Apparent and real bias in numerical transfer functions in palaeolimnology

We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches.     

Structure cristalline d'une ménéghinite naturelle pauvre en cuivre,Cu0,58Pb12,72(Sb7,04Bi0,24)S24Crystal structure of a Cu-poor natural meneghinite,Cu0.58Pb12.72(Sb7.04Bi0.24)S24

Cu-poor meneghinite from La Lauzière Massif (Savoy, France) has the composition (electron microprobe) (in wt%): Pb 59.50, Sb 20.33, Bi 1.19, Cu 0.87, Ag 0.05, Fe 0.03, S 17.62, Se 0.05, Total 99.64. Its crystal structure (X-ray on a single crystal) was solved with R1=0.0506, wR2=0.1026, with an orthorhombic symmetry, space group Pnma, and a=24.080(5) Å, b=4.1276(8) Å, c=11.369(2) Å, V=1130.0(4) Å³, Z=4. Relatively to the model of Euler and Hellner (1960), this structure shows a significantly lower site occupancy factor for the tetrahedral Cu site (0.146 against 0.25). Among the five other metallic sites, Bi appears in the one with predominant Sb. Developed structural formula: Cu_0.15Pb₂(Pb_0.53Sb_0.47)(Pb_0.46Sb_0.54)(Sb_0.75Pb_0.19Bi_0.06)S₆; the reduced one: Cu_0.58Pb_12.72(Sb_7.04Bi_0.24)S₂₄. The formation of such a Cu-poor variety seems to be related to specific paragenetic conditions (absence of coexisting galena), or to crystallochemical constraints (minor Bi). To cite this article: Y. Moëlo et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 529–536.     

Middle-Late Pleistocene polycyclic evolution of a stable coastal area (southern Apulia, Italy)

The Otranto–Leuca coastal tract is marked by the presence of numerous sea caves placed close to present sea level. They are located generally at the back of a shore platform covered by a sequence of breccia deposits, marine sediments and speleothems. At Grotta di Masseria dell'Orte, marine cemented sands rest on a narrow shore platform at about 6.2 m above mean sea level and are covered by speleothems older than 185 ka. At Grotta del Diavolo, which is mostly filled by breccia deposits, three beach levels have been detected at about 3.0, 3.5 and 5.9 m above msl. They are either covered by or overlie speleothems that yield an U/Th age of 340, 78 ka and between 170.3 and 146.5, respectively. Geomorphological evidence and radiometric ages indicate that the area after a period of uplift has been tectonically stable since the last part of the Middle Pleistocene so that marine landforms close to the present shoreline underwent a polycyclic evolution. The sedimentary fills of sea caves formed during Middle-Late Pleistocene glacial stages, when arid or semiarid conditions promoted the removal of regolith and the development of thick breccia deposits. During Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 9.3, 5.5 and 5.1, cave sediments were partially eroded whereas beach layers and related speleothems developed. These are, in fact, the only marine isotope stages marked by a sea level position which in this Mediterranean region was either close to, or slightly higher than, the present one.     

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.     

Displacements and transformations of nitrate-rich and nitrate-poor water masses in the tropical Pacific during the 1997 El Niño

A Lagrangian analysis was applied to the outputs of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model to describe the redistribution of nitrate-rich and nitrate-poor surface water masses in the tropical Pacific throughout the major 1997 El Niño. The same tool was used to analyze the causes of nitrate changes along trajectories and to investigate the consequences of the slow nitrate uptake in the high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) region during the growth phase of the event. Three patterns were identified during the drift of water masses. The first mechanism is well known along the equator: oligotrophic waters from the western Pacific are advected eastward and retain their oligotrophic properties along their drift. The second concerns the persistent upwelling in the eastern basin. Water parcels have complex trajectories within this retention zone and remain mesotrophic. This study draws attention to the third process which is very specific to the HNLC region and to the El Niño period. During the 1997 El Niño, horizontal and vertical inputs of nitrate decreased so dramatically that nitrate uptake by phytoplankton became the only mechanism driving nitrate changes along pathways. The study shows that because of the slow nitrate uptake characteristic of the tropical Pacific HNLC system, nitrate in the pre-El Niño photic layer can support biological production for a period of several months. As a consequence, the slow nitrate uptake delays the gradual onset of oligotrophic conditions over nearly all the area usually occupied by upwelled waters. Owing to this process, mesotrophic conditions persist in the tropical Pacific during El Niño events.     

