可解释性长短期记忆模型用于预测湖泊总磷浓度变化

对湖泊总磷的变化预测和来源识别对水资源调度和流域生态治理有着重要的意义,然而复杂的生化反应和水动力条件导致的非平稳性给湖泊总磷浓度的准确预测带来极大的困难。为克服这一挑战,本文引入了基于加权回归的季节趋势分解(seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess,STL)技术和夏普利加法(SHapley additive exPlanations,SHAP)结合长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory neural network,LSTM)和门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)构建了一个可解释的预测框架,以增强对湖泊总磷浓度演变的预测并提高其可解释性。研究表明:(1)在骆马湖总磷浓度的预测中,该框架拥有较好的预报精度(R²=0.878),优于LSTM和卷积长短期记忆模型(convolutional neural networks and long short term memory network,CNN-LSTM)。当预测时间步长增加到8 h时,该框架有效提高了总磷浓度的预测精度,平均相对误差和均方根误差分别降低了47.1%和33.3%。从预测趋势来看,骆马湖在汛期的总磷平均浓度为0.158 mg/L,相较于非汛期的平均浓度,增加了202.1%。(2)运河来水是骆马湖总磷浓度最重要的影响因素,贡献权重为60.0%,并且不同断面(三湾、三场)的污染源受水动力、气象等因素的影响存在显著的时空差异。本文凸显了神经网络模型在预警水体污染方面的可实施性,并且为提高传统神经网络的学习能力和可解释性的开发与验证提供了重要方向。     

葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段江豚活动规律

长江江豚是我国一级保护野生动物,也是长江生态系统的指示性物种,其种群数量恢复情况及活动规律一直备受关注。本文选择长江宜昌段江豚活动频繁的葛洲坝下游至胭脂坝江段为研究区域,于2021年6月-2022年5月采用定点目测、水上流动监测与无人机监测相结合的方法分区监测长江江豚的游泳行为,分析长江江豚的活动规律,构建了长江江豚出水头次的零膨胀泊松回归模型,识别影响长江江豚出水头次的关键因素,建立长江江豚出水头次与各因素间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段监测到最大江豚出水头次为19头次,长江江豚集群规模以2~3头最为常见,占比达58.1%;长江江豚主要表现出4种行为特征,各行为占比从大到小依次为:玩耍＞休息＞摄食＞抚幼。(2)长江江豚在葛洲坝下游近坝区(A区,葛洲坝至至喜长江大桥)出水头次最多,且在秋冬季节累计出水头次多于春夏季节,冬季累计出水头次最高,达252头次。(3)长江江豚出水头次与电站下泄流量呈显著负相关;浊度增大,长江江豚出水的概率减小。本文研究结果对长江江豚生态保护策略及长江十年禁渔效果评估具有重要参考价值。     

Dynamical features of near-inertial motions in global ocean based on the GDP dataset from 2000 to 2019

Based on the latest oceanic surface drifter dataset from the global drifter program during 2000–2019, this study investigated the global variation of relative frequency shift(RFS), near-inertial energy(NIE) and inverse excess bandwidth(IEB) of near-inertial motions, and analyzed their relations with oceanic mesoscale dynamics, relative vorticity and strain. Compared with previous works, we have some new findings in this study:(1) the RFS was high with negative values in some regions in which we found a significant blue shift of the RFS in the equatorward of 30°N(S) and from 50°N to 60°N in the Pacific, and a red shift in the western boundary currents and their extension regions, the North Atlantic and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current regions;(2) more peak values of the NIE were found in global regions like the South Indian Ocean, the Luzon Strait and some areas of the South Ocean;(3) the global distribution of the IEB were characterized by clear zonal bands and affected by vorticity and wind field;(4)the RFS was elevated as the absolute value of the gradient of vorticity increased, the IEB did not depend on the gradient of vorticity, and the eddy kinetic energy(EKE) weakened with the decrease of the absolute value of RFS;(5) the NIE decreased with increasing absolute value of the relative vorticity and the gradient of vorticity, but it increased with increasing strain and EKE when EKE was larger than 0.003 2 m~2/s~2.     

