水平分支注浆孔卡埋钻事故处理实践

近年来煤矿奥灰治水注浆定向钻进技术发展迅速,多分支超深水平注浆孔数量激增。在水平注浆孔施工过程中,普遍存在地层漏失量大,泥浆突然失返,小径钻孔裸孔段长,水平段孔眼轨迹复杂,控制难度大,靶点技术误差要求严,定向仪器、工具等价格昂贵,施工风险相对较高,极易发生埋钻卡钻事故。一旦发生卡钻事故,就会面临着处理周期长、处理难度大等问题,传统的卡埋钻处理方法在水平注浆孔中应用效果不明显。通过采用空压机输送压缩空气,破坏水平孔着床的沉砂结构,将着床的沉砂吹出孔外或吹入地层裂隙,成功地实现了解卡。总结了水平注浆孔施工中卡埋钻事故的预防措施。     

基于多尺度的中国环境污染事件时空分布及其影响因素

环境污染事件已成为人类社会发展面临的严峻挑战,严重制约着人类社会的可持续发展,当前急需厘清环境污染事件的时空特征及影响因素,为制定有效的环保政策提供借鉴。利用Theil指数、变异系数、ESDA等方法,分析了2006~2016年中国环境污染事件的时空分布特征,并借助地理探测器识别了不同尺度环境污染事件的影响因素。结果表明：① 2006~2016年省级尺度环境污染事件发生总频次与不同等级环境污染事件发生频次均呈波动下降趋势,其发生频次和区域差异呈“东-中-西”洼地型格局;② 地级市尺度环境污染事件发生频次随城市规模减小有所降低,随经济发展水平降低呈倒U型,同时,环保重点城市污染事件发生频次高于普通城市的特征;而环境污染事件的差异性表现为随城市规模减小有所降低,随经济发展水平降低而递减,及环保重点城市高于普通城市的特征。③ “胡焕庸线”以东地区环境污染事件多发且类型多样,以西地区污染事件少发且类型单一,不同等级环境污染事件的空间分布差异较大;④ 环境污染事件的影响因素存在差异,且随尺度增大,影响因素与环境污染事件的关联性趋于增强。其中,经济发展和环境监管水平对不同尺度环境污染事件均有显著影响,环境监管水平与其他因素的交互作用对不同尺度环境污染事件的解释力较高。     

基于博弈视角的中韩渔业事件成因与对策分析

近年来中韩渔业事件频发,引起社会广泛关注。文章通过构建博弈模型分析了中韩渔业事件的产生原因,并提出解决对策:中方应通过增殖放流等手段修复我国近海渔业资源;扶持渔民转业转产推进渔业产业结构调整;韩方应避免因暴力执法给两国关系造成伤害;双方应引入基于入渔配额分配机制的正向激励制度,破解当前冲突与困境。     

1995-2012年中国突发性环境污染事件时空演化特征及影响因素

利用ESDA空间统计分析方法和Matlab空间面板计量模型,对1995-2012年中国各地区发生的环境污染事件的时空演化特征和影响因素进行分析。结果表明:环境污染事件呈先动态增长后逐渐下降的趋势,水污染和大气污染事件是主要事故类型;环境污染事件发生的高频风险区域亦在逐渐减少,东南沿海及四川、湖南等中西部区仍有局部集聚的态势;1995-2000年中国的环境污染事件总体呈随机分布状态,2001年后则开始呈现集聚的特征;Moran散点图表明,局部的空间集聚先增强后减弱,环境污染事件近年来集中在泛长三角地区,高高地区为江浙沪;环境污染事件的重心转移方向主要为西南和东北,两个快速转移时期分别为1998-2001和2004-2007年,这与区域的产业转移和高负荷的污染排放压力有关;环境污染事件的发生与污染物的达标排放和控制、经济发展阶段及环境治理投入、环境监管能力、空间效应等因素有关。空间效应主要体现在空间邻近效应和空间溢出效应。未来应注重环境污染事故的区域联防联控,制定若干跨界污染事故的应急响应联动机制及环境污染区域联防联控机制。     

Factors explaining the dispersal of Hendra virus disease in South-East Queensland

Hendra virus (HeV) was first described in 1994 following the outbreak of a new disease fatally affecting horses and humans in South-east Queensland. The disease kills 70% of the infected horses and under some circumstances the virus is spread to humans who have had close contact with the infected horses. Fruit bats (Pteropus spp.) commonly known as flying foxes have been identified as the natural host of the virus. A preliminary analysis of the incidents and the flying fox roosting sites revealed a strong relationship between the temporary and seasonal roosting sites in the South-east Queensland. The aim of this paper is to determine the potential factors that can explain the dispersal of HeV incidents in the study area. Based on the preliminary results, a further analysis was done on the roosting sites by considering factors such as the species of flying foxes, foraging range and pregnancy period. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) revealed significant clustering of P. alecto and P. scapulatus species. Kernel density estimation analysis helped in identifying a strong relationship between P. alecto & P. scapulatus species density and the outbreak events in the study area. Buffer analysis established an initial relationship between P. alecto & P. poliocephalus species birth periods and the incidents. Ordinary least-squares regression identified P. poliocephalus species as statistically significant at a global context across the study area. Geographically weighted regression analysis was performed to study the local spatial variations of the explanatory variables. P. alecto & P. poliocephalus species exhibited a significant positive relationship in most of the regions where as pregnancy period variable exhibited a significant negative relationship to the HeV incidents in the study area.     

