Earthquake Probability of the “Seismic Gap” on the Longmenshan Fault

Using the layered viscoelastic medium model, this paper calculated the coulomb stress loading effect on the Lushan epicenter generated by the Wenchuan earthquake. Then combined with the rate-state friction law proposed by Dieterich J. (1994), we obtain the probability of an M_W ≥ 6.0 earthquake occurring in the vicinity of Lushan. The results show that the probability of M_W ≥ 6.0 earthquake of the Lushan region in 2013 is up to 18%, indicating that the stress disturbance caused by the Wenchuan earthquake accelerated the Lushan earthquake. This paper also calculates the coulomb stress accumulation on the "seismic gap" generated by the two earthquakes of Wenchuan and Lushan, and combined with the background seismicity, gives the M_W>6.0 earthquake probability of the "seismic gap". Although there may be a certain error in the results because of the Dayi earthquake, selection of the medium model parameters and background seismicity, the seismic probability of the "seismic gap" is increasing. Thus, we think destructive earthquakes are still likely to occur in the "seismic gap".     

Distribution of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers in surface soils along an altitudinal transect at cold and humid Mountain Changbai: Implications for the reconstruction of paleoaltimetry and paleoclimate

Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers(GDGTs)serve as important tools for the quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate and paleoecology in both continental and marine environments.Previous studies of GDGTs in the terrestrial environments focused primarily on the soils from the relatively warm-humid or cold-dry regions.However,it is still unclear how GDGTs respond to environmental variables in the cold-humid regions.Here,we collected soils along an altitudinal transect of Mountain(Mt.)Changbai,which has a typical cold-humid climate,to investigate the distribution of GDGTs and the response of GDGT-based proxies to changes in climate along the transect.The shift in the distribution of archaeal isoprenoidal GDGTs(iso GDGTs)revealed that the archaeal community varied significantly along the transect,which can affect the relationship between TEX_(86)and mean annual air temperature(MAT).In addition,the increased temperature seasonality at higher altitudes exerted a significant impact on TEX_(86).We proposed a global calibration of TEX_(86)for the growing season temperature reconstruction in the soil environments:T=85.19×TEX_(86)-46.30(R~2=0.84,p0.001).The methylation indices for 5-methyl branched GDGTs(br GDGTs)including MBT′_(5me)and MBT_(5/6),showed correlation with soil water content but no relationship with MAT,indicating that MBT′_(5me)and MBT_(5/6)from cold-humid environments may be not suitable for temperature and altitude reconstruction.In contrast,the recently developed p H proxies,including MBT′_(6me)(the methylation index for 6-methyl br GDGTs),CBT(Cyclisation index of Branched Tetraethers),IR_(IIa’)(Isomer ratio of IIa′)and IR_(IIIa′)(Isomer ratio of IIIa′)exhibited significant correlations with soil p H,suggesting these proxies can still be used for soil p H reconstruction in the coldhumid regions.The combination of MBT′_(5me)and MBT′_(6me)was strongly related to different types of climate(cold-dry,warmhumid,cold-humid,and warm-dry).For example,MBT′_(5me)0.65 and MBT′_(6me)0.55 are diagnostic for the cold-humid climate.Thus,the combination of MBT′_(5me)and MBT′_(6me)has the potential as a tool for the identification of different types of paleoclimate.     

A project of sustainable utilization of forest resources supported by GIS

lINThODUCnoNResourcesarethefoundationofeconomicdevel-opment,andsustainabledevelopmentistheinevitabletrendofhumandevelopment.Thesustainabedevel-opmentofChineseforestryisanimPOrtantPOrtionofChinesesustainabledevelopmentstrategy,andforestresourceisthekeyproblemofsustaialleforestryde-velopment.Therefore,exploringthereasonableforestresourcemanagementandutilizationprojecthasimpor-tantsignificancefortherealizationofsustainableforestrydevelopment-DaHingganMountainsforestdistrictisoneoftheimPOrt…     

万福矿深埋大断面T型交叉点高预应力NPR支护机制及应用

为解决深部大断面软岩巷道交叉点大变形问题,以万福煤矿千米深井巷道交叉点为工程实例,首次在巷道支护中运用微观负泊松比（negative Poisson’s ration,NPR）钢锚索。采用室内试验、理论分析、数值模拟及现场试验相结合的方法,分析了深埋巷道交叉点的围岩变形机制,提出了以微观NPR钢锚索为核心的控制对策。通过室内静力拉伸试验对微观NPR钢锚索的力学特性进行研究,结果表明,微观NPR钢锚索拉伸全过程表现为高恒阻,均匀拉伸,无屈服平台,破断时无明显颈缩现象。通过理论推导,基于T型巷道交叉点围岩最大影响范围,建立微观NPR钢锚索支护T型巷道交叉口最大影响范围计算模型。通过数值模拟,再现T型巷道交叉口的破坏演化过程,分析对比普通支护/微观NPR钢锚索支护效果。现场开展支护应用试验与监测,验证了长短微观NPR钢锚索联合支护对策具有良好的交叉口围岩大变形控制效果,为交叉口围岩安全稳定控制提供了新支护材料和支护手段。     

