Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.     

Hydrological trends and the evolution of catchment research in the Alptal valley,central Switzerland

When the observation of small headwater catchments in the pre-Alpine Alptal valley (central Switzerland) started in the late 1960s, the researchers were mainly interested in questions related to floods and forest management. Investigations of geomorphological processes in the steep torrent channels followed in the 1980s, along with detailed observations of biogeochemical and ecohydrological processes in individual forest stands. More recently, research in the Alptal has addressed the impacts of climate change on water supply and runoff generation. In this article, we describe, for the first time, the evolution of catchment research at Alptal, and present new analyses of long-term trends and short-term hydrologic behaviour. Hydrometeorological time series from the past 50 years show substantial interannual variability, but only minimal long-term trends, except for the ~2°C increase in mean annual air temperature over the 50-year period, and a corresponding shift towards earlier snowmelt. Similar to previous studies in larger Alpine catchments, the decadal variations in mean annual runoff in Alptal's small research catchments reflect the long-term variability in annual precipitation. In the Alptal valley, the most evident hydrological trends were observed in late spring and are related to the substantial change in the duration of the snow cover. Streamflow and water quality are highly variable within and between hydrological events, suggesting rapid shifts in flow pathways and mixing, as well as changing connectivity of runoff-generating areas. This overview illustrates how catchment research in the Alptal has evolved in response to changing societal concerns and emerging scientific questions.     

Modelling the effect of changing precipitation inputs on deep soil water utilization

Forests in the Southeastern United States are predicted to experience future changes in seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs as well as more variable precipitation events. These climate change‐induced alterations could increase drought and lower soil water availability. Drought could alter rooting patterns and increase the importance of deep roots that access subsurface water resources. To address plant response to drought in both deep rooting and soil water utilization as well as soil drainage, we utilize a throughfall reduction experiment in a loblolly pine plantation of the Southeastern United States to calibrate and validate a hydrological model. The model was accurately calibrated against field measured soil moisture data under ambient rainfall and validated using 30% throughfall reduction data. Using this model, we then tested these scenarios: (a) evenly reduced precipitation; (b) less precipitation in summer, more in winter; (c) same total amount of precipitation with less frequent but heavier storms; and (d) shallower rooting depth under the above 3 scenarios. When less precipitation was received, drainage decreased proportionally much faster than evapotranspiration implying plants will acquire water first to the detriment of drainage. When precipitation was reduced by more than 30%, plants relied on stored soil water to satisfy evapotranspiration suggesting 30% may be a threshold that if sustained over the long term would deplete plant available soil water. Under the third scenario, evapotranspiration and drainage decreased, whereas surface run‐off increased. Changes in root biomass measured before and 4 years after the throughfall reduction experiment were not detected among treatments. Model simulations, however, indicated gains in evapotranspiration with deeper roots under evenly reduced precipitation and seasonal precipitation redistribution scenarios but not when precipitation frequency was adjusted. Deep soil and deep rooting can provide an important buffer capacity when precipitation alone cannot satisfy the evapotranspirational demand of forests. How this buffering capacity will persist in the face of changing precipitation inputs, however, will depend less on seasonal redistribution than on the magnitude of reductions and changes in rainfall frequency.     

基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

Variations in glacier volume and snow cover and their impact on lake storage in the Paiku Co Basin,in the Central Himalayas

Glaciers and snow cover are important constituents of the surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The responses of these phenomena to global environmental changes are sensitive, rapid and intensive due to the high altitudes and arid cold climate of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on multisource remote sensing data, including Landsat images, MOD10A2 snow product, ICESat, Cryosat-2 altimetry data and long-term ground climate observations, we analysed the dynamic changes of glaciers, snow melting and lake in the Paiku Co basin using extraction methods for glaciers and lake, the degree-day model and the ice and lake volume method. The interaction among the climate, ice-snow and the hydrological elements in Paiku Co is revealed. From 2000 to 2018, the basin tended to be drier, and rainfall decreased at a rate of −3.07 mm/a. The seasonal temperature difference in the basin increased, the maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.02°C/a and the minimum temperature decreased at a rate of −0.06°C/a, which accelerated the melting from glaciers and snow at rates of 0.55 × 10⁷ m³/a and 0.29 × 10⁷ m³/a, respectively. The rate of contribution to the lake from rainfall, snow and glacier melted water was 55.6, 27.7 and 16.7%, respectively. In the past 18 years, the warmer and drier climate has caused the lake to shrink. The water level of the lake continued to decline at a rate of −0.02 m/a, and the lake water volume decreased by 4.85 × 10⁸ m³ at a rate of −0.27 × 10⁸ m³/a from 2000 to 2018. This evaluation is important for understanding how the snow and ice melting in the central Himalayas affect the regional water cycle.     

