水环境健康风险评价模型

简要介绍了水环境健康风险评价模型及其应用。实例说明,通过水环境健康风险评价,一方面可以定量地描述环境污染对公众健康的危害,使评价指标落实到人体健康上;另一方面,可以直接得出环境污染物的主次,从而为环境风险管理提供科学依据。在我国,环境健康风险评价暂时还没有包括在常规环境评价工作中,在今后的评价工作中应该逐步开展这方面的工作。     

Development characteristics and construction prospects for a multi-integrated economic zone in the South China Sea Region

The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)instigated by China is catalyzing the evolution of a new global economic landscape.To cope with the great changes in the economic landscape,China needs to view the South China Sea Region(SCSR)as a strategic focus and study carefully the characteristics of regional development and explore the possibility for construc-tion of a strategic multi-integrated economic zone which includes China and ASEAN countries.Based on key indicators,this paper outlines the overall development characteristics of the SCSR and analyzes the regional structural characteristics of industry and global trade based on the indexes of industrial structure similarity and trade commodity structure coincidence;the paper also depicts the spatial characteristics of the nine core growth areas(CGAs)in the region and discusses the construction prospects for a multi-integrated economic zone in the SCSR.The results show that,first,from 2000 to 2017,the main economic indicators of the SCSR grew quite well,and the development trend was much better than the global average for the same period.Second,driven by the global industrial transfer stages and spatial paths,the level of comprehensive development in the SCSR has evolved into four categories.Third,the index values for industrial structure similarity and trade commodity structure coincidence for the 11 countries in the SCSR have remained at a high level,and reveal an integration trend not only from the horizontal and vertical perspective,but also from an upgrading and downgrading standpoint.Fourth,nine CGAs have been established in the SCSR and the advantaged industries and the export commodity types between different countries exhibited the characteristics of convergence and complementarity due to the polarization and diffusion effects of the CGAs.Finally,from a long-term perspective,the SCSR has already acquired the internal and external conditions such as the 5th global industrial transfer initiative,the reconstruction of the global value chain,regional production-consumption networks and spa-tial entities for building a multi-integrated economic zone in the SCSR.     

三峡库区水体和底泥中多环芳烃和邻苯二甲酸酯类分布和来源

通过对2016年三峡库区干支流18个采样点水体和底泥中16种多环芳烃(PAHs)和6种邻苯二甲酸酯类(PAEs)污染物浓度的时空分布特征和来源进行分析,得出如下结论:三峡库区2016年水体和底泥中ΣPAHs分别为3.9~107.6 ng/L(均值为39.9 ng/L)和267.9~1018.1 ng/g(均值为490.9 ng/g),ΣPAEs分别为122.4~2884.7 ng/L(均值为848.1 ng/L)和192.9~3473.4 ng/g(均值为1253.35 ng/g).水库水体和底泥中PAHs和PAEs均表现出显著的时空分布特征.干支流水体ΣPAHs平均浓度均为放水期(6月)高于蓄水期(12月),干流底泥ΣPAHs平均含量在蓄水期高于放水期.干流水体中ΣPAEs平均浓度在蓄水期显著高于放水期,底泥中ΣPAEs平均含量为放水期高于蓄水期.库区水体中的PAHs以2~3环和4环为主,底泥中以4环和5~6环为主.水体和底泥中PAEs均以邻苯二甲酸(2-乙基已基)酯和邻苯二甲酸二正丁酯为主.库区水体中PAHs的主要来源为焦化或煤焦油挥发、石油源及燃料的中低温燃烧;底泥中PAHs主要来源为煤和生物质燃烧以及石油.水体和底泥中的PAEs主要来源于塑料和重化工工业以及生活垃圾.     

济南泉域岩溶地下水有机污染特征研究

对济南泉域岩溶地下水系统水质进行了系统的采样分析。结果表明,泉域岩溶水已普遍受有机物污染,有机污染物检出率高达93%。检出有机物多于5项的样品多分布于大中型企业附近。在所有检出的有机物中,有机氯农药类、卤代烃类检出率最高,分别达到60%、57.8%。尽管岩溶水有机污染较普遍,但有机物含量较低,仅局部地段存在有机物超标现象。泉域岩溶水有机污染特征受控于工业企业分布及地下水流场,在济南侵入岩体南缘附近形成了近长方形的岩溶水有机污染区,面积达156 km2。污染区南部地带是济南市工业集中区,灰岩浅埋,防污性能差。另外由于地下水径流方向与侵入岩体南缘线近垂直,进入灰岩含水层的有机污染物随地下水径流向北运移,造成埋藏于火成岩体之下的埋藏型岩溶水也受到污染。      

The development and initial tests of an atmospheric model based on a vertical coordinate with a smooth transition from terrain following to isentropic coordinates

