Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report （AR4） are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model （FGOALS） developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAP/CAS）, including the ＂Climate of the 20th century experiment＂, ＂CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment＂ and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios AIB and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show： （1） from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temper- ature increases about 0.5℃ and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model＇s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; （2） the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6℃ in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5℃ and 2.4℃ in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.     

沙漠化:从圈层耦合到全球变化

从沙漠化概念提出伊始 ,沙漠化成因机理的研究就一直成为学术界关注的焦点。沙漠化过程究竟有多少是由自然因素所致 ,多少是由人类活动所为 ,诸因素与沙漠化之间有何内在关系 ,沙尘天气发生发展过程及其诱因等 ,当属地球系统科学应解决的难题。文章从全球变化的角度 ,将沙漠系统视作一种类生命的非线性动力系统 ,指出沙漠化源于地球表层系统各圈层之间复杂的相关与耦合作用 :气候变化是控制沙漠进退的首要因素 ;陆表水持续亏损则是导致干旱、半干旱地区沙漠化发展的直接原因 ;岩石圈构造运动塑造了不同的地形地貌单元 ,奠定了沙漠分布的地理格局 ;人类的不当活动和气候变化引起的生物生产力的衰退及土地覆盖的破坏 ,造成了现代沙漠化的快速扩张。     

中国地质环境的基本特征及其对人类工程活动的制约

为了协调人一地关系，首先需要认识地质环境本身的基本特征，从大地构造环境，自然地理环境，水文地质条件及自然地质作用的区域性特征四个方面论述了中国地质环境的基本特征，并讨论了这些基本特征对人类工程活动的制约。     

不同年度收存的褶皱臂尾轮虫休眠卵的孵化及滞育胚胎“激活”效果的研究

比较了 1 985— 1 998年间由同一褶皱臂尾轮虫 (Brachionusplicatilis)种群在实验室内历年产生并收存的休眠卵的孵化效果 ,并初步探讨了胚胎“激活”处理对孵化的影响。结果表明 ,休眠卵的收存年度或时间对其在一定孵育期内的总孵化率 (THR)和日孵化率 (DHR)有极显著影响 (x2 检验 ,p<0 .0 0 1 ) ,但THR和DHR与储存时间间均无显著的相关性 ,而是呈极大波动。同时发现“激活”作用具有促使孵化高峰提前到来、增强孵化同步性的双重功效 ,从而可明显缩短孵育时间 ,提高孵化速率。但“激活”前后多数卵样的总孵化率无显著变化 (p >0 .0 5 )。详细讨论了可能导致孵化率波动的多种因素 ,例如遗传变异、培养历史、储存及孵化的环境条件等。     

Impact of Human Activities on Depositional Process of Tidal Flat in Quanzhou Bay of China

As a very important component of a coastal system,tidal flats come to be a focus of the studies on land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone because those areas are subjected to intense human activities and are highly sensitive to the global change.The Quanzhou Bay,located along the middle part of Fujian coast of China,covers about 136.4km2,and the area of coastal wetland in the entire bay from intertidal to subtidal with 6m of water depth accounts for 96% of the total area.Seven short cores were collected and divided in situ with the interval of 5cm on the coastal wetlands of Quanzhou Bay on April 19,2006.The sediment samples were scattered and the grain sizes were measured by using Mastersizer 2000.Human beings' activities on tidal flat have disturbed the vertical distribution of sediments in stratigraphic sequence and accelerated the sedimentation rates.Grain size analysis results show that the grain size diameters increase and sediment becomes worse sorted towards the sea under the strong human disturbance;Spartina alterniflora can play a role of trapping the fine sediment;but near the bank,the sediment becomes coarse and there are two peak values on frequency curve influenced by the sandpile.The trough formed by human activities along the coastline changes the transport path of water and suspended sediment.The sediments are transported through the trough and deposit in it during the flood;the ebb flow is retarded by the flow output through the adjacent trough,and the deposited sediment can not be re-suspended;then,the sedimentation rate increases.In situ observation show that the sedimentation rate is about 8-10cm/yr.     

