冬季南海冷涌形成与传播的数值模拟

本文利用复杂地形条件下的热带有限区数值预报模式和ECMWF格点资料,较好地模拟了1981年1月上旬的一次南海冷涌过程,分析了冷涌的基本特征,并初步研究了冷涌的中纬度激发条件和低纬环流对冷涌的可能影响。      

Variational data assimilation experiments of mei-yu front rainstorms in China

The numerical forecasts of mei-yu front rainstorms in China has been an important issue. The intensity and pattern of the frontal rainfall are greatly influenced by the initial fields of the numerical model. The 4-dimensional variational data assimilation technology (4DVAR) can effectively assimilate all kinds of observed data, including rainfall data at the observed stations, so that the initial fields and the precipitation forecast can both be greatly improved. The non-hydrostatic meso-scale model (MM5) and its adjoint model are used to study the development of the mei-yu front rainstorm from 1200 UTC 25 June to 0600 UTC 26 June 1999. By numerical simulation experiments and assimilation experiments, the T106 data and the observed 6-hour rainfall data are assimilated. The influences of many factors, such as the choice of the assimilated variables and the weighting coefficient, on the precipitation forecast results are studied. The numerical results show that 4DVAR is valuable and important to mei-yu front rainfall prediction.     

南岳电线积冰标准冰厚气候特征

利用1957~2012年南岳高山观测站逐日覆冰资料,对南岳覆冰标准厚度和覆冰日数的时间演变、突变和周期变化进行分析,并推算出南岳各重现期的标准冰厚,结果表明:1)南岳南北向和东西向标准冰厚年代际变化非常相似,呈现偏大—偏小—偏大—偏小—偏大的年代际变化;冰冻日数在20世纪60年代中后期之前,90年代中后期之后冰冻日数偏少,60年代中后期到90年代中后期冰冻日数偏多。2)冰冻在1~4月、10~12月均有发生,其中1月出现天数最多,占全年的31.8%。3)滑动t检验分析发现,南岳东西向和南北向标准冰厚在20世纪60年代末有减小的突变,冰冻日数在近56年没有出现明显突变。4)Morlet小波和小波功率谱分析发现,南北向和东西向标准冰厚存在显著的2~3年、4~6年振荡周期;冰冻日数存在显著的2~4年、5~7年振荡周期。5)基于Pearson III型概率分布统计发现,各重现期东西向标准冰厚均较南北向标准冰厚要大,其中20年一遇南北向和东西向标准冰厚分别为76.33、85.22 mm,10年一遇南北向和东西向标准冰厚分别为60.86、69.57 mm。6)分析气象要素对覆冰的影响发现,覆冰期气温较无覆冰期要低,相对湿地要大,能见度要小,覆冰期风向以偏北风为准,无覆冰期风向以偏南风为主,覆冰期平均风速较无覆冰期风速要小。     

“一带一路”沿线地区关键生物多样性区域生态变化特征（英文）

KBA (Key Biodiversity Areas)是由IUCN提出并被国际社会认可的生态保护优先区域,评估其生态变化特征对生物多样性保护与自然保护地建设至关重要。“一带一路”沿线地区生态系统类型丰富,生物多样性保护价值极高,而沿线KBA更应该成为生态保护的核心目标。本文利用土地覆盖、归一化植被指数（NDVI）和夜间灯光数据（NTL）,从植被覆盖度和人类活动方面分别对沿线KBA的生态状况及其时空变化特征进行分析,得到以下结论：（1）KBA内的土地覆盖长期保持稳定,林地、荒野和草地是主要的土地覆盖类型;（2）KBA内NDVI总体上呈现增加的趋势,表明植被覆盖度在不断提高,少数植被退化的KBA主要分布在中南半岛、青藏高原以及西亚地区;（3）KBA内NTL总体上处于很低的水平,表明人类活动对自然生态系统的干扰程度十分有限,极少数分布于中东欧、印度、中南半岛以及地中海附近国家的KBA具有较强的人类活动且呈现出增加的趋势。本研究结果强调在KBA生态保护中充分利用生物群落演替规律,同时限制人类活动对自然生态系统的干扰,以推动沿线地区生物多样性保护与自然保护地建设。     