从太湖流域旱涝史料看历史气候信息处理

历史气候信息处理建立在信息提取的基础上,目的在于建立一套方法,将定性的历史气候信息转化为气候变化参数,并消除各种不均—性,从而建立历史气候序列。本文着重介绍建立太湖流域历史旱涝等级序列的方法与步骤: 1)确立信息源,建立信息网络;2)站点等级的确定与订正;3)弱信息处理;4)信息的综合。     

The possible response of life zones in China under global climate change

The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change.     

Evidence for a mid‐Pleistocene shift of ice‐drift pattern in the Nordic seas

Sediment proxy records from a continuous, 1.5 million year long deep‐sea sediment core from a site in the western Norwegian Sea were used to obtain new insights into the nature of palaeoceanographic change in the northern North Atlantic (Nordic seas) during the climatic shift of the Mid‐Pleistocene Revolution (MPR). Red‐green sediment colour and magnetic susceptibility records both reveal significant differences in their mean values when comparing the intervals older than 700 000 yr (700 ka) with those from the past 500 kyr. The timing and duration of these changes indicates that the MPR in the Nordic seas is characterised by a gradual transition lasting about 200 kyr. Together with further sedimentological evidence this suggests that the mid‐Pleistocene climate shift was accompanied by a general change in ice‐drift pattern. It is further proposed that prior to the onset of the major late Pleistocene glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere a significant proportion of the ice in the eastern Nordic seas originated from a southern provenance, whereas later it dominantly came from the surrounding landmasses. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical modelling of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia during the Holocene

The occurrence of permafrost in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia and its dependence on past and presently ongoing climatic variations was investigated with one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) numerical models by solving the transient heat conduction equation with latent heat effects included. The study area is characterized by discontinuous permafrost occurrences such as palsa mires and local mountain permafrost. The ground temperature changes during the Holocene were constructed using climatic proxy data. This variation was used as a forcing function at the ground surface in the calculations. Several versions of the present ground temperature were applied, resulting in different subsurface freezing–thawing conditions in the past depending on the assumed porosity and geothermal conditions.Our results suggest that in high altitude areas with a cold climate (present mean annual ground temperature between 0°C and −3°C), there may have been considerable variations in permafrost thickness (ranging from 0 to 150 m), as well as periods of no permafrost at all. The higher is the porosity of bedrock filled with ice, the stronger is the retarding effect of permafrost against climatic variations.Two-dimensional models including topographic effects with altitude-dependent ground temperatures and slope orientation and inclination dependent solar radiation were applied to a case of mountain permafrost in Ylläs, western Finnish Lapland, where bedrock permafrost is known to occur in boreholes to a depth of about 60 m. Modelling suggests complicated changes in permafrost thickness with time as well as contrasting situations on southern and northern slopes of the mountain.Extrapolating the climatic warming of the last 200 years to the end of the next century when the anticipated increase in the annual average air temperature is expected to be about 2 K indicates that the permafrost occurrences in bedrock in northern Fennoscandia would be thawing rapidly in low-porosity formations. However, already a porosity of 5% filled with ice would retard the thawing considerably.     

Late Holocene great earthquakes and relative sea‐level change at Kenai,southern Alaska

Kenai, located on the west coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, subsided during the great earthquake of AD 1964. Regional land subsidence is recorded within the estuarine stratigraphy as peat overlain by tidal silt and clay. Reconstructions using quantitative diatom transfer functions estimate co‐seismic subsidence (relative sea‐level rise) between 0.28±0.28 m and 0.70±0.28 m followed by rapid post‐seismic recovery. Stratigraphy records an earlier co‐seismic event as a second peat‐silt couplet, dated to ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP with 1.14±0.28 m subsidence. Two decimetre‐scale relative sea‐level rises are more likely the result of glacio‐isostatic responses to late Holocene and Little Ice Age glacier expansions rather than to co‐seismic subsidence during great earthquakes. Comparison with other sites around Cook Inlet, at Girdwood and Ocean View, helps in constructing regional patterns of land‐level change associated with three great earthquakes, AD 1964, ～950–850 cal. yr BP and ～1500–1400 cal. yr BP. Each earthquake has a different spatial pattern of co‐seismic subsidence which indicates that assessment of seismic hazard in southern Alaska requires an understanding of multiple great earthquakes, not only the most recent. All three earthquakes show a pre‐seismic phase of gradual land subsidence that marked the end of relative land uplift caused by inter‐seismic strain accumulation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.