数矩阵降权,同时也对观测值降权。通过对模拟2D仿射变换和线性拟合实例进行计算和分析,结果表明第1方案优于第2方案,并且优于基于残差和验后单位权方差的抗差估计和现有的变量误差模型抗差估计。     

中国沿海多鳞四指马鲅(Eleutheronema rhadinum)与四指马鲅(E. tridactylum)形态与遗传位点差异分析

多鳞四指马鲅(Eleutheronema rhadinum)与四指马鲅(Eleutheronema tridactylum)是四指马鲅属(Eleutheronema)中的名贵经济鱼类,具有良好的养殖开发前景。本文对中国沿海多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅群体的26个形态特征值进行了多变量比较分析,提取了7个主成分,累计贡献率达到91.112%,前三个主成分贡献率分别为28.759%、21.467%、15.469%。多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅形态差异主要体现在头背部、尾柄部、背腹轴及头尾轴的特征。利用4个形态学参数建立了2群体判别公式,综合判别准确率高达100%,可作为多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅物种资源的初步判定方法。另外,利用简化基因组测序开发出多鳞四指马鲅与四指马鲅SNP标记69207个、In Del标记12884个,丰富了四指马鲅属鱼类遗传结构研究数据。本研究为进一步开展四指马鲅数属物种资源评估与保护、选育、功能基因研究提供基础资料。     

西北太平洋气候和海洋环境变化对柔鱼空间分布的影响

Ommastrephes bartramii is an ecologically dependent species and has great commercial values among the AsiaPacific countries. This squid widely inhabits the North Pacific, one of the most dynamic marine environments in the world, subjecting to multi-scale climatic events such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). Commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995–2011 are used to evaluate the influences of climatic and oceanic environmental variations on the spatial distribution of O. bartramii. Significant interannual and seasonal variability are observed in the longitudinal and latitudinal gravity centers(LONG and LATG) of fishing ground of O. bartramii. The LATG mainly occurred in the waters with the suitable ranges of environmental variables estimated by the generalized additive model. The apparent north-south spatial shift in the annual LATG appeares to be associated with the PDO phenomenon and is closely related to the sea surface temperature(SST)and sea surface height(SSH) on the fishing ground, whereas the mixed layer depth(MLD) might contribute limited impacts to the distribution pattern of O. bartramii. The warm PDO regimes tend to yield cold SST and low SSH, resulting in a southward shift of LATG, while the cold PDO phases provid warm SST and elevated SSH,resulting in a northward shift of LATG. A regression model is developed to help understand and predict the fishing ground distributions of O. bartramii and improve the fishery management.     

浅海阵不变量和波导不变量关系的研究

阵不变量和波导不变量在浅海波导被动测距中应用广泛,对于浅海垂直阵阵不变量和波导不变量的关系,可利用简正波理论推导出阵不变量和波导不变量的关系式。利用2009年青岛崂山湾海试实验垂直阵数据提取的阵不变量,以及通过实验真实环境仿真得到的波导不变量,验证了上述关系式。阵不变量和波导不变量关系的明确,理论上可以改善阵不变量测距精度,进一步扩大两者的应用范围。     

P气田基于地质模型的储量不确定性分析

地质建模的最终目的是建立反映地质认识的地质模型,并对储层的不确定性以及由此带来的储量不确定性进行定量表征。南海P气田正处于开发的前期研究阶段,井点资料少,储层的纵横向变化快,储量不确定性强。该文以地质模型为载体,探讨了该气田地质储量不确定性分析的方法,总结了相似气田地质储量不确定性分析的一般方法:通过对变量的敏感性分析,确定影响该气田地质储量的主要变量,以此为基础通过拉丁超立方概率分析法进行储量评价及地质模型的优选,最终确定构造和气水界面的变化是影响该气田储量的主要因素,P50是该气田可动用储量。该方法为前期研究阶段的储量动用提供了新的思路。     

层序地层学模拟研究进展及趋势

模拟层序地层学是层序地层学理论重要的研究手段之一,在国外该项技术较为成熟.层序地层计算机模拟软件采用的算法主要有扩散算法、流体流动算法、几何控制沉积算法、经验数值逼近算法、沉积物搬运的构造校正算法.目前,国外学者对以海平面升降、构造沉降和沉积物供应为主控因素的层序地层概念模拟的适用性提出了质疑,并对层序控制因素的多样性和不确定性进行了深入的研究.结合当前的研究进展,提出了层序控制因素的"多变量系统"观点,将层序的控制因素分为综合变量和独立变量,进一步指出如果假设综合变量为独立变量,则可以简化层序模拟,假设越多,模拟越简单,但模拟结果越粗略;要使模拟结果真实地反映实际地层特征,就要尽可能采用独立变量.     

基于空间公平理论的公共交通服务评价——以深圳市为例

使用空间无关的公平性衡量指数评价公交服务时,会忽视公交服务需求与供给的空间分布特征.为解决此问题,论文提出基于空间公平理论的公交服务评价框架,即通过构建综合基尼系数与莫兰指数的空间公平评价方法,实现整体尺度公交服务评价;通过对分析单元上相对需求与相对供给变量的匹配关系、空间差距进行分析,实现局部尺度公交服务评价,对整体...     

一类带有负顾客且具有反馈的M/G/1可修排队系统

研究了一类带有负顾客且具有反馈的M/G/1可修排队系统,正顾客服务完会以一定的概率立即排到队尾等待下一次服务,而以一定的补概率离开系统,永不再来。服务规则是先到先服务,负顾客抵消排队系统中的中间顾客（RCM）。使用“补充变量法”和状态转移方程分析该模型,得到了这一模型的排队指标和可靠性指标,并且发现此类排队系统完全取决于队长为2的概率。     

机载多光谱LiDAR的随机森林地物分类

机载多光谱LiDAR技术利用激光进行探测和测距,不仅可以快速获取地面物体的三维坐标,还可以获得多个波段的地物光谱信息,可广泛用于地形测绘、土地覆盖分类、环境建模、森林资源调查等。本文提出了多光谱LiDAR的随机森林地物分类方法。该方法通过对LiDAR强度数据和高程数据提取分类特征,完成多光谱LiDAR的随机森林地物分类;并分析随机森林的特征贡献度特性,采用后向特征选择方法实现分类特征选择。通过对加拿大Optech Titan多光谱LiDAR数据的试验表明：随机森林方法可以获得较好的地物分类精度,而且可以适当地去除部分冗余和相关的特征,从而有效提高分类精度。