多尺度ARMA残差修正模型震前电离层TEC异常探测

为提高电离层总电子含量（total electronic content,TEC）扰动探测参考背景值的预测精度,提出了多尺度自回归移动平均（autoregressive moving average,ARMA）残差修正模型。通过对比该方法、ARMA模型、四分位距法（inter quartile range,IQR）及滑动时窗法对TEC背景值的预测精度,结果显示修正模型预测的TEC背景值平均相对精度为89.78%,分别比ARMA模型、IQR及滑动时窗法高5.18%、1.41%和1.42%,且预测值的残差绝对值小于等于3.0 TECU的百分比为91.67%,明显优于其他3种方法,说明修正模型探测震前TEC异常是可行的。利用该方法探测2013-04-20芦山县Mw7.0级地震震前电离层TEC扰动情况,验证了该方法的有效性。实验结果表明,震前第9天和第13天电离层明显的正异常和震前第1~4天明显的负异常极可能是孕育地震引起的,且正异常主要出现在08:00-10:00 UT,而负异常主要集中在0:00-14:00 UT。     

浮动车数据的混合修复方法

针对浮动车数据出现的丢失、错误及冗余现象,结合均值统计与地图匹配,提出一种浮动车数据混合修复方法。基于此方法,构建了浮动车数据筛选及修复流程,较好地实现了对浮动车数据的有效筛选及修复,并对浮动车数据混合修复方法进行了验证,证明该方法具有可行性和有效性。     

一种基于ArcGIS的地名地址内外业一体化采集方法

利用ArcGIS的工程模板技术、GPS定位、数据库编辑追踪、空间赋值,根据时间进行要素与照片匹配等功能,开发了相关辅助程序。此技术路线大大降低了项目所需各类成本,提高了地名地址数据获取及处理的效率。     

灰关联GM(1,N)模型在建筑物沉降分析中的应用

针对建筑物沉降变形中各监测点相互关联、相互影响的情形,可将灰色系统理论中的GM(1,N)模型引入到建筑物沉降分析中。本文利用灰度关联方法确定相关因子的关联度,建立GM(1,N)模型,并与回归分析、GM(1,1)模型比较。通过工程实例,得出灰关联GM(1,N)模型预测精度明显高于另外两种模型,验证了该模型在进行建筑物沉降分析预测中应用的可行性。     

IU Cancri:a solar-type contact binary with mass transfer

We present new CCD photometry of the solar-type contact binary IU Cnc, which was observed from November 2017 to March 2018 with three small telescopes in China. BV light curves imply that IU Cnc is a W-type contact binary with total eclipses. The photometric solution indicates that the mass ratio and fill-out factor are q = 4.104 ± 0.004 and f = 30.2%± 0.3%, respectively. From all available light minimum times, the orbital period may increase at a rate of dP/dt =+6.93(4)× 10^-7 d yr^-1, which may result from mass transfer from the secondary component to the primary one. With mass transferring,IU Cnc may evolve from a contact configuration into a semi-detached configuration.     

New photometric investigation of the low-mass-ratio contact binary star V1853 Orionis

Four-color charge-coupled device(CCD) light curves in the B, V, Rc and I c bands of the totaleclipsing binary system V1853 Orionis(V1853 Ori) are presented. By comparing our light curves with those published by previous investigators, it is determined that the O'Connell effect on the light curves has disappeared. By analyzing those multi-color light curves with the Wilson-Devinney code(W-D code),it is discovered that V1853 Ori is an A-type intermediate-contact binary with a degree of contact factor of f = 33.3%(3.7%) and a mass ratio of q = 0.1896(0.0013). Combining our 10 newly determined times of light minima together with others published in the literature, the period changes of the system are investigated. We found that the general trend of the observed minus calculated(O-C) curve shows a downward parabolic variation that corresponds to a long-term decrease in the orbital period with a rate of d P/dt =-1.96(0.46)×10^-7 d yr^-1. The long-term period decrease could be explained by mass transfer from the more-massive component to the less-massive one. By combining our photometric solutions with data from Gaia DR_2, absolute parameters were derived as M_1 = 1.20 M⊙, M_2 = 0.23 M⊙, R_1 = 1.36 R⊙and R_2 = 0.66 R⊙. The long-term period decrease and intermediate-contact configuration suggest that V1853 Ori will evolve into a high fill-out overcontact binary.     