Study on runoff simulation of the upstream of Minjiang River under future climate change scenarios

Climate change is one of the main factors that affect runoff changes. In the upstream of Minjiang River, the temperature increased significantly in the last 50 years, while the precipitation decreased on the contrary. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on site runoff, watershed runoff depth and evaporation, nine climate scenarios are assumed based on rainfall and temperature indicators. A SWAT model of Minjiang River is constructed, and runoff simulation is carried out with the nine scenarios. The results show that if precipitation increases or decreases 20 %, the change rate of runoff depth will increase or decrease 28–32 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of runoff depth will decrease or increase 1–6 %; if temperature increases or decreases 2 °C, the change rate of the potential evaporation will increase or decrease 5–16 %, and the actual evaporation rate of variation will increase or decrease 1–6 %. Overall, precipitation variation has greater effect on simulated runoff than temperature variation dose. In addition, temperature variation has more obvious effect on the runoff simulation results in dry years than in wet years. The actual evaporation of watershed depends on evaporation capacity and precipitation and increases with the increasing of the potential evaporation and precipitation. The study also shows that the climate change scenarios analysis technology, combined with SWAT hydrological model, can effectively simulate the effect of climate change on runoff.     

地表过程与人类活动对硅产出影响的研究进展

硅元素是地球第二大组成元素,深刻影响着地表物质循环,是陆海相互作用研究、全球碳循环研究的关键元素之一.从自然风化、生物过程和人类活动3个方面综述了国内外有关地表过程对硅产出影响的研究进展,重点分析了生物过程和人类活动在硅生物地球化学循环过程中的作用.综合分析指出,应着重开展生物参与下原生/次生硅酸盐矿物风化速率的研究,重视高等植物在区域硅循环中的作用;富营养化与筑坝对于河流硅的滞留都十分重要,因筑坝产生的水库清水下泄在中下游河道产生的潜在效应很可能对河口硅输入产生重要的影响.应采用地球化学示踪技术,加强这方面的定量研究、模型研究、过程研究以及系统的综合性研究,特别是对流域地表过程的改变以及与筑坝、富营养化过程的联合作用,应进行深入的多学科交叉综合研究.     

柴达木盆地南翼山油田新近系油砂山组低渗微裂缝储集层特征及成因分析

通过岩心观察、薄片鉴定并借助X衍射全岩矿物分析,对柴达木盆地南翼山油田新近系油砂山组储集层特征进行分析。该区岩石中泥质含量高,岩性复杂,可划分为泥岩、碳酸盐岩、砂岩和混积岩4种类型。储集层中发育粒间孔、溶蚀孔、微孔隙和微裂缝等,形成了具有双重孔隙介质的储集空间特征。微裂缝是该区主要渗流通道,而微孔隙是主要储集空间,储集层物性总体较差。该区微裂缝类型包括构造缝、溶蚀缝和成岩缝。储集层岩石纹层发育,砂质纹层和泥灰质纹层交互出现,沉积和成岩作用过程中岩石受力不均衡、碳酸盐矿物的溶解以及泥岩收缩是形成微裂缝的主要原因。该区储集层物性受压实作用明显变差,溶蚀和胶结作用同时存在,对储集层物性影响较大。储集层岩石毛管压力曲线由近似垂直的斜线段和近似水平的曲线段两部分组成,中间存在较为明显的拐折点。斜线段反映了微裂缝特征,近似水平曲线反映了微孔隙特征。利用毛管压力曲线求取的排驱压力和平均孔喉半径无法真实地表述此类微裂缝储集层的孔隙结构特征,提出了有效孔喉半径概念,可以合理表述该区微裂缝储集层孔隙结构特征。     

对莒县矿产资源开发利用情况的调查与思考

1矿产资源开发利用现状及措施 莒县地处著名的庐断裂之沂沭断裂带南部，矿产资源比较丰富。已发现和探明的矿产有36种，这些资源现已被大量开发利用，矿业已成为莒县国民经济发展的重要支柱产业。