Analysis of Post-Failure Slope Movements within the Framework of Hazard and Risk Analysis

The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks.     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

The eastern Tonale fault zone: a ‘natural laboratory’ for crystal plastic deformation of quartz over a temperature range from 250 to 700 °C

Near the eastern end of the Tonale fault zone, a segment of the Periadriatic fault system in the Italian Alps, the Adamello intrusion produced a syn-kinematic contact aureole. A temperature gradient from 250 to 700 °C was determined across the Tonale fault zone using critical syn-kinematic mineral assemblages from the metasedimentary host rocks surrounding deformed quartz veins. Deformed quartz veins sampled along this temperature gradient display a transition from cataclasites to mylonites (frictional–viscous transition) at 280±30 °C. Within the mylonites, zones characterized by different dynamic recrystallization mechanisms were defined: Bulging recrystallization (BLG) was dominant between 280 and 400 °C, subgrain rotation recrystallization (SGR) in the 400–500 °C interval, and the transition to dominant grain boundary migration recrystallization (GBM) occurred at 500 °C. The microstructures associated with the three recrystallization mechanisms and the transitions between them can be correlated with experimentally derived dislocation creep regimes. Bulk texture X-ray goniometry and computer-automated analysis of preferred [c]-axis orientations of porphyroclasts and recrystallized grains are used to quantify textural differences that correspond to the observed microstructural changes. Within the BLG- and SGR zones, porphyroclasts show predominantly single [c]-axis maxima. At the transition from the SGR- to the GBM zone, the texture of recrystallized grains indicates a change from [c]-axis girdles, diagnostic of multiple slip systems, to a single maximum in Y. Within the GBM zone, above 630±30 °C, the textures also include submaxima, which are indicative of combined basal a- and prism [c] slip.     

Cenozoic tectonic events at the border of the Paraná Basin, São Paulo, Brazil

In the last decade, even in areas that had been considered tectonically stable, a great amount of Cenozoic, including the Quaternary period, structural data have been collected throughout Brazil. The main goal of this study is to describe the Cenozoic structures and tectonic evolution of an area that is located at the border of the Paraná Basin in the state of São Paulo.The research methods consisted of the analysis of: (1) brittle structure data, mainly conjugate fractures and fault slip data; (2) lineaments traced on air photos and TM Landsat and radar images; and (3) a second-order base surface map.The study area, during the Cenozoic, has been affected by five strike–slip tectonic events, which generated mainly strike–slip faults, and secondarily normal and reverse ones. The events were named, from the oldest to the youngest, E1-NE, E2-EW, E3-NW, E4-NS, and E5-NNE; and the maximum principal stresses σ1 strike approximately NE–SW, E–W, NW–SE, N–S, and NNE–SSW, respectively. Event E2-EW seems to have been contemporaneous with the deposition of the Rio Claro Formation, the most important Cenozoic deposit of probable Neogenic age, and also to have controlled the distribution of its deposits. Event E3-NW was the strongest one in the area, as is pointed out by structural data, and the maximum principal stress σ1 of event E5-NNE is partially concordant with the orientation of σH-max of well break-out data in the Paraná Basin, suggesting a Neotectonic activity for this event. Finally, discontinuities parallel and correlated to the directions of strike–slip faults of the Cenozoic events seem to have actively controlled the sculpturing of the relief in the study area.     

Rates of Deglaciation during the Last Glaciation and Holocene in the Cordillera Vilcanota-Quelccaya Ice Cap Region, Southeastern Perú

Moraine chronology is combined with digital topography to model deglacial rates of paleoglacier volumes in both the Huancané Valley on the west side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap and the Upismayo Valley on the northwest side of the Cordillera Vilcanota. The fastest rates of deglaciation (39×10⁻⁵ to 114×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ and 112×10⁻⁵ to 247×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹ for each valley, respectively) were calculated for the most recent paleoglaciers, corresponding to the last few centuries. These results are consistent with observations in the Venezuelan Andes showing high rates of deglaciation since the Little Ice Age. These rates also fall within the range of 20th century rates of deglaciation measured on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (29×10⁻⁵ to 220×10⁻⁵ km³ yr⁻¹, Brecher and Thompson, 1993; Thompson, 2000). These results imply that rates of deglaciation may fluctuate significantly over time and that high rates of deglaciation may not be exclusive to the late 20th century. Equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depressions for the ice volumes of the last glaciation modeled here were computed as 230 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap and 170 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota. Maximum ELA depressions are lower than previously published: <500 m for the Cordillera Vilcanota and <400 m for the Quelccaya Ice Cap. These lower values could imply a topographic control over paleoglacier extent.     