论找矿勘查的风险性和降低风险的预测性勘查战略

找矿勘查的高风险性表现在找到可赢利矿床的成功率低和找矿发现的成本越来越高,这不仅影响了矿业经济的发展,也影响了公众对地球科学的认识。根据国际找矿勘查的一些统计资料和实例分析了造成找矿勘查高风险性的原因,提出降低风险的预测性勘查战略。区域地质背景、成矿作用的复杂性和勘查者所具有的知识、思维能力、技术手段的局限性等客观因素使找矿勘查的风险不可避免,但不少找矿勘查的失败是由勘查者在资料使用、观察、思维等方面的主观失误造成的。勘查者可以通过增加尝试的次数来获取成功,更可取的是通过提高矿床预测的准确度,以预测性勘查促找矿发现,进而降低找矿勘查的风险。     

Crustal Composition of China Continent Constrained from Heat Flow Data and Helium Isotope Ratio of Underground Fluid

Based on conservation of energy principle and heat flow data in China continent, the upper limit of 1.3 μW/m3 heat production is obtained for continental crust in China. Furthermore, using the data of heat flow and helium isotope ratio of underground fluid, the heat productions of different tectonic units in China continent are estimated in range of 0.58–1.12 μW/m3 with a median of 0.85 μW/m3. Accordingly, the contents of U, Th and K2O in China crust are in ranges of 0.83–1.76 μg/g, 3.16–6.69 μg/g, and 1.0%–2.12%, respectively. These results indicate that the abundance of radioactive elements in the crust of China continent is much higher than that of Archean crust; and this fact implies China’s continental crust is much evolved in chemical composition. Meanwhile, significant lateral variation of crustal composition is also exhibited among different tectonic units in China continent. The crust of eastern China is much enriched in incompatible elements such as U, Th and K than that of western China; and the crust of orogenic belts is more enriched than that of platform regions. It can also be inferred that the crusts of eastern China and orogenic belts are much felsic than those of western China and platform regions, respectively, derived from the positive correlation between the heat production and SiO2 content of bulk crust. This deduction is consistent with the results derived from the crustal seismic velocity data in China. According to the facts of the lower seismic velocity of China than the average value of global crust, and the higher heat production of China continent compared with global crust composition models published by previous studies, it is deduced that the average composition models of global continent crust by Rudnick and Fountain (1995), Rudnick and Gao (2003), Weaver and Tarney (1984), Shaw et al. (1986), and Wedepohl (1995) overestimate the abundance of incompatible elements such as U, Th and K of continental crust.     

TEST OF A TROPICAL LIMITED AREA NUMERICAL PREDIC-TION MODEL INCLUDING EFFECT OF REAL TOPOGRAPHY

In this paper, a tropical limited numerical prediction p.e. model in sigma coordinate is developed. The predicted variables are deviations from a rest reference atmosphere. This transformation is of benefit in reducing truncation error and guarantees computational stability after the very steep real topography is introduced into the model. The numerical tests with this model show that the large-scale obstacle of the Tibetan Plateau is not negligible in forecasting tropical systems like the South China Sea typhoon.     

Remagnetization of the Early Paleozoic rocks from southern part of the Huabei basin ( I )

Although paleomagnetic study of the Early Paleozoic for the North China Block (NCB) has witnessed rapid progress since the 1980s, significant difference in the results can be found from the widespread areas in North China. Besides the paleomagnetic techniques used in the laboratories, the difference of these Paleozoic poles could also be due to the early and late Mesozoic remagnetization in the eastern part of China. It is therefore necessary to carry out systematic paleomagnetic and rock magnetic studies for the Early Paleozoic rocks in the NCB. The remagnetizarion re-sults from the northwestern part of Henan Province are reported, and related geological implications are discussed.     

水下爆破技术在马家泵站工程中的应用

介绍了马家泵站工程水下爆破参数的设计和施工工艺,以及所取得的经验和体会。     

基于线阵RETICON的低纬子午环仪器状态采集系统

对于一台高精度的天体测量望远镜,对其仪器本身的状态进行实时的监测是十分必要的,一方面,从监测中可以了解仪器的变化及工作的稳定度,另一方面,可以利用所测定的仪器变化量来对所观测到的数据进行修正。本文介绍了Ｒｅｔｉｃｏｎ的基本原理并着重介绍了其在低纬子午环的各种仪器参数监测中的软硬件构成。