基于自动观测的天气现象电码自动编制实现流程

实现地面气象要素自动观测是近年来我国气象观测领域的发展趋势,观测自动化给地面观测业务和观测数据的应用推广带来较大改变。本文研究了基于自动观测的天气现象代码表WMO4680,分析得出WMO4680简化了视程障碍和降水阵性的代码分类,比WMO4677编码更适合自动观测设备的特点。结合我国业务天气现象电码编制原则,设计实现了现在天气现象电码和过去天气现象电码的自动编制。根据我国目前可自动化观测的要素数目,经过流程设计和当前最新业务改革内容,可以实现46个天气电码的自动编报。     

闪电和固、液态降水关系差异的数值模拟

为了进一步认识闪电和固、液态降水的关系,本文利用三维雷暴云动力-电耦合数值模式,通过设置敏感性试验组,模拟了一次雷暴过程,分析雷暴中闪电和降水的特征,以及闪电和固、液态降水对垂直风速的依赖关系,探讨闪电与固、液态降水的时空分布关系和单次闪电表征的降水量(RPF:rainyields per flash)。结果表明:对流云降水中,液态降水占主要部分,但固态降水比液态降水对于垂直风速的依赖性更强。随着对流的增强,固态降水在总降水中占的比重越来越大。首次放电时间不断提前,闪电峰值落后垂直风速峰值,总闪数一开始随对流的增强而增加,对流一旦增强到一定程度,总闪数则逐渐减小。固态降水和液态降水的开始时间和峰值时间均随着对流的增强而不断提前,而液态降水出现时间和峰值时间均提前于固态降水。雷暴云首次放电的时间滞后于液态降水,而闪电峰值提前固态降水峰值或与固态降水峰值同时产生。雷暴云中的放电活动集中在强降水区域前缘的较弱降水区,强降水区对应的闪电较少,对流的增强会使降水区域面积、降水量和降水强度增加。由于液态降水总量远大于固态降水总量,固、液态RPF的数值相差达到一个量级,但单位时间内固态降水和液态降水增加的速率相近。在单位时间内闪电次数越多,RPF则越小,而固态RPF和闪电次数的线性相关性明显好于液态RPF,所以利用固态降水可以更好地预报闪电。这些结果有助于进一步认识闪电和降水的关系,并可为闪电预报提供新的思路。     

A diagnostic analysis on the effect of the residual layer in convective boundary layer development near Mongolia using 20th century reanalysis data

Although the residual layer has already been noted in the classical diurnal cycle of the atmospheric boundary layer,its effect on the development of the convective boundary layer has not been well studied. In this study, based on 3-hourly20 th century reanalysis data, the residual layer is considered as a common layer capping the convective boundary layer. It is identified daily by investigating the development of the convective boundary layer. The region of interest is bounded by(30°–60° N, 80°–120° E), where a residual layer deeper than 2000 m has been reported using radiosondes. The lapse rate and wind shear within the residual layer are compared with the surface sensible heat flux by investigating their climatological means, interannual variations and daily variations. The lapse rate of the residual layer and the convective boundary layer depth correspond well in their seasonal variations and climatological mean patterns. On the interannual scale, the correlation coefficient between their regional averaged(40°–50°N, 90°–110° E) variations is higher than that between the surface sensible heat flux and convective boundary layer depth. On the daily scale, the correlation between the lapse rate and the convective boundary layer depth in most months is still statistically significant during 1970–2012. Therefore, we suggest that the existence of a deep neutral residual layer is crucial to the formation of a deep convective boundary layer near the Mongolian regions.     

2008年1月贵州冻雨的数值模拟和层结结构分析

针对2008年初发生在贵州地区的严重冻雨过程,分别从环流背景、低空急流和水汽输送条件等方面分析了准静止锋维持的原因,并选取本次灾害最严重的第3次过程为典型个例,利用WRF模式针对准静止锋影响下的贵州冻雨进行数值模拟来研究冻雨的发生机制。模拟结果较好地反映出高低空环流形势场特征,强雨雪降水带的走向、落区,以及地面温度的分布,均与观测基本吻合。通过分析高分辨率模式的模拟结果,揭示了准静止锋上贵州地区冻雨的层结结构特征及云物质在冻雨区的分布特征。研究结果表明,贵州中部的冻雨区除一般的三层结构(包含冰晶层、暖层和冷层)外,还具有典型的两层结构特征,即:高空的固体降水粒子稀少,900~600 h Pa深厚的逆温层和0℃以上的暖层使中低空存在大量液态粒子,下落的液滴经过近地面的浅薄冷层,形成大量过冷却雨滴,而后降落至地面迅速冻结。     

Atypical occlusion process caused by the merger of a sea-breeze front and gust front

An atypical occlusion process that occurred in North China on 14 July 2011 is studied based on both observations and a real-data Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. The results show that this atypical occlusion process was significantly different from the traditional, synoptic-scale occlusion process that occurs within extratropical cyclones. It was caused by the merger of two cold-type mesoscale fronts. One of the fronts developed from the gust front of convective storms, while the other was a sea-breeze front. As the two fronts moved towards each other, the warm air between them was squeezed and separated from the surface. An atypical occluded front was formed when the two fronts merged, with the warm air forced aloft. This kind of occlusion is termed a "merger" process, different from the well-known "catch-up" and "wrap-up" processes. Moreover, local convection was found to be enhanced during the merger process, with severe convective weather produced in the merger area.     