An atmospheric model (η model) is developed by modifying the UW θ－σ hybrid model. In the η model, the vertical coordinate transforms smoothly from terrain following to isentropic coordinates. The model is developed to capitalize on the inherent advantage of numerical modeling in isentropic coordinates and to eliminate the interface between the sigma planetary boundary layer and isentropic free atmosphere present in the UW θ－σ model. This formulation provides the potential for the data assimilation and the application of higher order schemes. This paper describes the structure of the η model and presents results from initial numerical experiments. The first experiment tests the capability of the η model for simulating the baroclinic development process. In the 48-hr numerical weather forecast experiment, the η model produces reasonable precipitation and synoptic fields at all levels which are similar to those from the UW θ-σ model. The second and third experiments test the capability of the η model for conserving 1) the joint distribution of isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and proxy ozone and 2) equivalent potential temperature under frictionless and isentropic conditions. These experiments show that distributions of IPV and proxy ozone in the pure isentropic domain and the distributions of prognostic and diagnostic equivalent potential temperature in the model domain remain highly correlated to day 10.     

国土资源科技成果管理与发布信息系统设计与开发

国土资源科技成果管理与发布信息系统设计依托于国土资源部内外网和单机版环境,采用成熟先进的．NeT、数据库、XML等技术,实现了各类数据的管理、查询与维护。系统包括科技成果登记管理发布子系统、科技奖励申报管理发布子系统、外事资料和考察报告汇交子系统和科技成果网4个子系统。系统设计具有先进性、开放性和安全性等特点。     

基于降雨强度与历时的红层区滑坡降雨阈值分析——以普洱为例

普洱位于云南西南部,境内岩浆岩分布广泛。地质构造不仅复杂,也是典型的红层易滑区。本文利用普洱市2009—2014年降水量和滑坡资料,采用Caine阈值曲线和聚类分析方法,分析了红层区降雨型滑坡特征及确定降雨型滑坡的降雨阈值曲线,以期为红层区降雨型滑坡的预报预警提供理论依据。通过统计分析得出:(1)研究区域滑坡灾害主要集中在哀牢山群、无量山群及澜沧群,并属相应断裂带上。(2) 7—9月滑坡灾害发生最为频繁,占发生总量的77.1%。(3)滑坡灾害可分为短历时强降水型,中等历时弱降水型和长历时弱降水型、非降雨型滑坡,通过统计分析得出全市有40个滑坡事件与降雨无明显相关关系(0.7%)。(4)使用改进后的Caine模型研究了区域滑坡降雨阈值曲线,得到4类曲线:I=85 D~(-0.874)、I=45 D~(-0.811)、I=27 D~(-0.782)、I=12 D~(-0.774)。其最低阈值高于Guzzetti全球阈值,但较Caine全球阈值略低,最高阈值较福建台风型降雨滑坡阈值高。     

台风活动对青藏高原东北侧干旱的影响

应用１９５９￣１９９６的青藏高原东北侧５８个站历年逐月降水量资料,历年（１９５０￣１９９６年）逐月西太平洋台风资料及５００ｈＰａ高度格点资料,分析了台风活动对高原东北侧干旱的影响。结果指出：少台风活动年与干旱环流流型及高原东北侧干旱之间,多台风活动年与多雨环流流型及高原东北侧多雨之间,均存在着对应关系。     

近30年西藏汛期强降水事件的时空变化特征

利用1980-2008年汛期(5～9月)西藏38个气象站逐日降水量资料,定义了西藏强降水标准,并采用REOF、SSA等统计方法,分析了汛期强降水发生频次的时空分布特征。结果表明,西藏地区汛期强降水发生频数自东南向西北逐渐减少,但总体呈不明显的增多趋势,即从20世纪80年代中期开始减少,90年代中期降至最少,之后逐渐增多;频数存在5个异常分布空间型,即南部型、沿江型、东部型、北部型和东南部型。各空间型的强降水发生频数随时间变化均不同,其中南部型、东南部型表现为减少趋势;沿江型、东部型和北部型表现为增多趋势。汛期强降水发生频数的准2～3年和准5～6年周期在5个异常空间型普遍存在。     

高温中暑气象等级评定方法

在全球气候变化的大背景下, 高温热浪天气频繁出现, 由其引发的群发性中暑事件不断发生。为了有效预防极端高温天气对人体健康的影响, 利用全国358个重点城市1996-2005年逐日地面气象观测资料, 通过对气象要素与中暑的相关分析, 选择炎热指数为气象指标对引发中暑的气象条件进行了等级划分, 同时考虑不同程度高温天气的持续时间确定了高温中暑气象等级, 分别为可能发生中暑、较易发生中暑、易发生中暑和极易发生中暑4个等级。利用武汉市1994年和1995年7 -8月中暑人数与高温中暑气象等级进行对比分析, 结果表明:两者具有较好的对应关系。