Modeling urban land use conversion of Daqing City,China: a comparative analysis of “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches

During the past decades, Daqing City, China has experienced unprecedented urban expansion due to the rapid development of petroleum industry. With rapid urbanization and lack of strategic planning, Daqing is facing many socio-economic and environmental problems, and it is essential to examine the process of urbanization, and to develop policy recommendations for sustainable development. To address this problem, this paper examined the urbanization process of Daqing City through developing two multi-level models: an integrated system dynamic (SD) and CLUE-S model (SD-CLUES), and an integrated SD and stochastic cellular automata model (SD-CA). Analysis of results suggests that these two models generate significantly different results. With the SD-CLUES model, new urban developments are clustered in the downtown area or along major transportation networks, indicating exogenous driving forces playing an important role in shaping urban spatial dynamics. With the SD-CA model, on the contrary, the resultant new urban cells are spread over the entire study area, and associated with existing urban areas. Further, visual comparisons and validations indicate that the SD-CA model is a better alternative in explaining the urbanization mechanism of Daqing City. In addition, analysis of results suggests that the stochastic factor in the CA model has significant impact on the modeling accuracy.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

秦皇岛地质环境综述

通过大量野外调查和对已有成果的分析,发现该地区地质环境破坏严重,并有恶化的趋势.该地区主要地质环境问题包括地质灾害、水环境污染、海水入侵和海岸蚀退,多数为人为因素引发,自然灾害是次要灾害.最后针对不同的地质环境问题提出综合保护建议.     

World Stress Map Database as a Resource for Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering

Knowledge of the in situ stress state is of key importance for rock engineering. We inform the reader about the World Stress Map (WSM) database and its application to rock mechanics and rock engineering purpose, and in particular the orientation of maximum horizontal stress. We discuss the WSM and the quality ranking system of stress orientation data. We show one example of discrete-measured and computed-smoothed stress orientations from central and northern Europe with respect to relative plate velocity trajectories. We give first insights into ongoing development of a second, more Quantitative World Stress Map database which compiles globally rock-type specific stress magnitudes versus depth. We discuss the vertical stress component, and the lateral stress coefficient versus depth for different rock types. We display stress magnitudes in 2D and 3D stress space, and investigate stress ratios in relation to depth, lithology and tectonic faulting regime.     

深层地下水开采引起的生态环境问题及其治理

在分析河北平原深层地下水资源的构成与开发利用问题的基础上,论述了深层地下水严重超采引起的生态环境问题,通过建立深层地下水开发利用管理模型,探求深层地下水可开采量,提出了深层地下水开发利用的对策以及防治生态环境继续恶化的措施.     

震源应力场与构造应力场

每个地震按照双力偶模型所得到的震源应力场,有的反映构造应力场,有的反映转换应力场。凡是在已存在的活动断裂上由粘滑发震的震源机制解而得出的P、B和T轴与构造应力场的最大、中等、最小的压力主轴是对应的,只是略有偏离。分析了岩块相对滑动产生的转换应力场,证明由转换应力场所产生的脆性剪切破裂而发震的震源机制解得出的P、B、T轴则与构造应力场三个主轴方向可以完全不符。通过对具体震例分析表明,当考虑了转换应力场之后可对几个地震区的应力场得到统一的解释。因此,在一个地区根据震源机制解来恢复构造应力场时必须先判明:是构造应力的直接作用下的粘滑或剪切破裂,还是转换应力场所形成的、共轭剪切破裂,前者可直接恢复构造应力场,后者则应经过转换寸能恢复构造应力场。     

Progress in studies on the structure and physical properties of the mantle in China

The studies on the structure and physical properties of the mantle by Chinese geophysicists from 2003 to 2007 are reviewed in this report. It mainly contains studies on the seismic velocity structure of the mantle,anisotropy of the mantle,mantle discontinuities,mantle convection and the physical properties of mantle. The review concerns mainly the contents,the methods used and the results of the studies. It can be found that new progress in the study on the structure and physical properties of mantle has been made in the last four years in China. In some preexis-tent areas much progress has been made,advanced methods have been adopted,extensive international co-operation has been conducted in many ways,and the scope of the co-operation has gradually expanded. More-over,some new fields appear as well.     

基于空间数据挖掘技术的森林防火智能决策支持系统研究

从智能空间决策支持系统的功能需求出发,分析了森林防火是复杂的空间决策问题,它具有动态性、分布性、数据量大、数据性质复杂等特点,决策者面对突如其来的灾害及海量的、复杂的、易变的和分布的数据和信息,很难做出及时、科学和准确的决策。因此,建立集成空间信息分析处理的、具有知识发现能力的智能决策支持系统是十分必要的。而空间在线分析处理(Spatial OLAP)和空间在线分析挖掘(Spatial OLAM,Spatial OLAPmining)是集成空间数据处理的OLAP和OLAM,能够在空间数据仓库上发现隐含的知识和规则,并在不同的维、度上进行查询和分析。从系统需求分析、功能设计、系统实现和系统运行实例方面,论述融合了GIS、空间OLAP和空间OLAM技术的空间智能决策支持系统的设计思想和关键技术的实现。提出基于空间OLAP和OLAM知识发现机制,建立一种集成GIS、空间数据仓库、空间OLAP/OLAM和决策支持系统的新型决策分析工具。     

定位参数抗差估计的无偏性

根据抗差估计中误差的最基本假设—对称分布 ,考虑到ρ函数的条件及把反对称估计作为抗差估计计算迭代的初始值 ,验证了定位参数的抗差估计值也一定是反对称估计 ,满足无偏性条件 ,得到定位参数的抗差估计是无偏估计。     

定位参数抗差估计的无偏性

根据抗差估计中误差的最基本假设一对称分布,考虑到ρ函数的条件及把反对称估计作为抗差估计计算迭代的初始值,验证了定位参数的抗差估计值也一定是反对称估计,满足无偏性条件,得到定位参数的抗差估计是无偏估计.