基于IRCGA优化的GM(1,1)变形预测方法与应用研究

阐述了引入时间距离权的传统GM(1,1)模型的建模过程以及灰色模型等级的判断方法,深入分析了白化背景参数λ取值对建模精度的影响;同时针对传统λ取值的缺陷,提出使用基于实数编码的改进遗传算法(IRCGA)对其进行优化处理,并用多个工程实例分析验证了优化后的GM(1,1)模型相对传统的灰色模型及其优化模型拟合效果更好,更加贴近真实数据序列。     

Monitoring Glacial Shrinkage Using Remote Sensing and Site-Observation Method on Southern Slope of Kalik Mountain, Eastern Tian Shan, China

Currently, one of the effective means in monitoring glacier change in regional scale is remote sensing and site-observation method. In this article, we present a study of comparing glacier area in 2005 derived from SPOT5 satellite image with area in 1972 derived from topographic maps. Moreover, Miaoergou (庙儿沟) flat-summit glacier is site observed to verify glacial change in regional scale. During the study period, glaciers located in the southern slope of Kalik (喀尔里克) Mountain re-duced their area by 12.3%. ...     

滇东地区煤田构造格局与煤系赋存规律的研究

滇东地区位于特提斯和环太平洋构造体系的交接部位,煤田构造格局的总体特征是呈NNE向条带状展布。区内断层以NNE、NE向为主,受主要断裂影响,煤田在南北向呈带状,东西向呈段状展布,各煤矿区在平面上呈NE向带状分布。研究区煤系赋存受基底主干断裂的控制作用明显,变形强度由北向南逐渐增强,北部地区以褶皱构造为主,断层较少,煤层多保存于向斜构造中,保存较完整,煤层埋藏较深;南部受弥勒-师宗断裂带影响,断裂构造极为发育,对煤层破坏严重,煤系赋存不稳定。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Turbulent Flux and Its Footprint Climatology at An Agricultural Site

Based on quality controlled data from eddy covariance system and automatic weather station collected at Guantao farmland site from 2008 to 2010, the characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and annual variations of turbulent flux were reported. The corresponding source areas of flux measurement at different temporal scales were analyzed in detail, using arithmetic-averaged and flux-weighted footprint climatology calculation method, respectively. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, sensible heat and latent heat flux both show consistent diurnal variation throughout the year, while CO₂ fluxes only have significant diurnal variation in growing season with an opposite trend. The seasonal variation of the turbulent flux is mainly affected by the crop type and its growth status in different phenological periods. During growing season, latent heat flux and CO₂ flux are the dominant flux exchange items whose value are significantly higher in their middle growth stage than other ones during which latent heat and CO₂ flux exchange of the summer corn is stronger than winter wheat. Secondly, with combined effects of wind, turbulence and surface condition, the source area of flux measurement change most significantly at daily scale, less obvious at seasonal scale and smallest at annual scale. Finally, compared with arithmetic-averaged footprint climatology method, flux-weighted footprint climatology is a more reasonable method to calculate the source areas of the flux measurement, in that they account for the time change of the actual turbulent flux. The arithmetic-averaged results are most likely to overestimate the size of source area during small observed flux due to its weak turbulent exchange.     

不同土壤热通量测算方法的比较及其对地表能量平衡闭合影响的研究

土壤热通量是地表能量平衡的重要分量,对其测算方法的研究对理解能量平衡过程具有十分重要的意义.利用2010年馆陶站土壤热通量等相关观测数据对多种测算土壤热通量的方法:实测土壤热通量和热储存量的结合方法(PlateCal)、热传导方程校正法(TDEC)、谐波分析法(HM)、平均土壤热电偶法(TCAV)、耦合热传导—对流法(ITCC)获取的地表土壤热通量进行了对比分析,并且采用最优方法计算馆陶站2008-2010年的地表土壤热通量,分析了该站土壤热通量日、季节变化特征.主要结论如下:①PlateCal和TDEC法分别为获取土壤热通量的最优观测与计算方法,而HM,TCAV和ITCC法计算结果均不理想;②PlateCal与TDEC法对地表土壤温度均不敏感,而HM法对地表土壤温度则比较敏感,各种地表土壤热通量的观测与计算方法均对土壤湿度敏感;③馆陶站冬小麦、玉米覆盖地表及地表裸露时期的地表土壤热通量均呈现典型的日、季节变化特征,与净辐射变化趋势一致;④考虑热储存后,可将馆陶站2010年各月地表能量闭合率提高4％～11％,对2008-2010年的年能量平衡闭合率提高3％～5％.     

