一种新的网络中层管理者方案

提出一种新的基于 Ｓ Ｎ Ｍ Ｐｖ２ 的中层管理者方案以弥补 Ｍ２ Ｍ Ｍ Ｉ Ｂ的不足,其轮询方法和报警机制优于现有同类产品,且具有更好的安全性和互操作性。     

Creating adaptive social-ecological fit: The role of regional actors in the governance of Sea-level rise adaptation in San Francisco bay

Sea level rise is one of the most pressing climate adaptation issues around the world. Often, coastal communities are interdependent in their exposure to sea level rise – if one builds a seawall, it will push water to another – and would benefit from a coordinated adaptive response. The literature on social-ecological systems (SES) calls for actors placed at higher levels of governance (e.g. regional government in a metropolitan area) to improve coordination between local managers by serving as brokers. However, we lack empirical insight on how higher-level actors might improve coordination in practice, and theoretical development on the implications of their intermediation. To address these gaps, we study the case of adaptation to sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay Area. We build a social-ecological network of social actors and shoreline segments using original survey data and simulated scenarios of tidal and traffic interdependencies between shoreline segments. We perform a frequency analysis of network motifs that operationalize social-ecological ‘fit’ in the context of the Bay Area. We find that regional actors and non-governmental organizations increase social-ecological fit by providing intermediation between actors who work on different shoreline segments, whether interdependent or not. This shows that these actors provide adaptive social-ecological fit, future-proofing the Bay Area to current and future climate adaptation challenges.     

Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections

Rapid declines in Arctic sea ice coverage over the past four decades have increased the commercial feasibility of trans-Arctic routes. However, the historical changes in navigability of trans-Arctic routes remain unclear, and projections by global circulation models (GCMs) contain large uncertainties since they cannot simulate long-term Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we determined the changes in trans-Arctic routes from 1979 to 2019 by combining two harmonized high-quality daily sea ice products. We found that the trans-Arctic routes are becoming navigable much faster than projected by the GCMs. The navigation season for open water (OW) vessels along the Northeast Passage (NEP) has lengthened from occasionally navigable in the 1980 s to 92 ± 15 days in the 2010 s. In contrast, previous GCM projections have suggested that navigability would not be achieved until the mid-21st century. The 90-day safety shipping area for OW vessels expanded by 35% during 1979–2018, reaching 8.28 million km² in 2018, indicating an increasing rate of 0.08 ± 0.01 million km² per year. The shortest trans-Arctic routes were also shifted further north than the model projections. Regular ships have been able to safely travel north along the islands in the NEP and transit through the M’Clure Strait in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the 2010 s, while previous studies have projected that this would not be feasible until the mid-21st century. We also found that the improved navigability of trans-Arctic routes enables commercial ships to transport approximately 33–66% (at the same load factor) more goods from East Asia to Europe during the Arctic shipping season than by the traditional Suez Canal route. These findings highlight the need for aggressive actions to develop mandatory rules that promote navigation safety and strengthen environmental protection in the Arctic.     

基于粗糙集的BP神经网络在震例中的应用研究

采用《中国震例》作为数据源,通过初步整理分析和预处理,构建了较完备的震例研究样本集。尝试将粗糙集与BP神经网络相结合的方法引入到震例研究中,用基于粗糙集的属性约简算法从众多复杂的地震异常指标中筛选出对最终分类起决定作用的核心异常作为输入,震级作为输出,构建了泛化能力强的BP神经网络模型来模拟异常与地震之间的不确定关系。仿真测试结果表明:地震震级预测精度误差基本控制在-0.5～0.5级之间。     

基于CALIPSO卫星资料的京津冀地区MODIS卷云云顶高度订正

卷云在大气辐射中扮演着重要角色,对天气系统和气候变化产生重要影响。相比传统地基观测手段,卫星遥感更容易探测到高层卷云的信息,本文利用CALIOP主动遥感仪器可获取较为准确的薄卷云特性的特点,针对MODIS被动遥感探测器反演的薄卷云云顶高度的偏差开展订正研究。研究选取2013～2017年京津冀地区MODIS云产品,结合CALIPSO卫星的卷云云顶高度数据,基于交叉验证的方法得到线性拟合方案,对MODIS卷云云顶高度进行订正。订正后的MODIS与CALIPSO卷云云顶高度差值的分布区间由?3～2 km变为?2.0～2.5 km,峰值由?0.8 km左右变为0.2 km左右。订正效果随云顶高度和云光学厚度的不同有所变化,其中较低层卷云和光学薄卷云的订正效果更明显。     