Low-pressure adsorption of Ar, Kr, and Xe on carbonaceous materials (kerogen and carbon blacks), ferrihydrite, and montmorillonite: Implications for the trapping of noble gases onto meteoritic matter

Noble gases trapped in meteorites are tightly bound in a carbonaceous carrier labeled “phase Q.” Mechanisms having led to their retention in this phase or in its precursors are poorly understood. To test physical adsorption as a way of retaining noble gases into precursors of meteoritic materials, we have performed adsorption experiments for Ar, Kr, and Xe at low pressures (10⁻⁴ mbar to 500 mbar) encompassing pressures proposed for the evolving solar nebula. Low-pressure adsorption isotherms were obtained for ferrihydrite and montmorillonite, both phases being present in Orgueil (CI), for terrestrial type III kerogen, the best chemical analog of phase Q studied so far, and for carbon blacks, which are present in phase Q and can be considered as possible precursors.Based on adsorption data obtained at low pressures relevant to the protosolar nebula, we propose that the amount of noble gases that can be adsorbed onto primitive materials is much higher than previously inferred from experiments carried out at higher pressures. The adsorption capacity increases from kerogen, carbon blacks, montmorillonite to ferrihydrite. Because of its low specific surface area, kerogen can hardly account for the noble gas inventory of Q. Carbon blacks in the temperature range 75 K-100 K can adsorb up to two orders of magnitude more noble gases than those found in Q. Irreversible trapping of a few percent of noble gases adsorbed on such materials could represent a viable process for incorporating noble gases in phase Q precursors. This temperature range cannot be ruled out for the zone of accretion of the meteorite precursors according to recent astrophysical models and observations, although it is near the lower end of the temperatures proposed for the evolving solar nebula.     

New constraints on granulite facies metamorphism and melt production in the Lewisian Complex,northwest Scotland

In this study, we investigate the metamorphic history of the Assynt and Gruinard blocks of the Archean Lewisian Complex, northwest Scotland, which are considered by some to represent discrete crustal terranes. For samples of mafic and intermediate rocks, phase diagrams were constructed in the Na₂O–CaO–K₂O–FeO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O–TiO₂–O₂ (NCKFMASHTO) system using whole‐rock compositions. Our results indicate that all samples equilibrated at similar peak metamorphic conditions of ~8–10 kbar and ~900–1,000°C, consistent with field evidence for in situ partial melting and the classic interpretation of the central region of the Lewisian Complex as representing a single crustal block. Melt‐reintegration modelling was employed in order to estimate probable protolith compositions. Phase equilibria calculated for these modelled undepleted precursors match well with those determined for a subsolidus amphibolite from Gairloch in the southern region of the Lewisian Complex. Both subsolidus lithologies exhibit similar phase relations and potential melt fertility, with both expected to produce orthopyroxene‐bearing hornblende granulites, with or without garnet, at the conditions inferred for the Badcallian metamorphic peak. For fully hydrated protoliths, prograde melting is predicted to first occur at ~620°C and ~9.5 kbar, with up to 45% partial melt predicted to form at peak conditions in a closed‐system environment. Partial melts calculated for both compositions between 610 and 1,050°C are mostly trondhjemitic. Although the melt‐reintegrated granulite is predicted to produce more potassic (granitic) melts at ~700–900°C, the modelled melts are consistent with the measured compositions of felsic sheets from the central region Lewisian Complex.     

Neogene upper‐crustal cooling of the Olympus range (northern Aegean): major role of Hellenic back‐arc extension over propagation of the North Anatolia Fault Zone

The North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most hazardous active faults on Earth, yet its Pliocene space‐time propagation across the north Aegean domain remains poorly constrained. We use low‐temperature multi‐thermochronology and inverse thermal modelling to quantify the cooling history of the upper crust across the Olympus range. This range is located in the footwall of a system of normal faults traditionally interpreted as resulting from superposed Middle–Late Miocene N–S stretching, related to the back‐arc extension of the Hellenic subduction zone, and a Pliocene‐Quaternary transtensional field, attributed to the south‐westward propagation of the NAFZ. We find that accelerated exhumational cooling occurred between 12 and 6 Ma at rates of 15–35 °C Ma^?1 and decreased to <3 °C Ma^?1 by 8–6 Ma. The absence of significant Plio‐Pleistocene cooling across Olympus suggests that crustal exhumation there is driven by late Miocene back‐arc extension, while the impact of the NAFZ remains limited.