太阳射电分米波U型暴分析

本文介绍了由捷克Ondˇrejov天文台观测到的 1 992年 8月 2 2日 1 2 :36 :2 6— 1 2 :36 :32UT发生的U型暴 ,U型暴的频率范围为 1 .0— 2 .8GHz,在国际上尚属首例 .从分析得到以下几点结论 :(1 )上下臂的频漂率分别为 1 .2 5和 0 .2 2 5GHz/s,其电子束流的速度分别为 0 .38c和 0 .2 6c ,它是由等离子体二次谐波发射造成的 .(2 )上升臂的爆发衰减时间常数大于下降臂的 .(3)频谱极大频率随时间变化呈现出从高频到低频再到高频的变化 .(4)上升臂的频宽大于下降臂的约一倍左右 ,这与上升臂频漂远大于下降臂的有关 .(5 )从频宽得到上、下臂的速度弥散分别为 (Δvv) a=0 .42和 (Δvv) d=0 .47.     

黑河出山径流的非线性特征分析

应用非线性动力学的理论和方法,对黑河出山径流的非线性特征进行了分析.结果表明,黑河月出山径流的年内分布、年平均流量的一次峰、谷变化符合单重或双重威布尔分布,并具有自相似性质.黑河出山径流多年变化在相空间中的运动轨迹收缩到一个约为4.32维的吸引子上,而描述流量的动力方程需要8个独立变量.黑河出山径流的非线性特征还表现在对内部结构为非线性函数的输入输出模型的良好应用上,如GRNN神经网络模型、非线性回归模型等.     

Simulated impacts of climate change and land‐clearing on runoff from a small Sahelian catchment

In the Sahel, there are few long‐term data series available to estimate the climatic and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in small catchments. Since 1950, land clearing has enhanced runoff. The question is whether and by how much this anthropogenic effect offsets the current drought. To answer this question, a physically based distributed hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in a small Sahelian catchment in Niger, from the 1950–1998 rain‐series. The simulation was carried out for three soil surface states of the catchment (1950, 1975 and 1992). The catchment is characterized by an increase in cultivated land, with associated fallow, from 6% in 1950 to 56% in 1992, together with an increase in the extent of eroded land (from 7 to 16%), at the expense of the savanna. Effects of climate and land use are first analysed separately: irrespective of the land cover state, the simulated mean annual runoff decreases by about 40% from the wet period (1950–1969) to the dry period (1970–1998); calculated on the 1950–1998 rainfall‐series, the changes that occurred in land cover between 1950 and 1992 multiplies the mean annual runoff by a factor close to three. The analysis of a joint climatic and anthropogenic change shows that the transition from a wet period under a ‘natural’ land cover (1950) to a dry period under a cultivated land cover (1992) results in an increase in runoff of the order of 30 to 70%. At the scale of a small Sahelian catchment, the anthropogenic impact on runoff is probably more important than that of drought. This figure for relative increase in runoff contributions to ponds, preferential sites of seepage to groundwater, is less than that currently estimated for aquifer recharge, which has been causing a significant continuous water table rise over the same period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Middle Jurassic age of basalts and the post-obduction sedimentary sequence in the Guevgueli Ophiolite Complex (Republic of Macedonia)

The Guevgueli Ophiolite Complex near Demir Kapija (Eastern Vardar Ophiolitic Unit) was studied for the age and facies of the overlying sediments. Cherts in direct contact with basalts are dated to late Bathonian–early Callovian with radiolarians. The post-obduction sequence, here informally named the Demir Kapija group, is composed of polymictic conglomerate, probably Kimmeridgian in age, and a more than 350-m thick carbonate succession. The carbonate succession consists of hemipelagic, slope and platform margin facies and contains algae and benthic foraminifers indicative of the Tithonian age. These new data support the previously proposed palaeogeographical connection between the Guevgueli and South Apuseni ophiolite complexes.     