Unstable Climate Oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula

Core A9-EB2 from the eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula, consists of pelagic (diatom ooze-clay couplets and bioturbated diatom ooze) and hemipelagic (bioturbated mud) sediments interbedded with turbidites (homogeneous mud and silt–clay couplets). The cyclic and laminated nature of these pelagic sediments represents alternation between the deposition of diatom-rich biogenic sediments and of terrigenous sediments. Sediment properties and geochemical data explain the contrasting lamination, with light layers being finer-grained and relatively rich in total organic carbon and biogenic silica content. Also, the high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) variations highlight distinct features: high MS values coincide with clastic-rich sections and low MS values correspond to biogenic sections. The chronology developed for core A9-EB2 accounts for anomalous ages associated with turbidites and shows a linear sedimentation rate of approximately 87 cm/10³ yr, which is supported by an accumulation rate of 80 cm/10³ yr calculated from ²¹⁰Pb activity. The late Holocene records clearly identify Neoglacial events of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear in the MS record, suggesting intrinsically unstable climatic conditions during the late Holocene in the Bransfield Basin of Antarctic Peninsula.     

Small-Mammal Data on Early and Middle Holocene Climates and Biotic Communities in the Bonneville Basin, USA

Archaeological investigations in Camels Back Cave, western Utah, recovered a series of small-mammal bone assemblages from stratified deposits dating between ca. 12,000 and 500 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The cave's early Holocene fauna includes a number of species adapted to montane or mesic habitats containing grasses and/or sagebrush (e.g., Lepus townsendii, Marmota flaviventris, Reithrodontomys megalotis, and Brachylagus idahoensis) which suggest that the region was relatively cool and moist until after 8800 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Between ca. 8600 and 8100 ¹⁴C yr B.P. these mammals became locally extinct, taxonomic diversity declined, and there was an increase in species well-adapted to xeric, low-elevation habitats, including ground squirrels, Lepus californicus and Neotoma lepida. The early small-mammal record from Camels Back Cave is similar to the 11,300–6000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. mammalian sequence from Homestead Cave, northwestern Utah, and provides corroborative data on Bonneville Basin paleoenvironments and mammalian responses to middle Holocene desertification.     

Late-Glacial and Early Holocene Environmental and Climatic Change at Lake Tambichozero, Southeastern Russian Karelia

High-resolution lithostratigraphy, mineral magnetic, carbon, pollen, and macrofossil analyses, and accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C measurements were performed in the study of a sediment sequence from Lake Tambichozero, southeastern Russian Karelia, to reconstruct late-glacial and early Holocene aquatic and terrestrial environmental changes. The lake formed ca. 14,000 cal yr B.P. and the area around the lake was subsequently colonized by arctic plants, forming patches of pioneer communities surrounded by areas of exposed soil. A minor rise in lake productivity and the immigration of Betula pubescens occurred ca. 11,500 cal yr B.P. The rise in summer temperatures probably led to increased melting of remnant ice and enhanced erosion. The distinct increase in lake productivity and the development of open Betula-Populus forests, which are reconstructed based on plant macrofossil remains, indicate stable soils from 10,600 cal yr B.P. onward. Pinus and Picea probably became established ca. 9900 cal yr B.P.     

Late Quaternary Spring-Fed Deposits of the Grand Canyon and Their Implication for Deep Lava-Dammed Lakes

One of the most intriguing episodes in the Quaternary evolution of the Grand Canyon of the Colorado River, Arizona, was the development of vast lakes that are thought to have backed up behind lava erupted into the gorge. Stratigraphic evidence for these deep lava-dammed lakes is expectedly sparse. Possible lacustrine deposits at six areas in the eastern canyon yielded no compelling evidence for sediment deposited in a deep lake. At two of the sites the sediment was associated with late Quaternary spring-fed pools and marshes. Water-lain silt and sand at lower Havasu Creek was deposited 3000 cal yr ago. The deposit contains an ostracode assemblage similar to that living in the modern travertine-dammed pools adjacent to the outcrop. The second deposit, at Lees Ferry, formed in a spring-fed marsh 43,000 cal yr ago, as determined by ¹⁴C and amino acid geochronology. It contains abundant ostracode and mollusk fossils, the richest assemblages reported from the Grand Canyon to date. Our interpretation of these sediments as spring-fed deposits, and their relative youth, provides an alternative to the conventional view that deposits like these were formed in deep lava-dammed lakes that filled the Grand Canyon.     

Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.