GM4型磁通门磁力仪性能检验方法

目前,磁通门磁力仪广泛应用于观测地球磁场相对变化的仪器。相对于应用,仪器的性能测试不为人们所熟悉。本文针对GM4型磁通门磁力仪的噪声特性,频率特性,线性度,温度特性等关键性能指标的测试依据、测试方法及流程给予详细的阐述。     

Seasonal change of ice algal and phytoplankton assemblages in the Nella Fjord near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica

The ice algal and phytoplankton assemblages were studied from Nella Fjord near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica from April 12 to December 30, 1992. Algal blooms occurred about 3 cm thick on the bottom of sea ice in late April and mid November to early December respectively, and a phytoplankton bloom appeared in the underlying surface water in mid December following the spring ice algal bloom. The biomass in ice bottom was 1 to 3 orders of magnitude higher than that of surface water. Amphiprora kjellmanii, Berkeleya sp., Navicula glaciei, Nitzschia barkelyi, N. cylindrus /N. curta, N. lecointei and Nitzschia sp. were common in the sea ice temporarily or throughout the study period. The biomass in a certain ice segment was decreased gradually and the dominant species were usually succeeded as the season went on. Nitzschia sublineata and Dactyliosolen antarctica were two seasonal dominant species only observed in underlying water column. The assemblages between bottom of ice and underlying surface water were different except when spring ice algae bloomed. The evidence shows that the ice algal blooms occurred mainly by in situ growth of ice algae, and the phytoplankton bloom was mostly caused by the release of ice algae.     

Softs of Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic: Part I. Formation processes and pedogenetic particularities

Based on the data obtained from tens of the investigated soil profiles scattered over the Fildes Peninsula, King George Island, the maritime Antarctic, the soil-forming processes were discussed. It was concluded that on the weathering crusts resulted from various physical courses, the strong freeze-thaw action within regolith, significant organic matter accumulation, evident leaching and illuviation, as well as initial argillification dominated the formation and development of the soils on the Fildes Peninsula. Furthermore, this study indicated that the juvenility of genesis, poor profile-expression, variation in column thickness, etc. characterized the pedogenetic features of the soils of the Fildes Peninsula.     

Marine hazards in coastal areas and human action against them—A case study of the Changjiang River estuaries and Qiantang River

China's eastern coastal area marine hazards (storm surge, erosion and deposition by tidal currents and seawater intrusion) and the history, present situation, experiences and problems of inhabitants in their fight against marine hazards are discussed in this paper, which also suggests counter-measures against, and scientific and rational management of, coastal area marine hazards in order to protect the coastal and estuarine ecosystems.     

青藏高原地面加热场与四川主汛期降水及伏旱关系

分析了高原地面加热场强度距平指数与四川盆地伏旱及主汛期降水的联系。结果表明,高原前期加热强度同四川盆汛期降水和伏旱程度密切相关。把这些关系引入汛期降水预测模型对提高短期气候预测能力有一定积极意义。     

CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估

本研究利用第五次国际间耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, CMIP5)中的24个模式的工业革命前控制试验(Pre-industrial Control, picontrol)模拟结果, 结合观测资料, 评估了24个CMIP5 模式对东太平洋热带辐合带偶极子(Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole, EPID)降水模态的模拟能力, 并建立了其与模式对热带太平洋气候态模拟之间的联系。结果表明: 1) 绝大多数模式在北半球春季(2—4月)对EPID模态模拟能力较差, 主要原因在于CMIP5模式对热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ)的模拟偏差, 其中模拟效果较差的模式在2—4月的气候态降水分布在赤道以南, 且降水普遍偏强; 2) 对各模式的EPID模态选取的季节按照技巧评分最高进行调整后, 大部分模式能较好地模拟出EPID模态的空间分布特点, 技巧评分在0.6以上, 其中模拟效果好的模式(技巧评分大于0.7)中EPID模态出现的月份同时在中东太平洋气候态表现出“双ITCZ”特征, 且多模式集合结果的模拟误差小于绝大多数模式。     

HALOE资料揭示的热带平流层CH4时空变化特征

中层大气微量成分的分布和变化是中层大气研究的重要问题之一,但是长期以来中层大气的资料非常少。卤素掩星试验（HALOE）对中层大气多种微量气体进行观测,形成中层大气多种微量元素的空间分布和时间演变资料组,这是对中层大气微量气体含量资料的极大补充。作者利用1992～2003年HALOE资料分析热带地区（20°S～20°N）平均的CH4的垂直分布和时间演变特征。结果表明:热带平流层CH4混合比在平流层下层有较充分的混合;热带平流层CH4混合比的季节变化明显,在平流层中上层以年循环为主,而在平流层下部以半年变化为主;热带平流层CH4混合比的年际变化主要有准2年和准5年振荡。