A critical portrait of hate crime/incident reporting in North East England: The value of statistical data and the politics of recording in an age of austerity

This paper contributes to research on the reporting of hate crime/incidents from a critical socio-spatial perspective. It outlines an analysis of third party reporting of hate crimes/incidents in the North East of England, based upon the work of Arch (a third party hate crime/incident reporting system). The data set is one of the largest of its kind in the UK and therefore presents a unique opportunity to explore patterns of reporting across different types of hate crimes/incidents through a system designed to go beyond criminal justice responses. Whilst not downplaying the significance of the harmful experiences to which this data refers, we are very aware of the limitations of quantitative and de-humanised approaches to understanding forms of discrimination. Therefore the paper adopts a critical position, emphasising that interpretation of the data provides a partial, yet important, insight into everyday exclusions, but also cultures and politics of reporting. While the data records incidents across the main ‘monitored strands’, analysis here particularly focuses on those incidents recorded on the basis of ‘race’ and religion. Our analysis allows us to both cautiously consider the value of such data in understanding and addressing such damaging experiences - but also to appreciate how such an analysis may connect with the changing landscape of reporting and the politics of austerity.     

海洋生态系统服务的内涵和损失评估的进展及争议

为实现充分补偿污染事故造成的海洋生态环境损害的目的,应当合理地评估生态环境损害的程度并将损失货币化.其中,海洋生态系统服务价值的损失评估是至关重要的组成部分.本文首先回顾了国内外学者对海洋生态系统服务的定义、分类指标体系和价值的研究进展,然后提出目前评估海洋生态系统服务的损害程度和货币化损害方法中存在的争议和问题,包括...     

Analysis of ship life cycles—The impact of economic cycles and ship inspections

Due to the shipping industry's international legal framework, there are loopholes in the system, which can increase the risk of incidents with high economic costs due to the substandard operation of vessels. This article uses duration analysis and through the creation of ship life cycles provides insight into the effectiveness of inspections on prolonging ship lives. The analysis accounts for fluctuations in the relevant economic environment and the (possibly time-varying) ship particulars. It is based on a unique dataset containing information on the timing of accidents, inspections and ship particular changes of more than 50,000 vessels over a 29-year time period (1978–2007). The results reveal that the shipping industry is a relatively safe industry but there is a possible over-inspection of vessels. The effect of inspections varies across ship types and the prevention of incidents with high economic costs can be improved by a coordinated approach of all types of inspections that are performed which allows the decrease of unnecessary inspections. Further, more emphasis should be placed on the rectification and follow-up of deficiencies and the implementation of the ISM code. Another added benefit for the industry would be to improve transparency related to class withdrawals and class transfers for all classification societies. Another interesting finding is that for the majority of ship types, an increase in earnings decreases the incident rate. This is in contrast to the industry perception of the impact of earnings.     

Compensating victims of a European Deepwater Horizon accident: OPOL revisited

The introduction sketches the importance of the Deepwater Horizon incident that occurred five years ago on 20 April 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. The question central to this contribution is how compensation would be provided if such an incident were to occur in European waters. A mechanism that plays an important role in Europe, more particularly for the North Sea is the Offshore Pollution Liability Association Limited, referred to as OPOL. Section 2 introduces OPOL by elaborating the origins, main features, membership rules, financial responsibility and claims handling. Section 3 discusses OPOL in the UK regulatory environment which is particularly interesting since OPOL membership in the UK is mandatory. Section 4 provides a critical analysis by first describing the practice of OPOL and next discussing the advantages and limits of this particular scheme. Section 5 discusses which insurance and financial instruments are used in Europe in areas where OPOL does not apply. In turn self-insurance, (re)insurance as well as risk-pooling schemes are discussed. Finally Section 6 examines to what extent it would be possible to expand OPOL either in amount or in geographical scope (more particularly beyond the North Sea). Section 7 concludes.     

Multiple hazard incidents lifecycle cost assessment of structural systems considering state‐dependent repair times and fragility curves

The performance and serviceability of structural systems during their lifetime can be significantly affected by the occurrence of extreme events. Despite their low probability, there is a potential for multiple occurrences of such hazards during the relatively long service life of systems. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for the assessment of lifecycle cost of infrastructures subject to multiple hazard events throughout their decision‐making time horizon. The framework entails the lifecycle costs of maintenance and repair, as well as the salvage value of the structure at the end of the decision‐making time horizon. The primary features of the proposed framework include accounting for the possibility of multiple hazard occurrences, incorporating effects of incomplete repair actions on the accumulated damage through damage state‐dependent repair times, and requiring limited resources in terms of input data and computational costs. A dynamic programming procedure is proposed to calculate the expected damage condition of the structure for each possibility of the number of hazard incidents based on state‐dependent fragility curves. The proposed framework is applied to a moment‐frame building located in a region with high seismicity, and lifecycle costs are evaluated for six retrofit plans. The results displayed variation in the ranking of the retrofit actions with respect to decision‐making time horizon. Furthermore, the sensitivity analyses demonstrated that disregarding repair time in the lifecycle cost analysis can result in false identification of unsafe retrofit actions as optimal and reliable strategies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.