Formation Pressure Evaluation Method for Single Well

The paper deals with the methods of formation pressure evaluation for a single well by using the very common ac-cepted parameters, such as drilling exponent , and flowline temperature , etc. which is part of compiling the end well report.     

相空间反演方法在表层水温预报中的应用

利用相空间理论及方法对渤、黄、东海共4个站位近十几年的旬平均SST进行分析。结果表明：表层水温具有混饨特性，其吸引子关联维数平均约为1．23、嵌入相空间维数为6（渤、黄海）和7（东海178号站位）、二阶Renyi熵平均约为3．7×10-4（1／d）及平均可预报时间尺度平均为27个点；基于以上分析结果运用相空间反演方法建立了旬平均SST的反演模型，并且在试预报的前5旬的最大相对误差约为4．2％。     

Effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship

The power-law exponent (n) in the equation: D=cL ⁿ , with D = maximum displacement and L = fault length, would be affected by deviations of fault trace length. (1) Assuming n=1, numerical simulations on the effect of sampling and linkage on fault length and length–displacement relationship are done in this paper. The results show that: (a) uniform relative deviations, which means all faults within a dataset have the same relative deviation, do not affect the value of n; (b) deviations of the fault length due to unresolved fault tip decrease the values of n and the deviations of n increase with the increasing length deviations; (c) fault linkage and observed dimensions either increase or decrease the value of n depending on the distribution of deviations within a dataset; (d) mixed deviations of the fault lengths are either negative or positive and cause the values of n to either decrease or increase; (e) a dataset combined from two or more datasets with different values of c and orders of magnitude also cause the values of n to deviate. (2) Data including 19 datasets and spanning more than eight orders of fault length magnitudes (10⁻²–10⁵ m) collected from the published literature indicate that the values of n range from 0.55 to 1.5, the average value being 1.0813, and the peak value of n _d (double regression) is 1.0–1.1. Based on above results from the simulations and published data, we propose that the relationship between the maximum displacement and fault length in a single tectonic environment with uniform mechanical properties is linear, and the value of n deviated from 1 is mainly caused by the sampling and linkage effects.     

储层岩石电性特征的逾渗网络模型研究(英文)

建立能够反映储层孔隙结构、流体特征的逾 渗网络模型,通过数值模拟研究了储层孔隙尺寸、 孔隙形状、连通性、微孔隙的发育状况等对I-Sw曲 线影响的定性规律,研究了地层水矿化度对岩石电 阻率的影响。分析讨论了不同因素对电阻率影响的 相对强度。最后,通过曲线拟合定量地研究了不同 因素对I-Sw曲线的影响规律。研究表明,在上述影 响因素中连通性和微孔隙对I-Sw曲线的影响很大, 其它因素的影响强度较小。地层水矿化度对岩石电 阻率绝对值的影响很大。“非阿尔奇”现象普遍存在, 在低渗透(低连通性)储层岩石中更为明显。     

二维随机介质模型正演指导复杂地层地震解释——以薄层砂泥岩交互地层为例

大港油田砂泥岩交互地层存在着非均质复杂地质形态,为保证其精细解释效果,根据随机过程理论,提出了选用二维指数型椭圆自相关函数为复杂非均质地质体进行简化建模的方法。正演算法使用交错网格有限差分法模拟弹性波在二维随机介质模型中的传播,激发方式使用自激自收模式。正演结果表明,随机介质模型模拟大港油田薄层砂岩互层地层具有合理性,交错网格有限差分算法对于该模型的正演数值模拟,算法合适。     

基于混沌时间序列的地下水位多步预测模型

利用相空间重构技术，并借助G—P算法、C-C方法和Wolf方法从宁陵地区地下水位一维时间序列中提取Lyapunov指数，结果表明此时间序列具有混沌特征。计算了宁陵地区地下水位时间序列的关联维数、时间延迟和最大Lyapunov指数，将局域加权一阶多步预测模型应用于地下水位预测。预测表明，此模型可有效应用于地下水位时间序列的多步预测。     

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.     

沈阳大气气溶胶光学特性及其影响因子

利用2010年3—10月沈阳大气成分监测站CE－318太阳光度计观测资料,计算沈阳大气气溶胶光学厚度和波长指数等大气光学特性参数,结合地面气象观测资料,分析大气气溶胶光学特性及其影响因子。结果表明：沈阳气溶胶光学厚度在3—6月较高,8月较低,9—10月气溶胶光学厚度略有增加;除4月和8月外,气溶胶光学厚度与风速基本呈反相关;气溶胶光学厚度与可吸入颗粒物（particulate matter,PM）质量浓度变化趋势基本一致;气溶胶光学厚度日平均值距平的绝对值、改变率均与降水强度成正比;地面能见度与气溶胶光学厚度呈负相关。由气溶胶浑浊度系数计算的能见度在4—6月与实际观测的能见度基本吻合,由气溶胶标高计算的水平能见度整体小于实际观测的水平能见度。     

Influence of land use on the persistence effect of riverine phosphorus

The persistence effect contribution of legacy nutrients is often cited as a reason for little or no improvement in water quality following extensive implementation of watershed nutrient mitigation actions, yet there is limited knowledge concerning factors influencing this response, often called the “persistence effect.” Here, we adopted detrended fluctuation analysis and Spearman analysis methods to assess the influence of land use on the watershed phosphorus (P) persistence effect, using monthly water quality records during 2010–2016 in 13 catchments within a drinking water reservoir watershed in eastern China. Detrended fluctuation analysis was used to calculate the Hurst exponent α to assess watershed legacy P characteristics (α  ≈ 0.5, α  > 0.5, and α  < 0.5 indicate white noise, persistence, and anti‐persistence, respectively). Results showed weak to strong P persistence (0.60–0.81) in the time series of riverine P in the 13 catchments. The Hurst exponent α had negative relationships with agricultural land (R = ?.47, p = .11) and developed land (R = ?.67, p = .01) and a positive relationship with forest land cover (R = .48, p = .10). The persistence effect of riverine P was mainly determined by retention ability (biogeochemical legacy) and migration efficiency (hydrological legacy). A catchment with strong retention capacity (e.g., biomass uptake/storage and soil PO₄ sorption) and low migration efficiency results in a stronger persistence effect for riverine P. In practice, source control is more effective in catchments with weak persistence, whereas sink control (e.g., riparian buffers and wetlands) is preferred in catchments with strong persistence effects.