国家气象中心业务数值预报发展的回顾与展望

本文回顾了国家气象中心建立数值预报业务以来,国家级业务数值预报系统,主要是中、短期预报系统的发展历程,评估了目前业务数值预报的预报水平和基本特点,简述了我国业务数值预报发展的不同阶段取得的主要进展。通过对目前我国业务数值预报发展中存在的问题和不足的分析,讨论下一步的工作重点,并对未来的发展做初步展望。     

近50年陕西黄土高原云量和气温年际变化

利用陕西黄土高原24个气象站1957年以来的气温、总云量和低云量观测资料,分析了它们的年际及年代际演变趋势及相关关系。结果表明:近50年区域年平均气温波动升高,尤其是1987年以后;北部风沙区气温的年际变化较大,增温幅度由北向南递减;1957年以来区域年平均总云量呈逐渐减少趋势,低云量下降趋势较总云量更为明显,2000年以后总云量有所增加。相关分析表明:陕西黄土高原年平均气温与年均总云量及低云量呈明显的负相关,均通过了0.001显著性水平检验,且低云量的相关更为显著;总云量和低云量与降水量呈显著正相关;不同区域和不同季节总云量和低云量与气温的相关系数有明显差异,但与降水量的相关非常显著。     

钻孔施工对新丰江和平地电台深井地电阻率观测影响的数值模拟

1 观测背景 深井地电阻率观测在消除地表干扰、季节天气变化影响等方面效果良好(刘昌谋等, 1994),是当前地电阻率观测的发展趋势.广东新丰江和平地电台于1992年起开展深孔布极地电阻率观测,并在几次显著地震前观测到明显的异常变化.2015年3—5月,该台地电阻率测值出现显著异常变化,怀疑为测区钻孔施工对电阻率测值的变化起了决定性作用.为深入了解地电阻率变化的异常机理,在现场调查核实的基础上,收集数据资料建立测区电性结构有限元模型,采用数值模拟对异常进行定量分析,探讨钻孔施工对地电阻率观测的影响幅度与规律.     

保山地体新元古代——早古生代沉积岩碎屑锆石年代学及其构造意义

滇西潞西地区位于青藏高原东南缘,大地构造位置上属于保山地体。由于新生代强烈的陆内变形作用,保山地体与青藏高原腹地体的对应关系难以确定。野外观察及LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年结果表明,潞西新元古代—早古生代地层(震旦系—寒武系蒲满哨群及下奥陶统大矿山组)大部分碎屑锆石Th/U0.1,说明其大多为岩浆成因。U-Pb年龄跨度较大,太古宙—早古生代都有分布,且具有明显的562Ma、892Ma及2265Ma年龄峰,以及较弱的1680Ma和2550Ma年龄峰。保山地体潞西地区沉积岩碎屑锆石年龄分布特征与特提斯喜马拉雅、南羌塘沉积地层碎屑锆石年龄分布特征相似,说明其具有相同的物源——冈瓦纳大陆北部的印度大陆。在新元古代晚期—早古生代,保山地体位于印度大陆北缘,与南羌塘、喜马拉雅地体相邻。伴随着俯冲相关的增生造山过程,保山地体形成相应的新元古代末期—早古生代沉积地层。     

居住区典型地物热环境的日变化及其相互影响分析

居住区热环境状况是影响局地微气候变化的重要因素,研究居住区地物的热环境特征,对于了解和改善微气候具有重要意义。为了更好地揭示居住区热环境特征,本研究使用热红外成像仪对北京市某校园居住区进行观测,获取了夏季不同天气状况下（晴天、阴天、多云）的24 h热红外影像数据。依据各天气数据和地物属性,系统分析了各地物日变化规律,并通过垂线法判定邻近地物的温度边界范围,进而揭示出地物间温度交互特征。结果如下：① 太阳辐射是影响地物白天温度变化的主要因素,与地物温度呈正相关性;在多云天气下,地物的最高温度滞后至16:00出现,且地物温度曲线呈现连续的“锯齿状”升降趋势,云层的大量运动是导致多云天气下的地物温度波动变化的关键因素;沥青道路在夜间的温度均高于其他地物,并且夜间持续放热,提生周围环境温度;阴影能够有效减少地物吸收的太阳辐射量,降低地物表面温度;植被的冠层厚度与地物温度呈负相关性,因此增加居住区内绿植的冠层厚度,增大区域阴影面积有助于改善局地微气候;② 树木和裸土在06:00和14:00的温度交互作用强烈,表明在地物交界处,全天持续发生显著的热量交换;而夜间至凌晨,草坪与人行道持续进行热量交换,帮助降低路面温度,缓解周围高温状况。     