南阳市1960—2013年高温日数变化特征及原因分析

根据国家气象信息中心气象资料室1960—2013年南阳市地面气象月报表的观测资料,采用线性回归、简单相关系数法、M-K突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了南阳市高温日数的变化特征,结果表明:1960—2013年南阳市共出现788次高温日;出现高温日数最多的是2013年,为37天;1987年无高温日。南阳市高温日数6月份最多,占高温天气发生总次数的36.7%;9月最少,占总次数的2.2%。从1960—2013年高温日的逐年分布情况可以看出,54 a间高温日数整体呈下降趋势,倾向率为-1.59天/10a。南阳市年高温日数在20世纪70年代的降低是一突变,具体是从1971年开始。由南阳高温日数小波系数实部图可见,高温日数存在多重时间周期尺度上的嵌套复杂结构现象,包含了多个不同尺度的周期变化,南阳年高温日数变化存在3个明显的周期振荡,分别是10~12 a、26~28 a和50~51 a的尺度。从小波方差图中可以看出,12 a、28 a、50 a存在峰值,其中尺度50 a峰值最高,能量最大;其次是尺度12 a的。高温日数较多年比高温日数较少年6—8月500 h Pa平均环流场副高西伸脊点更偏西;高温日数较多年500 h Pa平均环流场更为平直,以纬向环流为主,不利于冷空气南下,因此多晴热天气。高温日数较少年环流场上华北地区波动幅度更大,冷空气和降水天气过程较多。1960—2013年5—9月降水量呈增加趋势,这也相应地减少了高温天气。1960—2013年5—9月南阳市日照时数一直处于下降趋势,日照时数的下降也使高温日数减少。     

鄂尔多斯盆地深部富铀烃源岩提供铀源可能性的实验研究

鄂尔多斯盆地上三叠统延长组长7段石油优质烃源岩以富铀为特色,而盆地侏罗?白垩纪地层以赋存大量砂岩型铀矿而著称.为探索深部长7富铀烃源岩为浅部砂岩型铀矿形成提供铀源的可能性,选择盆地南部的富铀烃源岩、油样以及具有代表性的碳酸铀酰作为反应物,在中?高温高压还原条件下分别进行烃源岩生排烃?排铀模拟实验和油?铀关系模拟实验.结...     

Dependence of the holmberg effect on separations between paired galaxies

To investigate the dependence of the Holmberg effect of paired galaxies on three-dimensional separations, we have constructed four subsamples characterized by three-dimensional separations s ≤ 50 kpc, 50 kpc < s ≤ 100 kpc , 100kpc < s ≤150kpc , and 150 kpc < s ≤ 200 kpc , respectively. In this study, linear correlation coefficients and surplus standard deviations of color indices, luminosity, and size between two components of paired galaxies are calculated. It is found that there is a weak tendency for correlation coefficients of color indices to increase with decreasing three-dimensional separations, but such a tendency does not exist for ones of luminosity and size. We also note that there is no tendency for surplus standard deviations to decrease with decreasing three-dimensional separations. This suggests that it is still very difficult to clearly affirm the dependence of the Holmberg Effect of paired galaxies on three-dimensional separations.     

A new interpretation of zero Lyapunov exponents in BKL time for Mixmaster cosmology

A global relation ship between cosmological time and Belinskii-Khalatnikov-Lifshitz(BKL)time during the entire evolution of the Mixmaster Bianchi Ⅸ universe is used to explain why all the Lyapunov exponents are zero at the BKL time.The actual reason is that the domain of the cosmological time is finite as the BKL time runs from minus infinity to infinity.     

Primordial non-Gaussianity from LAMOST surveys

The primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) in the matter density perturbation is a very powerful probe of the physics of the very early Universe. The local PNG can induce a distinct scale-dependent bias on the large scale structure distribution of galaxies and quasars, which could be used for constraining it. We study the detection limits of PNG from the surveys of the LAMOST telescope. The cases of the main galaxy survey, the luminous red galaxy (LRG) survey, and the quasar survey of dif- ferent magnitude limits...