北斗卫星通信在应急自动气象站中的应用

为了能够在发生灾难事故时进行紧急通信,应急自动气象站采用了北斗卫星导航定位系统的简短通信技术。在北斗卫星通信方式设计过程中,采取压缩数据包长度、主动传输+失败应答通信模式、对通信终端采取休眠工作等方式,在保证数据传输质量的同时减少不必要的通信次数,降低系统功耗,延长工作时间。研究结果表明,采用本文的通信设计,可以实现:1)将数据包长度压缩60%,满足了北斗卫星短信包的长度要求。2)兼顾解决了数据完整性问题和通信资费问题,在正常工作状态下采用自动定时传输模式节约通信资费;在通信失败的情况下采用主从应答通信模式,通过向自动气象站发出数据补收命令,及时取得丢失的数据。3)有效地降低了系统的功耗,通信终端平均功耗下降了10%。     

A New Scheme for Predicting Leaf Onset in Summer-Green Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere

A modified thermal time model(MTM) was developed to reproduce the leaf onset for summer-green vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The model adopts the basic concept of a thermal time model(TM) in that leaf onset is primarily triggered by growing degree days(GDD). Based on global phenology data derived from satellite observations, a new parameterization for the critical model parameter Tb(i.e., baseline temperature for GDD calculation) has been introduced, and the spatial distribution of Tb was calculated. Simulations of leaf onset during 1982–2000 in the range 30–90°N showed a significant improvement of MTM over the standard TM model with constant Tb. The mean error and mean absolute error of the climatological simulation were 1.11 and 6.8 days, respectively, and 90% of the model error(5th and 95 th percentiles) was between-12.4 and 13.7 days.     

遥感估算降水在西藏高原中的应用研究

采用遥感估算降水模型RFE 2.0(Rainfall Estimation Algorithm Version 2)模拟了2009年西藏高原的区域降水,并结合该地区气象站降水观测资料分别从日、月、年尺度上评价了该模型在西藏高原降水估算中的适用性,最后通过系数校正分析了2009年8月西藏高原降水量和年降水量的分布格局。结果表明,RFE2.0模型日降水量模拟值与观测值的相关系数在0.40以上的测站占46%,变化趋势较一致,但在日降水量较小时(接近零)模拟结果不稳定,在降水量较大时(>15mm)模拟结果一般会偏低;月平均降水量模拟结果与观测结果的相关系数在0.80以上的测站占62%,模拟结果较好地反映了观测结果的变化趋势,但个别月份的模拟结果会出现偏差。雨季降水量的模拟结果明显好于干季,为进一步提高模拟精度,确定雨季校正系数为1.133,干季校正系数为1.265;年尺度上降水量的模拟值与观测值的相关系数为0.368(P=0.026)。整体来看,遥感估算降水模型(RFE2.0)模拟的西藏高原降水结果较好,可为西藏高原降水模拟提供借鉴和参考。     

中国兴农网用户认证模块设计

中国兴农网自市场信息模块设立以来,吸引了越来越多的用户发布和浏览信息,而对这些信息及发布人行为的管理渐渐纳入日程。该文介绍了为中国兴农网信息发布系统提供的一个安全的用户认证系统,在实际操作中,PHP语言与Oracle数据库的结合使用较好地实现了这一目标,有效地实现了用户的管理,包括注册、修改、授权、删除等功能,并且通过用户的认证,安全地控制了农网市场信息的发布流程。该文从设计思路出发,探讨了功能设计、程序设计语言、数据库的选择与实现等几个具体的问题。     

利用防火墙软件实现市、县局用户共享上网

介绍采用W inRoute F irewall软件实现市、县局用户共享上网的方法,使市县局用户既能共享网络资源,又能有效地保障网络安全。