唐朝末年以来广西柳州干湿变化及人类活动演变

中世纪暖期和小冰期是近2 000年气候变化中重要的气候事件,厘清其在低纬度地区干湿变化特征及其对古代农业发展及人口增长的影响,具有重要的意义。通过对广西柳州岩溶洞穴中一60 cm岩芯进行孢粉、炭屑分析发现,研究区的气候、稻作农业从唐末以来先后经历了6个阶段演化：1）875―940 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：研究区气候整体偏干,水稻种植减少;2）940―1 050 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：夏季风增强,水稻种植稍增长,人口增加;3）1 050―1 140 a A.D.,C/P值及花粉记录指示：夏季风减弱,稻作农业及人口较前期有所增长;4）1 140―1370 a A.D.,C/P值及莎草科花粉含量指示：研究区当时气候处于“中世纪暖期”温暖湿润期,稻作农业面积扩大,人口增加;5）1 370―1 900 a A.D.,C/P值及莎草科花粉含量指示：“小冰期”气候变干,水稻种植及人口逐渐减少;6）1 900―2 009 a A.D.气候变暖湿,水稻种植扩大,人口迅速增长。进一步对研究区气候事件与稻作农业及人口关系研究发现：历史时期气候事件与水稻种植、人口具有耦合关系,即中世纪暖期,气候暖湿,水稻种植扩大,人口增殖;小冰期,气候冷干,水稻种植萎缩,人口锐减。在非原地沉积时,莎草科和C/P 对水分反映敏感,可以用来指示气候干湿变化。     

论华北地区河口衰亡

河口衰亡是指河口空间形态、河口作用过程及河口功能的衰亡。河口衰亡的主导诱因是人类对河流所实施的水利工程活动。河口衰亡将引起海岸侵蚀、河口淤积、河口环境退化等一系列问题。     

让人类、动物和自然永远和谐共存

从1972年开始,6月5日就成为了全球共同关注环境保护和环境改善的重要日子。34年的努力令人深感,关注可以遏制破坏,关注可以带来改善。虽然我们还不得不痛心地面对雨林的消失、水质的污染．物种的灭亡．以及今年环境日主题所揭示的土地沙漠化等现象。也唯如此,我谨怀着诚挚之心,向令人尊敬的联合国环境规划署,     

微囊藻毒素对人类健康影响相关研究的回顾

本文回顾了微囊藻毒素(MC,一种最常见而重要的蓝藻毒素)对人类健康影响相关的研究,迄今为止的一些重要历史事件包括:(1)1990年,科学家首次发现,MC进入肝细胞后,能强烈地抑制蛋白磷酸酶(PP1、PP2A)的活性,这是MC致毒的最重要的分子基础;(2)1996年,在巴西发生了肾透析用水被MC(-LR、-YR和-AR)污染导致52人死亡的严重事件;(3)中国南方原发性肝癌的高发病率被认为与饮水中的MC污染有关;(4)1998年,世界卫生组织提出了饮用水中MC-LR含量的临时指导值为1μg/L;(5)从巢湖的专业渔民血液中检测出MCs,并发现长期的低剂量慢性暴露引起了一定程度的肝损伤,微囊藻毒素对人类健康的影响证据确凿,不容忽视,尤其是在富营养化越演越烈、有毒蓝藻水华肆虐的今天.     

浅谈人类的情感认同与地名使用的关系

当前,保护历史地名、维护历史地名的尊严、注重历史地名与人类情感的历史传承,已经成为时代不可缺少的的主题一部分,它不仅被地名研究者所重视,而且也越来越受到社会各界,特别是受到重视传统文化保护的有识之士的高度关注。本文以云南省澄江县的历史地名为例,对人类的情感认同与地名使用的关系进行了分析,认为形象的地名用字是家乡的真实情感传承的桥梁、是本地区所具有的独特的历史文化积淀,是这个地区的内韵之所在。