CCD astrometric observations of 2017 VR12, Camillo and Midas

We have observed three near-Earth objects(NEOs), 2017 VR12, Camillo and Midas, during 2018.The observations were made with the 1-m telescope, operated by Yunnan Observatories, over two nights.Their precise astrometric positions are derived from 989 CCD observations. The theoretical positions of asteroids are retrieved from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL) Horizons System and Institut de M′ecanique C′eleste et de Calcul des ′Eph′em′erides(IMCCE). The positions of three asteroids are measured with respect to stars in the Gaia DR2 star catalog. For 2017 VR12, the means(O-C) of right ascension and declination are -0.090′′and-0.623′′respectively based on the published JPL ephemeris, but the corresponding means(O-C) are 3.122′′and-0.636′′based on the published IMCCE ephemeris. The great difference in declination could be explained by several factors.(1) The degraded CCD images caused by the fast apparent motion of the objects lead to a reduction in positioning accuracy.(2) The poor timing system may introduce systematic errors, especially in the high speed direction.(3) The asteroid may be perturbed by Earth when it approaches the Earth too closely. These astrometric results demonstrate that the centroid centering method can reduce the dispersion of non-Gaussian images as compared with the PSF modeling method.For Camillo and Midas, the astrometric results are consistent based on the two ephemerides. Implementing a high-precision timing system, and analyzing some astronomical effects and geometric distortions in CCD images should be carefully considered in future works.     

Transition-region explosive events produced by plasmoid instability

Magnetic reconnection is thought to be a key process in most solar eruptions. Thanks to highresolution observations and simulations, the studied scale of the reconnection process has become smaller and smaller. Spectroscopic observations show that the reconnection site can be very small, which always exhibits a bright core and two extended wings with fast speeds, i.e., transition-region explosive events.In this paper, using the PLUTO code, we perform a 2-D magnetohydrodynamic simulation to investigate small-scale reconnection in double current sheets. Based on our simulation results, such as the line-of-sight velocity, number density and plasma temperature, we can synthesize the line profile of SiIV 1402.77? which is a well known emission line used to study transition-region explosive events on the Sun. The synthetic line profile of Si IV 1402.77? is complex with a bright core and two broad wings which can extend to nearly 200 km s^-1. Our simulation results suggest that the transition-region explosive events on the Sun are produced by plasmoid instability during small-scale magnetic reconnection.     

Numerical simulation and preliminary analysis of typhoon waves during three typhoons in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

In this study,typhoon waves generated during three typhoons(Damrey(1210),Fung-wong(1416),and Chan-hom(1509))in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea were simulated in a simulating waves nearshore(SWAN)model,and the wind forcing was constructed by combining reanalyzed wind data with a Holland typhoon wind model.Various parameters,such as the Holland fitting parameter(B)and the maximum wind radius?,were investigated in sensitivity experiments in the Holland model that affect the wind field construction.Six different formulations were considered and the parameters determined by comparing the simulated wind results with in-situ wind measurements.The key factors affecting wave growth and dissipation processes from deep to shallow waters were studied,including wind input,whitecapping,and bottom friction.Comparison with in-situ wave measurements suggested that the KOMEN scheme(wind input exponential growth and whitecapping energy dissipation)and the JONSWAP scheme(dissipation of bottom friction)resulted in good reproduction of the significant wave height of typhoon waves.A preliminary analysis of the wave characteristics in terms of wind-sea and swell wave revealed that swell waves dominated with the distance of R to the eye of the typhoon,while wind-sea prevailed in the outer region up to six to eight times the R values despite a clear misalignment between wind and waves.The results support the hypothesis that nonlinear wave-wave interactions may play a key role in the formation of wave characteristics.     

基于图像的天体搜索研究与自动化集成软件开发

天体搜索是天文数据处理流程的一个重要环节,也是以平方公里阵列射电望远镜(Square Kilometre Array, SKA)为代表的下一代射电望远镜在面向海量数据处理中的挑战之一.现今天体自动搜索算法、软件已日趋成熟并投入应用,不过在自动化、兼容性等方面仍具有提升空间.以更自动化、更适应海量数据需求的天体搜索算法研究为宗旨,以现有算法为研究基础,天体自动搜索软件系统得到设计和开发.该系统包含友好的交互式用户操作界面,具备可视化输出数据显示、兼容不同数据输入和输出并包含为实际应用服务的文件管理功能.该系统对于大天区图以及图像集,均能够很好地进行自动化处理.测试结果显示,上述方法对于天体搜索的改进有一定成效.后续将在此基础上对该集成系统做进一步的改进开发,以适应更多的需求.