Ocean Model Open Boundary Conditions with Volume,Heat and Salinity Conservation Constraints简

Open boundary conditions （OBCs） for a regional ocean model that can be integrated stably over a long timeframe, as well as satisfy the volume, heat and salinity conservation constraints, were developed. First, the idea that the inward and outward flux information can be treated separately in the OBCs was adopted. Second, in order to maintain the property that the volume, heat and salinity remains conserved in the simulation domain, conservation constraints were added to the OBCs, and an inverse method utilized to solve the constraint equations. Ideal experiments were designed to investigate the conservation property, and the OBCs were found to work efficiently to maintain the volume, heat and salinity conservation. It was found that simulations were comparable to observations when the OBCs were applied to a regional ocean model.     

Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system: part I: boreal summer and fall seasons

This paper shows demonstrable improvement in the global seasonal climate predictability of boreal summer (at zero lead) and fall (at one season lead) seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature from a two-tiered seasonal hindcast forced with forecasted SST relative to two other contemporary operational coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. The results from an extensive set of seasonal hindcasts are analyzed to come to this conclusion. This improvement is attributed to: (1) The multi-model bias corrected SST used to force the atmospheric model. (2) The global atmospheric model which is run at a relatively high resolution of 50 km grid resolution compared to the two other coupled ocean–atmosphere models. (3) The physics of the atmospheric model, especially that related to the convective parameterization scheme. The results of the seasonal hindcast are analyzed for both deterministic and probabilistic skill. The probabilistic skill analysis shows that significant forecast skill can be harvested from these seasonal hindcasts relative to the deterministic skill analysis. The paper concludes that the coupled ocean–atmosphere seasonal hindcasts have reached a reasonable fidelity to exploit their SST anomaly forecasts to force such relatively higher resolution two tier prediction experiments to glean further boreal summer and fall seasonal prediction skill.     

Critical mechanisms for the formation of extreme arctic sea-ice extent in the summers of 2007 and 1996

Along with significant changes in the Arctic climate system, the largest year-to-year variation in sea-ice extent (SIE) has occurred in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas (defined here as the area of focus, AOF), among which the two highly contrasting extreme events were observed in the summers of 2007 and 1996 during the period 1979–2012. Although most efforts have been devoted to understanding the 2007 low, a contrasting high September SIE in 1996 might share some related but opposing forcing mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms for the formation of these two extremes and quantitatively estimate the cloud-radiation-water vapor feedback to the sea-ice-concentration (SIC) variation utilizing satellite-observed sea-ice products and the NASA MERRA reanalysis. The low SIE in 2007 was associated with a persistent anticyclone over the Beaufort Sea coupled with low pressure over Eurasia, which induced anomalous southerly winds. Ample warm and moist air from the North Pacific was transported to the AOF and resulted in positive anomalies of cloud fraction (CF), precipitable water vapor (PWV), surface LWnet (down-up), total surface energy and temperature. In contrast, the high SIE event in 1996 was associated with a persistent low pressure over the central Arctic coupled with high pressure along the Eastern Arctic coasts, which generated anomalous northerly winds and resulted in negative anomalies of above mentioned atmospheric parameters. In addition to their immediate impacts on sea ice reduction, CF, PWV and radiation can interplay to lead to a positive feedback loop among them, which plays a critical role in reinforcing sea ice to a great low value in 2007. During the summer of 2007, the minimum SIC is 31 % below the climatic mean, while the maximum CF, LWnet and PWV can be up to 15 %, 20 Wm^?2, and 4 kg m^?3 above. The high anti-correlations (?0.79, ?0.61, ?0.61) between the SIC and CF, PWV, and LWnet indicate that CF, PWV and LW radiation are indeed having significant impacts on the SIC variation. A new record low occurred in the summer of 2012 was mainly triggered by a super storm over the central Arctic Ocean in early August that caused substantial mechanical ice deformation on top of the long-term thinning of an Arctic ice pack that had become more dominated by seasonal ice.     

Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s?

Improving the understanding of cropland change and its driving factors is a current focus for policy decision-makers in China. The datasets of cropland and cropland changes from the 1970s to the 2000s were used to explore whether climate change has produced spatio-temporal changes to cropland in northern China since the 1970s. Two representative indicators of heat and water resources, which are important determinants of crop growth and productivity, were considered to track climate change, including active accumulated temperatures ≥10 °C (AAT10) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our results showed that rapid cropland change has occurred in northern China since the 1970s, and the area of cropland reclamation (10.23 million ha) was much greater than that of abandoned cropland (2.94 million ha). In the 2000s, the area of cropland with AAT10 higher than 3,000 °C·d increased, while the area of cropland with an SPEI greater than 0.25 decreased compared to the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It appears that climate warming has provided thermal conditions that have aided rapid cropland reclamation in northern China since the 1970s, and drier climatic conditions did not become a limiting factor for cropland reclamation, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s. Approximately 70 % of cropland reclamation areas were located in warmer but drier regions from the 1990s to the 2000s, and approximately 40 % of cropland abandonment occurred in warmer and wetter conditions that were suitable for agriculture during the periods from the 1970s to the 1980s and the 1990s to the 2000s. Our results suggest that climate change can be considered a driving factor of cropland change in the past several decades in northern China, in addition to socioeconomic factors.     

