Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets

Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.     

火山活动与沉积盆地的形成和演化

我国大陆地壳进入中生代以来,发生了较其他陆壳更为强烈的构造运动,印支,燕山,喜马拉雅运动都是发生在我国大陆地壳以裂陷作用为主的典型运动,在中生代板块构造的特定时代和以裂陷作用主主的构造运动作用下,岩浆活动沿断穿骨石圈和地壳的深断裂发生,上涌至地壳地面形成火山岩带和地层格架中的火山岩层,上涌至地壳内部形成壳内流体相央浆房而成为高导层,火山活动是由中生代生成的太平洋板块和我国大陆地壳俯冲,使大陆地壳深     

Characteristics of the Variation of Cross Fault Short-Baseline and Short-Range Leveling in Western Yunnan Earthquake Test Site Before Lijiang M_S7.0 Earthquake

Results of analysis of variation of cross fault short-baseline and short-range leveling in Western Yunnan Earthquake Test Site (WYETS), results show that among five observation stations of cross fault short-baseline and short-range leveling in WYETS before the Lijiang MS7.0 Earthquake occurred in February 1996 only Yongsheng observation station (epicentral distance 82 km) located at Chenghai fault shows great variation about one year before the earthquake. And the nearest observation station, Lijiang (epicentral distance 42 km); presents great coseismic variation, but does not show obvious anomalous variation before the earthquake. There are no significant variations related to the earthquake at the other three observation stations. Two methods are used in analysis of the observed data and some valuable results have been obtained.     

Quaternary Tectonic Deformation in Front Area of the Tianjingshan Fault Zone and Analysis of Its Genesis

Through detailed field mapping, the tectonic deformation in the front area of the Tianjingshan fault zone is discussed in this paper. The result shows that there are two Quaternary thrust (oblique) fault-fold belts, namely: the Miaoshan and Hongjianshan fault-fold belts, in the front area of the south wall's strike-slip movement of the Tianjingshan fault zone. The Hejiakouzi Quaternary anticline, which is a part of the Miaoshan fault-fold belt, is mainly discussed. It is pointed out that the fold began to grow in the middle part near Hejiakouzi in the mid-late stage of middle Pleistocene epoch and then gradually developed towards the ends in late Quaternary. Based on the Cenozoic structural features, the genesis of the Miaoshan and Hongjianshan fault-fold belts and the kinematic relation they bear with the Tianjingshan fault zone are analyzed.     

近场立交成因模式及强震预报

详细地讨论了强震孕育的近场立交成因模式,将其应用于强震的预报,并提出了强震预报的思路.作者还进一步讨论了横向断层对传播断层的止裂条件及深部断层的存在等问题.     

成组中强震前后动态小震的时空活动特征

分析了进入活跃时段以来,新疆及邻近地区自１９９５年３月１９日和硕Ｍｓ５．０地震后,相继发生的１２次Ｍｓ≥４．７地震前后调制小震和动态小震的时空活动特征,据此提出了孕系统失稳模式;     

1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级地震震源过程的研究

采用数字化台网Ｐ波波形资料及台湾台网Ｐ波初动方向资料,研究了１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡７３级地震及邻近地区（北纬２１～２６°,东经１１５～１２０°）ＭＬ≥５８级共５次地震的矩张量解及震源参数。结果表明,这次７３级地震的矩张量解以双力偶成分为主,是断层面接近ＮＷ走向的正断层。断层面的走向与大震前地震的条带分布走向及余震分布显示的破裂图象较相象,震源机制的张应力轴接近水平,近ＮＥ走向;压应力轴几乎垂直,近ＮＷＷ走向,似乎表明这次地震是受菲律海板块向欧亚板块北西向挤压的力源控制。从Ｐ轴接近竖直而Ｔ轴接近水平来看,发震断层为强烈拉张性正断层,可能还同时存在垂直向上的应力作用。其它４个强震的震源机制解与７３级大震的差别较大。这些地震震源机制解的复杂性,表明台湾海峡地震序列的发展过程比较复杂。     

香港地区活动断裂的初步探讨

香港地区的断裂构造颇为发育,主要有北东、北东东和北西向三组断裂。在现今构造应力场作用之下,北东东和北西向断裂组成共轭断裂系统。由于本地区地震活动水平不高,尚难确定哪组断裂与地震活动密切相关。断层泥的热释光资料表明,断裂的最新活动应在晚更新世,断裂的复发周期应在１０万年左右。目前尚不能肯定哪条断裂为活动断裂。     

五大连池近代火山老黑山火烧山火山喷发过程的考察研究

作者在已有工作的基础上,以当代火山学的研究思路和观点,为恢复五大连池两个近代火山,老黑山火烧山的喷发历史过程进行了野外考察研究工作。老黑山火山锥是由三套不同的碎屑堆积物组成。在锥体的南侧、东侧和西侧以及北测和北西侧有５个熔岩溢出口,按它们形成先后关系,认为有早、中、晚三期熔岩流。本文还对老黑山火山锥上的寄生火山、结壳熔岩与渣状熔岩的分布、流动特点及形成的控制因素进行了分析讨论。最后得出结论：老黑山火山是经多期次喷发活动形成的。火烧山火山锥是一碎屑化泡沫化程度很低的浮岩块和熔岩碎块组成,同老黑山有明显区别。     

Burst strain disturbance—A new test study on fracture precursor

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