Adjusted radiative forcing and global radiative feedbacks in CNRM-CM5, a closure of the partial decomposition

This study provides a comprehensive global analysis of the climate radiative feedbacks and the adjusted radiative forcing for a CO₂ increase perturbation in the CNRM-CM5 climate model using the partial radiative perturbations (PRP) method. Some methodological key points of the PRP are investigated, with a particular focus on the consideration of the effect of fast adjustments. First, the standard PRP method is applied by neglecting certain fast adjustments. The effect of the field decorrelation is highlighted by performing a PRP across two different periods of a control experiment and by analyzing second-order terms. Sensitivity tests to the field substitution frequency, the sampling period and the perturbed experiment used are performed. The impact of the definition of the top of the climate system (top-of-the-atmosphere or tropopause) in the feedback estimate is also discussed. Secondly, the fast adjustment processes are taken into account by combining the PRP framework with the method of linear regression of the partial net radiative flux change against the mean surface air temperature change using a step forcing experiment. This method allows us to quantify the contribution of the different constituents to the forcing adjustment and to improve the estimation of the radiative feedbacks. It is shown that such decomposition allows the retrieval of the adjusted radiative forcing, the radiative feedbacks and the climate sensitivity as estimated with the linear regression method with a high level of accuracy, validating the partial decomposition.     

Water tracing through the vadose zone above Postojnska Jama,Slovenia

A study of pollution transport from the surface through 100 m of Upper Cretaceous limestone into the underlying Postojnska Jama found the highest pollution in three seeps. Flushing of nitrates and chlorides continued for 11 years after source removal, while sulphates and phosphates continued even longer. A tracing test from the surface with uranin dye and added water in the dry season caused a rapid reaction in the most conductive seep. Expulsion of the remaining dye (forced by precipitation) occurred with a delay of up to 3 months. Dye injected during the wet season was transported only by precipitation and appeared in the cave within 21–43 h. The best connection between the surface and the cave exists along a subvertical tectonically fissured zone to a broken zone (80–90/90). Percolation through a less permeable trickle is limited to the tectonically broken zone 70/90. Percolation through dripping follows the subvertical fissured to broken zones and the dip direction of bedding planes.     

Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Network

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, v. 29, no. 1, January 2004 (on the Internet at ). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this Bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain the names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

Summary of recent volcanic activity,Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Network

Information included in this summary is based on more detailed reports published in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network, v. 28, no. 12, December 2003 (on the Internet at http://www.volcano.si.edu/). Edited by scientists at the Smithsonian, this Bulletin includes reports provided by a worldwide network of correspondents. The reports contain names and contact information for all sources. Please note that these reports are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. The Global Volcanism Program welcomes further reports of current volcanism, seismic unrest, monitoring data, and field observations.     

B—P神经网络在径流长期预测中的应用

人工神经网络作为一个具有高度非线性映射能力的计算模型，已广泛应用于模式识别、自动控制等许多领域。在数值预测方面，它不需要预先确定样本的数学模型，仅通过学习样本数据即可进行预测。作者以龙羊峡水库入库径流为研究对象，将人工神经网络中的反向传播算法（简称B－P模型）应用于入库径流变化趋势的长期预测，并将基结果与常用的时间序列分析方法的计算结果进行比较，以分析人工神经网络在径流预测领域应用的优越性及其应用前景。     

黄河水δ18O、δD和3H的沿程变化特征及其影响因素研究

根据2000年8～9月雨季和2001年3～4月旱季在黄河18条断面上河水的同位素测试结果，分析了黄河水占δ^18O、δD和^3H浓度的沿程变化特征。研究结果发现，从黄河源头至入海口，黄河水具有稳定同位素比率逐渐增大而^3H浓度逐渐下降的趋势；外来水体的混合作用、蒸发作用以及人类活动对黄河水的同位素具有明显的影响。黄河源头地区和中游地区是黄河两个主要的产流区，河水同位素的变化是不同径流来源对河水补给的良好标志。兰州以上黄河源头地区河水的δ^18O、δD的季节性变化与雨水相反，地下水对河水的补给贡献旱季大于雨季。晋陕峡谷北段雨季δ^18O相对较低的岩溶水和当地雨水对河川径流有明显的补给，而旱季^3H浓度相对较低的岩溶水对河川径流有一定的补给；吴堡—潼关段雨季和旱季均有同位素比率相对较高的地表支流(如汾河、渭河)的加入。河水水面蒸发作用对兰州—包头段和黄河下游段旱季河水的δ^18O具有明显的影响，而对这些河段雨季河水的同位素影响较小，灌溉回归水的蒸发可能是影响这些地段河水同位素组成的主要因素。