华北盛夏暴雨过程的能量特征分析

本文利用实况资料和T213输出资料,对发生在2005年8月16日～17日的华北暴雨过程进行了能量学特征分析,结果表明:暴雨前24h～36h,对流层上下层有暖湿空气同时发展,是暴雨发生的重要动力机制;强的干、湿静力能锋区稳定维持是这次大范围暴雨产生的能量基础,中低层湿静力能差值大于0,且数值很大,说明对流不稳定层结很强,暴雨发生在高能、高不稳定度的条件下;水汽的充足补给作用,是这次暴雨过程能量转换的基础。     

用雷达观测资料改进MM5初始场的初步试验研究

采用同时调整热力学和动力学变量，并考虑湿度与温度的变化相协调的初始化方法，引进雷达资料改善MM5模式的初始场。试验结果表明：经过优化处理的初始场，显著提高了模式对降水特别是甚短时(0～6h)降水的落区和量的预报准确率。其中调整热力学变量对改进降水落区预报比动力学变量的调整更为重要。     

Long-Term Trend and Abrupt Change for Major Climate Variables in the Upper Yellow River Basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and pan evaporation from 23 meteorological stations in the upper Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2001, the feasibility of using hypothesis test techniques to detect the long-term trend for major climate variables has been investigated. Parametric tests are limited by the assumptions such as the normality and constant variance of the error terms. Nonparametric tests have not these additional assumptions and are better adapted to the trend test for hydro-meteorological time series. The possible trends of annual and monthly climatic time series are detected by using a non-parametric method and the abrupt changes have been examined in terms of 5-yr moving averaged seasonal and annual series by using moving T-test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method, and Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.8℃in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years. The warmest center was located in the northern part of the basin. The nonlinear tendency for annual precipitation was negative during the same period. The declining center for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the center of the basin. The variation of annual precipitation in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years exhibited an increasing tendency from 1972 to 1989 and a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2001. The nonlinear tendencies for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were also negative. They have decreased by 125.6 h and 161.3 mm during the past 42 years, respectively. The test for abrupt changes by using MTT method shows that an abrupt wanning occurred in the late 1980s. An abrupt change of the annual mean precipitation occurred in the middle 1980s and an abrupt change of the mean sunshine duration took place in the early 1980s. For the annual mean pan evaporation, two abrupt changes took place in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The test results of the Yamamoto method show that the abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1980s, and two acute abrupt changes were tested for the spring pan evaporation in 1981 and for the annual mean temperature in 1985. According to the Mann-Kendall method, the abrupt changes of the temperature mainly occurred in the 1990s, the pan evaporation abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1960s, and the abrupt changes of the sunshine duration primarily took place in the 1980s. Although the results obtained by using three methods are different, it is undoubted that jumps have indeed occurred in the last four decades.     

海拉尔盆地贝尔凹陷伸展断层转折褶皱作用及其对沉积作用的制约

海拉尔盆地是叠置于内蒙－大兴安岭古生代碰撞造山带之上的中新生代盆地,总体上呈北东向展布,由3坳、2隆5个一级构造单元组成,自西向东依次为扎贲诺尔坳陷、嵯岗隆起、贝尔湖坳陷、巴彦山隆起和呼和湖坳陷, 其中贝尔凹陷是贝尔湖坳陷南部的1个二级构造单元。贝尔凹陷的控陷断层为1个上凸、2个上凹断层转折组合构成的犁式正断层,在深部发育伸展双重构造。在犁式正断层上盘由于上凸断层转折产生的活动轴面与断层面为同旋向剪切,而上凹断层转折产生的活动轴面与断层面为反旋向剪切,在断层上盘形成2个背斜中间夹1个向斜的构造组合。由活动轴面与固定轴面之间滚动面的宽度确定控陷断层F₁在早白垩世南屯期晚期的水平伸展量为6 850 m。贝尔坳陷伸展断层转折褶皱的几何学和运动学特征,反映了断层滑移速率、构造沉降速率和沉积速率对凹陷内沉积地层变形特征的影响和构造活动对沉积作用和油气地质条件的制约。贝尔凹陷南屯组上段内部角度不整合的形成与变形作用中的剥蚀作用和沉积间断无关,而是由于半地堑从略欠补偿充填向过补偿充填状态转变时,沉积速率相对于构造沉降速率显著增加所致。     