Characteristics of climate change in the “significant impact zone” affected by aerosols over eastern China in warm seasons

Through analysis of the distribution pattern and changing characteristics of atmospheric aerosols over the East Asia region during warm seasons in recent 20 a and beyond as well as their possible interac- tive relationship with a variety of meteorological elements, it is found that the high-value zone of aerosol optical depth derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), its significant negative correlation zones in terms of sunshine duration (SD) and surface air temperature (SAT) and its significant positive correlation zones with low-level cloud amount (LCC) are co-located in the South China region during warm periods. Based on this finding, the region is referred to as a "significant impact zone" (SI zone) affected by aerosols. Then, a comparative analysis is made on variation differ- ences of observed SAT, SD and LCC, etc. in different regions. It is also found that the LCC is increased and the SD is decreased within the "SI zone" over eastern China during the warm season. These characteristics are more evident than those beyond the zone, while the warming trend within the zone is evidently weaker than that outside it. Studies show that since recent 20 a, under the influence of aerosols, the LCC tend to increase substantially with a clear decrease of SD and an unnoticeable warming trend within the "SI zone". Comparing with the climate change beyond the zone, the difference is significant. Therefore, the effects of atmospheric aerosols on climate is possibly one of the contri- butions to the difference of climate change existed between the southern and northern parts of the Eastern China during a warm season.     

钻孔灌注桩的超声波检测

结合焦郑高速公路钻孔灌注桩的超声波检测,对超声波检测的原理、方法以及桩身缺陷的判定进行了介绍和分析,通过实例证明超声波检测法能准确判断出桩身缺陷的位置和范围,并能对缺陷严重程度做出评价,是检测灌注桩桩身质量的一种较好方法.     

THE STUDY OF RETRIEVAL THEORY AND METHODS FROM SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING FOR METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OVER EASTERN ASIA-PARTI:ISPRM AND SRRM

A review of ten-year's practice in developing the improved simultaneous physical retrievalmethod(ISPRM)is given in the hope that some creative ideas can be drawn from it.Theimprovement upon the SPRM is associated with the under-determinedness of this ill-posed inverseproblem.In our experiment,the precondition is observed that prior information must beindependent of the satellite measurements.The well-posed retrieval theory has told us that theforward process is fundamental for the retrieval,and it is the bridge between the input of satelliteradiance and the output of retrievals.In order to obtain a better result from the forward process.the full advantage of every prior information available must be taken.It is necessary to turn the ill-posed inverse problem into the well-posed one.Then by using the Ridge regression or Bayesalgorithm to find the optimal combination among the first guess,the theoretical analogueinformation and the satellite observations,the impact of the under-determinedness of this inverseproblem on the numerical solution is minimized.     

砂岩铀矿成矿过程与氧化还原分带: 铀系不平衡证据

铀系不平衡技术被用来研究新疆伊犁盆地库捷尔太砂岩型铀矿床的氧化还原分带和成矿过程.取自该矿床的26个样品的铀、钍含量以及234 U/ 238U, 230 Th/ 234 U和230 Th/ 238U活度比值分别用ICP -MS和α能谱仪进行了测量.不同氧化还原带岩石的铀、钍含量和钍/铀比明显不同: 强氧化带岩石的U、Th含量和Th/U比分别为12.4 μg/g, 4.5 μg/g和0.48; 弱氧化带分别为20.4 μg/g, 5.0 μg/g和0.38; 过渡带(矿化带)分别为169.7μg/g, 4.7μg/g和0.07; 还原带(未蚀变带)分别为6.8μg/g, 3.7μg/g和0.87.其同位素特征亦有明显差异: 氧化带岩石234 U/ 238U大多大于1, 过渡带(矿化带)岩石部分大于或等于1, 部分小于1, 还原带(未蚀变带)岩石大多大于1; 氧化带岩石230 Th/ 234 U和230 Th/ 238U大多大于1, 过渡带(矿化带)岩石大多小于或等于1, 还原带(未蚀变带)岩石大多大于1.这可作为砂岩型铀矿床矿体定位的指示剂.铀系不平衡特征还示踪了该矿床的成矿作用过程.      

南海海域新生代沉积盆地构造演化的动力学特征及其油气资源

通过对构造环境、地球物理场特征、盆地生储盖层发育等方面对比研究, 讨论南海南北部沉积盆地的油气资源分布特征, 为在南海进行油气勘查指明方向.目前油气勘探实践证明, 南海南部的油气资源比北部丰富, 究其原因, 南海北部为被动大陆边缘, 张性沉积盆地的烃源岩体积较小, 而南部挤压环境下形成的沉积盆地的烃源岩体积大; 北部的地热流较南部小, 因此地温梯度也较小, 如北部陆架上的珠江口盆地的热流值在5 3~ 87mW /m2之间, 平均6 7mW /m2, 而南海南部大曾母盆地平均热流值达97mW /m2, 最大值达130mW /m2, 故南部边缘烃源岩的成熟度比北部高; 由于南部边缘处于挤压构造环境, 因此在沉积盆地中形成了许多挤压构造, 而北部边缘一直处于张性构造环境, 形成的构造较少且较小; 同时, 南部边缘沉积盆地中, 烃源岩生烃与构造形成在时间上搭配较好.因此, 在南海南部边缘沉积盆地中形成了许多大型油气田, 而南海北部边缘沉积盆地中, 大型油气田较少, 中小型油气田较多.这就是为什么南海南部边缘的油气资源比北部丰富的地质原因.