基于区域自动气象站的广东极端强降水特征分析

利用2003—2017年广东2000多个区域自动气象站逐小时降水资料,分析了不同历时的广东极端强降水的年和月变化特征,在此基础上分析汛期4—9月的极端强降水频次的时空分布特征。结果表明:近15年来,广东不同历时极端强降水出现频率的年变化趋势存在明显差异,在年以及前、后汛期,24 h呈减少趋势;3、1 h呈上升趋势,其中1 h极端强降水频率在年和后汛期呈显著增加趋势。5—6月是广东极端强降水最易出现的时段,频次大值主要出现在粤西南阳江、江门、茂名,中部和北部的广州、清远以及粤东的汕头、揭阳等地。后汛期极端强降水主要出现在粤中南部地区,特别是南部沿海。1 h极端强降水次数在珠江三角洲以及茂名信宜、高州等地增加趋势明显,而粤东的大部分地区为减少趋势。地形和大气环流等可能是广东极端强降水频次中心形成的重要因素。     

火山区温室气体排放研究进展

火山活动是地球深部脱气的重要途径之一,它在大气圈温室气体浓度变化及全球碳排放研究中具有重要的作用。以国外火山气体研究成果为基础,概述火山气体的研究内容、研究方法（包括样品采集、实验室测试）,并重点探讨国外间歇期火山区土壤脱气、温泉脱气及喷气孔脱气的温室气体排放通量估算方法及其相应规模。结果表明,全球范围内火山间歇期土壤...     

Isolation and characterization of 45 Polymorphie microsatellite loci of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) and cross-species amplification

Turbot(Scophthalmus maximus) is a flatfish species commercially important for aquaculture.In this study,we generated a microsatellite-enriched genomic DNA library for Scophthalmus maximus,and then isolated and characterized 45 microsatellite loci by genotyping 30 individuals.The observed number of alleles ranged from 2 to 19 with an average of 6.24,while the effective number of alleles ranged from 1.30 to 11.11 with an average of 3.66.The expected heterozygosities varied from 0.235 to 0.925 4 and polymorphic information content ranged from 0.204 4 to 0.903 3,with an average of 0.622.Twelve loci deviated significantly from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium,and no significant linkage disequilibrium was observed between any pair of loci after Bonferroni correction.In cross-species amplification,five flatfish species(Paralichthys lethostigma,Verasper moseri,platichthys stellatus,Hippoglossoides dubius and Cynoglossus semilaevis) showed at least one polymorphic locus.These polymorphic microsatellite loci should prove useful for population analysis of turbot and other related species.     

自适应修正预报模型

根据新疆内陆干旱区河流冰雪融水补给比重较大、径流变化较的特点，在ＡＲＭＡ模型和非平稳时序分析的乘积模型基础上，并考虑到影响径流形成的主要因子气温和降雨，对径流预报值进行行修正，提出一个自适应修正预报模型。     

华北历史强震对济南市新旧动能转换先行区断裂活动性影响的数值分析

基于济南中心城区详细地质调查资料,利用库仑破裂应力变化理论,计算华北地区历史强震在济南地区各断裂上产生的库仑应力变化,并探讨历史强震对断裂活动性的影响。结果表明,区域内庙廊-焦斌断裂受历史强震影响较大,ΔCFS最大值可达1.1 kPa,卧牛山断裂北段ΔCFS达到0.8 kPa,济南-孙耿断裂北段ΔCFS可达0.6 kPa,这几条断裂的活动性可能略有增强,但ΔCFS未超过地震触发阈值(10 kPa);齐河-广饶断裂受影响相对较小,仅在东西两段存在微弱变化。综合分析认为,华北地区历史强震距研究区较远,对区内主要断裂影响有限。     

基于卷积神经网络的速度大脉冲识别方法研究

含速度大脉冲的强地震动具有复杂的特性,人工提取速度大脉冲特征的方法较繁琐,故利用卷积神经网络（CNN）在图像特征自动提取方面的优势,提出基于卷积神经网络图像识别的速度大脉冲识别方法。基于美国太平洋地震工程研究中心NGA-West1数据库提供的强地震动记录,筛选出6 000条非脉冲记录和91条含有速度大脉冲的强地震动记录。采用在原始记录中加入高斯噪声和过采样的方法,使2类记录样本数量达到均衡。利用本文建立的卷积神经网络模型对2类记录速度时程图进行特征自动提取和分类识别,结果显示测试集准确率为99%,表明本文卷积神经网络模型能够自动提取速度大脉冲特征,进而复现已有结果。将本文方法与传统方法进行了对比,结果表明,对含有多个速度脉冲的强地震动记录的识别,本文方法优于传统方法,具有较高的可靠性、鲁棒性、灵活性。     

A review on trade-off analysis of ecosystem services for sustainable land-use management

Ecosystem services are substantial elements for human society. The central challenge to meet the human needs from ecosystems while sustain the Earth’s life support systems makes it urgent to enhance efficient natural resource management for sustainable ecological and socioeconomic development. Trade-off analysis of ecosystem services can help to identify optimal decision points to balance the costs and benefits of the diverse human uses of ecosystems. In this sense, the aim of this paper is to provide key insights into ecosystem services trade-off analysis at different scales from a land use perspective, by comprehensively reviewing the trade-offs analysis tools and approaches that addressed in ecology, economics and other fields. The review will significantly contribute to future research on trade-off analysis to avoid inferior management options and offer a win-win solution based on comprehensive and efficient planning for interacting multiple ecosystem services.     

Interaction of temperature and salinity on the expression of immunity factors in different tissues of juvenile turbot Scophthalmus maximus based on response surface methodology

Central Composite Design(CCD) and response surface methodology were used in the experiment to examine the combined effect of temperature(16-28℃) and salinity(18-42) on Hsp70 and IgM genes expression levels in turbot(Scophthalmus maximus) liver and kidney.The results showed that the coefficients of determination(R~2=0.965 2 for liver Hsp70,0.972 9 for kidney Hsp70,0.921 for liver IgM and 0.962 1 for kidney IgM) and probability values(P0.01) were significant for the regression model.The interactive effect between temperature and salinity on liver Hsp70,kidney Hsp70 and liver IgM were not significant(P0.05),while the interactive effect between temperature and salinity on kidney IgM was significant(P0.01).The model equation could be used in practice for forecasting Hsp70 and IgM genes expression levels in the liver and kidney of juvenile turbot via applying statistical optimization of the response of interest,at which the maximum liver Hsp70,kidney Hsp70,liver IgM and kidney IgM of1.48,1.49,2.48,and 1.38,respectively,were reached.The present model may be valuable in assessing the feasibility of turbot farming at different geographic locations and,furthermore,could be a useful reference for scientists studying the immunity of turbot.     

近60年气候变化及人类活动对艾比湖流域水资源的影响

以艾比湖流域为研究对象,基于研究区近60年水文、气象、社会经济等资料,分析了气候变化与人类活动对艾比湖流域水资源的影响。研究表明:(1)近60年,艾比湖流域三大主要干流径流总体呈现增加趋势;(2)近60年,虽然艾比湖流域干流径流量总体增加,但由于人类活动影响作用,导致艾比湖湖区面积和入湖量均呈现逐渐减少的趋势;(3)近60年,人类活动负影响的效果高于气候变化正影响的效果,人类活动的加剧是导致艾比湖流域湖区面积持续减少的主要原因。