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of conventional energy carbon emissions in Kazakhstan based on LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT model

Quantitative analysis of the impact factors in energy-related CO₂ emissions serves as an important guide for reducing carbon emissions and building an environmentally-friendly society. This paper aims to use LMDI method and a modified STIRPAT model to research the conventional energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The results show that the trajectory of CO₂ emissions displayed U-shaped curve from 1992 to 2013. Based on the extended Kaya identity and additive LMDI method, we decomposed total CO₂ emissions into four influencing factors. Of those, the economic active effect is the most influential factor driving CO₂ emissions, which produced 110.86 Mt CO₂ emissions, with a contribution rate of 43.92%. The second driving factor is the population effect, which led to 11.87 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of 4.7%. On the contrary, the energy intensity effect is the most inhibiting factor, which caused–110.90 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–43.94%, followed by the energy carbon structure effect resulting in–18.76 Mt CO₂ emissions with a contribution rate of–7.43%. In order to provide an in-depth examination of the change response between energy-related CO₂ emissions and each impact factor, we construct a modified STIRPAT model based on ridge regression estimation. The results indicate that for every 1% increase in population size, economic activity, energy intensity and energy carbon structure, there is a subsequent increase in CO₂ emissions of 3.13%, 0.41%, 0.30% and 0.63%, respectively.     

和田河流域水资源与生态环境变化及其对策研究

和田河流域光,热,水、土地资源丰富,农牧业 潜力很大,然而该流域生态环境极其脆弱,环境灾害多发,水资源开发利用及区域发展不可避免地其生态环境产生很大影响。本文从多个侧面阐述了该流域水资源与生态环境的相互关系和影响,并提出了相应的对策和建议。     

Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau,China

Floods have changed in a complex manner, triggered by the changing environment (i.e., intensified human activities and global warming). Hence, for better flood control and mitigation in the future, bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation events is of great necessity to be performed within the context of changing environment. Given this, in this paper, the Pettitt test and wavelet coherence transform analysis are used in combination to identify the period with transformed flood-generating mechanism. Subsequently, the primary and secondary return periods of annual maximum flood (AMF) discharge and extreme precipitation (Pr) during the identified period are derived based on the copula. Meanwhile, the conditional probability of occurring different flood discharge magnitudes under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated using the joint dependence structure between AMF and Pr. Moreover, Monte Carlo-based algorithm is performed to evaluate the uncertainties of the above copula-based analyses robustly. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions, which are Weihe River Basin (WRB) and Jinghe River Basin (JRB). Results indicate that: (1) the 1994–2014 and 1981–2014 are identified as periods with transformed flood-generating mechanism in the WRB and JRB, respectively; (2) the primary and secondary return periods for AMF and Pr are examined. Furthermore, chance of occurring different AMF under varying Pr scenarios also be elucidated according to the joint distribution of AMF and Pr. Despite these, one thing to notice is that the associate uncertainties are considerable, thus greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. Results of this study offer technical reference for copula-based frequency analysis under changing environment at regional and global scales.     

精河6.6级地震前精河水管仪、伸缩仪异常特征分析

2017年8月9日精河发生6.6级地震。本文首先利用相关、回归分析研究了气温对水管仪、伸缩仪的影响,并进行了干扰的定量剔除;其次,通过回归残差分析研究地震前水管仪、伸缩仪的异常特征,认为精河6.6级地震前存在3项异常:①2016年5月22日起,水管仪NS分量S倾幅度0.53";②2017年3月24日起,EW分量E倾幅度0.28";③2016年9月10日起,伸缩仪NS分量出现压缩现象。