煌斑岩—硫化物熔体液态不混溶作用的高温高压实验研究

本文以云南老王寨金矿区煌斑岩和黄铁矿为初始物,在1.5～3.0GPa、1162～1560℃条件下进行了煌斑岩—硫化物熔体液态不混溶作用实验。结果表明,煌斑岩硫化物熔体的液态不混溶作用可能发生于岩浆演化的早期（高压条件）,但如有硫存在,在岩浆演化的各个阶段（高压条件→低压条件）均可能出现煌斑岩硫化物熔体的液态不混溶作用;与煌斑岩熔体分离的硫化物熔体在温度场、压力场中作定向运移,逐渐聚集于相对低温、低压区;由于硫化物熔体的密度相对较大,因而与煌斑岩熔体之间出现明显的分层现象。     

水文双变量重现期分析及在干旱中应用

单变量水文统计中一些广为接受的概念在多变量环境下尚缺乏深入分析,也易被误解,如N年内重现期大于等于T的多变量事件发生的次数与N/T的关系。实践中,多变量联合重现期与其边缘分布变量重现期的一些经验关系被发现并通过了案例验证分析,但缺乏解释和推导。基于GH Copula推导了双变量联合重现期与边缘分布变量重现期的关系以及双变量事件发生次数与其重现期、变量相关程度间的定量关系。以昆明56年的逐月SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)和SRI(Standardized Runoff Index)识别了干旱事件,采用GH Copula构建了干旱历时和烈度的联合分布函数,验证了双变量联合重现期与边缘分布变量重现期的关系以及多变量事件发生次数与其重现期的定量关系。表明不宜以“and”第1重现期是否接近于比该干旱事件的旱情更重的干旱发生的平均时间间隔来说明干旱特征值重现期分析的合理性。变量的相关性不强时,需谨慎采用边缘分布变量重现期的较大值近似代替“and”事件的第1重现期。     

多层弹性平面问题解的精确刚度矩阵法

从平面弹性力学的基本方程出发,利用Fourier积分变换等数学手段,推导出了单层平面问题的刚度矩阵,然后按有限元法组成总体刚度矩阵。通过求解由总体刚度矩阵所构成的代数方程和Fourier积分逆变换,得到在任意静荷载作用下多层弹性平面问题的精确解。由于刚度矩阵不含有正指数项,计算时不会出现溢出现象,从而克服了传递矩阵法的缺点。推导过程中摒弃了应力函数的选择,使得问题的求解更加合理化,同时也为进一步研究此类问题如温度场、动力学等奠定了理论基础。计算实例证明了推导结果的准确性。     

青藏高原东部基于噪声的面波群速度分布特征

通过收集青海、甘肃、四川三省的76个地震台记录的2008年1—12月三分量的连续噪声数据,利用噪声面波层析成像的方法获得了青藏高原东部的面波群速度分布特征。首先采用多重滤波方法提取了1 000多条台站对5～50 s的三分量面波群速度频散曲线,然后将研究区域划分为0.2°×0.2°的网格,利用O ccam方法反演了瑞利波(R-R)和勒夫波(T-T)的群速度分布。反演得到的群速度分布特征与地表地质和构造特征表现出较好的相关性,清晰地揭示了地壳内部的横向速度变化。层析成像的结果显示在短周期(8～20 s)内,拥有较厚的沉积层的四川盆地表现为明显的低速特征,而青藏高原东部则表现为较高的群速度分布特征;随着周期的增加(>20 s),群速度的分布特征呈现出与短周期相反的特性,青藏高原东部下方的速度远远低于四川盆地,这可能与青藏高原东部中、下地壳低速层相关联,同时也意味着研究区域的地壳结构具有明显的横向不均匀性。在群速度分布图上,龙门山不仅是四川盆地与青藏高原的地形和构造分界带,同时也对应着高群速度与低群速度的过渡带。     

西天山特克斯达坂晚古生代若干不整合的厘定及地质意义

地层不整合接触是研究地质发展历史及鉴定地壳运动特征和运动时期的重要依据。通过1：5万区域地质调查,在西天山特克斯达坂一带晚古生代地层中厘定出6个不整合面,证实区内乃至天山地区曾有过至少6幕褶皱运动,丰富了研究区的幕式褶皱内容。新确立了特克斯运动（东图津河组与科古琴山组之间的角度不整合）,证实了天山主褶皱幕是鄯善运动,是记录塔里木板块与准噶尔板块碰撞缝合的重要构造运动。特克斯运动等6幕褶皱运动为天山地区构造演化研究提供了更为详尽的幕式演化信息。