Further Characterisation of the 91500 Zircon Crystal

This paper reports the results from a second characterisation of the 91500 zircon, including data from electron probe microanalysis, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS), secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) and laser fluorination analyses. The focus of this initiative was to establish the suitability of this large single zircon crystal for calibrating in situ analyses of the rare earth elements and oxygen isotopes, as well as to provide working values for key geochemical systems. In addition to extensive testing of the chemical and structural homogeneity of this sample, the occurrence of banding in 91500 in both backscattered electron and cathodoluminescence images is described in detail. Blind intercomparison data reported by both LA-ICP-MS and SIMS laboratories indicate that only small systematic differences exist between the data sets provided by these two techniques. Furthermore, the use of NIST SRM 610 glass as the calibrant for SIMS analyses was found to introduce little or no systematic error into the results for zircon. Based on both laser fluorination and SIMS data, zircon 91500 seems to be very well suited for calibrating in situ oxygen isotopic analyses.     

Capabilities and limitations of numerical ice sheet models: a discussion for Earth-scientists and modelers

The simulation of dynamically coupled ice sheet, ice stream, and ice shelf-systems poses a challenge to most numerical ice sheet models. Here we review present ice sheet model limitations targeting a broader audience within Earth Sciences, also those with no specific background in numerical modeling, in order to facilitate cross-disciplinary communication between especially paleoglaciologists, marine and terrestrial geologists, and numerical modelers. The ‘zero order’ (Shallow Ice Approximation, SIA)-, ‘higher order’-, and ‘full Stokes’ ice sheet models are described conceptually and complemented by an outline of their derivations. We demonstrate that higher order models are required to simulate coupled ice sheet-ice shelf and ice sheet-ice stream systems, in particular if the results are aimed to complement spatial ice flow reconstructions based on higher resolution geological and geophysical data. The zero order SIA model limitations in capturing ice stream behavior are here illustrated by conceptual simulations of a glaciation on Svalbard. The limitations are obvious from the equations comprising a zero order model. However, under certain circumstances, simulation results may falsely give the impression that ice streams indeed are simulated with a zero order SIA model.     

The Gaia Hypothesis: Conjectures and Refutations

The uncertainties surrounding global climate change provide ample evidence, if any were necessary, of the need for a whole-system view of the Earth. Arguably the most visible – and controversial – attempt to understand Earth as a system has been Lovelock's Gaia theory. Gaia has been a fruitful hypothesis generator, and has prompted many intriguing conjectures about how biological processes might contribute to planetary-scale regulation of atmospheric chemistry and climate. In many important cases, however, these conjectures are refuted by the available data. For example, Gaia theory predicts that the composition of the atmosphere should be tightly regulated by biological processes, but rates of carbon uptake into the biosphere have accelerated by only about 2% in response to the 35% rise in atmospheric CO₂ since pre-industrial times. Gaia theory would predict that atmospheric CO₂ should be more sensitively regulated by terrestrial ecosystem uptake (which is biologically mediated) than by ocean uptake (which is primarily abiotic), but both processes are about equally insensitive to atmospheric CO₂ levels. Gaia theory predicts that biological feedbacks should make the Earth system less sensitive to perturbation, but the best available data suggest that the net effect of biologically mediated feedbacks will be to amplify, not reduce, the Earth system's sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change. Gaia theory predicts that biological by-products in the atmosphere should act as planetary climate regulators, but the Vostok ice core indicates that CO₂, CH₄, and dimethyl sulfide – all biological by-products – function to make the Earth warmer when it is warm, and colder when it is cold. Gaia theory predicts that biological feedbacks should regulate Earth's climate over the long term, but peaks in paleotemperature correspond to peaks in paleo-CO₂ in records stretching back to the Permian; thus if CO₂ is biologically regulated as part of a global thermostat, that thermostat has been hooked up backwards for at least the past 300 million years. Gaia theory predicts that organisms alter their environment to their own benefit, but throughout most of the surface ocean (comprising more than half of the globe), nutrient depletion by plankton has almost created a biological desert, and is kept in check only by the nutrient starvation of the plankton themselves. Lastly, where organisms enhance their environment for themselves, they create positive feedback; thus Gaia theory's two central principles – first, that organisms stabilize their environment, and second, that organisms alter their environment in ways that benefit them – are mutually inconsistent with one another. These examples suggest that the further development of Gaia theory will require more deliberate comparison of theory and data.     

Effects of changes in winter snowpacks on summer low flows: case studies in the Sierra Nevada,California, USA

Seasonal low flows are important for sustaining ecosystems and for supplying human needs during the dry season. In California's Sierra Nevada mountains, low flows are primarily sustained by groundwater that is recharged during snowmelt. As the climate warms over the next century, the volume of the annual Sierra Nevada snowpack is expected to decrease by ~40–90%. In eight snow‐dominated catchments in the Sierra Nevada, we analysed records of snow water equivalent (SWE) and unimpaired streamflow records spanning 10–33 years. Linear extrapolations of historical SWE/streamflow relationships suggest that annual minimum flows in some catchments could decrease to zero if peak SWE is reduced to roughly half of its historical average. For every 10% decrease in peak SWE, annual minimum flows decrease 9–22% and occur 3–7 days earlier in the year. In two of the study catchments, Sagehen and Pitman Creeks, seasonal low flows are significantly correlated with the previous year's snowpack as well as the current year's snowpack. We explore how future warming could affect the relationship between winter snowpacks and summer low flows, using a distributed hydrologic model Regional Hydro‐ecologic Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate the response of two study catchments. Model results suggest that a 10% decrease in peak SWE will lead to a 1–8% decrease in low flows. The modelled streams do not dry up completely, because the effects of reduced SWE are partly offset by increased fall or winter net gains in storage, and by shifts in the timing of peak evapotranspiration. We consider how groundwater storage, snowmelt and evapotranspiration rates, and precipitation phase (snow vs rain) influence catchment response to warming. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forming stars on a viscous time-scale: the key to exponential stellar profiles in disc galaxies?

We argue for implementing star formation on a viscous time-scale in hydrodynamical simulations of disc galaxy formation and evolution. Modelling two-dimensional isolated disc galaxies with the Bhatnagar–Gross–Krook (BGK) hydrocode, we verify the analytic claim of various authors that if the characteristic time-scale for star formation is equal to the viscous time-scale in discs, the resulting stellar profile is exponential on several scalelengths whatever the initial gas and dark matter profile. This casts new light on both numerical and semi-analytical disc formation simulations that either (a) commence star formation in an already exponential gaseous disc, (b) begin a disc simulation with conditions known to lead to an exponential, i.e. the collapse of a spherically symmetric nearly uniform sphere of gas in solid-body rotation under the assumption of specific angular momentum conservation, or (c) in simulations performed in a hierarchical context, tune their feedback processes to delay disc formation until the dark matter haloes are slowly evolving and without much substructure so that the gas has the chance to collapse under conditions known to give exponentials. In such models, star formation follows a Schmidt-like law, which for lack of a suitable time-scale, resorts to an efficiency parameter. With star formation prescribed on a viscous time-scale, however, we find gas and star fractions after ∼12 Gyr that are consistent with observations without having to invoke a 'fudge factor' for star formation. Our results strongly suggest that despite our gap in understanding the exact link between star formation and viscosity, the viscous time-scale is indeed the natural time-scale for star formation.