中国西部地区方沸石胶结相与碎屑岩次生优质储集层形成机制

含油气盆地碎屑岩次生优质储集层的发育,除了与广泛发育的方解石胶结相有关外,在中国西部还有一类与沸石族自生矿物胶结的成岩相有关,其中以溶蚀方沸石胶结相形成的次生优质储集层与油气聚集成藏又有十分密切的关联。经实例分析:与自生方沸石胶结有关的成岩相主要受控于扇(辫状河)三角洲前缘相带、火山岩物源和成岩早期的碱性环境;次生优质储集层的形成在时间上主要处于成岩中期A阶段,在空间上受控于邻近的烃源岩、圈闭和输导体的沟通。方沸石矿物在物理性质上具有抗压易溶(有机酸)作用,较其他常见的自生矿物(胶结物)相对优越,就方沸石易于溶蚀的特点而言是较为理想的自生矿物(胶结物)。其溶蚀对孔隙度的贡献率在50％～75％之间,发育几率占绝对优势。所以,在方沸石发育的相带中寻找以粒间溶蚀孔为主的优质储集层,具有可靠的操作性和现实性。     

沁水盆地煤层气成藏主控因素与成藏模式分析

沁水盆地石炭-二叠系煤层厚度大、分布稳定、演化程度高,具有良好的煤层气勘探潜力,是目前国内首个成功商业化开发的煤层气盆地。基于研究区已有地质成果,对影响沁水盆地煤层气富集成藏的主控地质因素与成藏模式进行分析,认为构造运动、水动力条件、煤层埋深、煤岩组成及热演化程度是控制沁水盆地煤层气成藏的主要地质因素,高镜质组含量、高热演化程度、弱水动力条件和较大的埋深是煤层气成藏的有利条件,向斜是煤层气富集成藏的有利部位。     

川南地区龙马溪组页岩有机质特征及其对页岩含气量的影响

四川盆地南部地区广泛发育下古生界寒武系、志留系等多套海相页岩层,其中龙马溪组是该区页岩气勘探开发的重点目标层。根据钻井岩心资料,通过有机碳、热解、碳同位素、等温吸附等地球化学实验分析,对川南地区下志留统龙马溪组页岩的有机质特征及其对页岩含气量的影响进行了研究。结果表明,川南地区龙马溪组页岩有机碳含量较高(平均1.53%),有机质类型较好(Ⅰ型和Ⅱ1型),热演化程度高(Ro为1.94%~2.42%),且页岩含气量较高(平均1.85m3/t)。页岩有机质特征是影响页岩含气量的主要因素,有机质丰度、有机质类型和热演化程度三者共同决定了川南地区龙马溪组页岩的含气量。     

Predicting lake water quality responses to load reduction: a three-dimensional modeling approach for total maximum daily load

Water quality restoration efforts often suffer the risk of ineffectiveness and failure due to lack of quantitative decision supports. During the past two decades, the restoration of one of China’s most heavily polluted lakes, Lake Dianchi, has experienced costly decision ineffectiveness with no detectable water quality improvement. The governments are planning to invest tremendous amount of funds in the next 5 years to continue the lake restoration process; however, without a quantitative understanding between the load reduction and the response in lake water quality, it is highly possible that these planned efforts would suffer the similar ineffectiveness as before. To provide scientifically sound decision support for guiding future load reduction efforts in Lake Dianchi Watershed, a sophisticated quantitative cause-and-effect response system was developed using a three-dimensional modeling approach. It incorporates the complex three dimensional hydrodynamics, fate and transport of nutrients, as well as nutrient-algae interactions into one holistic framework. The model results show that the model performs well in reproducing the observed spatial pattern and temporal trends in water quality. The model was then applied to three total maximum daily load scenarios and two refined restoration scheme scenarios to quantify phytoplankton responses to various external load reduction intensities. The results show that the algal bloom in Lake Dianchi responds to load reduction in a complex and nonlinear way, therefore, it is necessary to apply the developed system for future load reduction and lake restoration schemes for more informed decision making and effective management.