A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Selection of sand models and identification of parameters using an enhanced genetic algorithm

Numerous constitutive models of granular soils have been developed during the last few decades. As a consequence, how to select an appropriate model with the necessary features based on conventional tests and with an easy way of identifying parameters for geotechnical applications has become a major issue. This paper aims to discuss the selection of sand models and parameters identification by using genetic algorithm. A real‐coded genetic algorithm is enhanced for the optimization with high efficiency. Models with gradually varying features (elastic‐perfectly plastic modelling, nonlinear stress–strain hardening, critical state concept and two‐surface concept) are selected from numerous sand models as examples for optimization. Conventional triaxial tests on Hostun sand are selected as the objectives in the optimization. Four key points are then discussed in turn: (i) which features are necessary to be accounted for in constitutive modelling of sand; (ii) which type of tests (drained and/or undrained) should be selected for an optimal identification of parameters; (iii) what is the minimum number of tests that should be selected for parameter identification; and (iv) what is the suitable and least strain level of objective tests to obtain reliable and reasonable parameters. Finally, a useful guide, based on all comparisons, is provided at the end of the discussion. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原典型地区的地貌量化分析——兼对高原“夷平面”的讨论

利用新近公布的SRTM数字高程模型(DEM),选取青藏高原北部及高原内、外流区域进行大尺度定量地貌分析。分析表明,青藏高原不同地区的地貌差异反映了它们在地貌演化上的阶段性。在高原北部的祁连山地区,局部地区绝对高程增加的同时,地势起伏反而变缓。这些地区水系的发育程度普遍较低,剥蚀物质往往只经过近距离的搬运仍滞留在逆冲褶皱带内,山间盆地和平地成为山间小河的侵蚀堆积基准,因此“削高填低”的过程有效地降低了局部地形起伏。高原平坦地势是伴随着造山过程及之后的高海拔侵蚀基准和内流型水系条件下“削高填低”剥蚀过程的结果。我们认为高原内部为现今仍在承受剥蚀的地势平坦面。它的形成具穿时性,是内流型水系河流下切侵蚀能力弱化的结果,不直接反映海拔的高低。如果平坦侵蚀面的形成与海拔高程无必然的关联,或侵蚀面可以在任何海拔高度形成,而不一定代表以海平面为基准的准平原,那么它就不能作为一个可靠的参照面用于直接示踪和约束高原的抬升量和抬升时间。     

The MAR-Vema Fracture Zone intersection surveyed by deep submersible Nautile

One of the two objectives of the Vemanaute cruise of the French deep submersible Nautile, was the geological study of the eastern intersection area between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) and the Vema Fracture Zone in the equatorial Atlantic. Fourteen dives were conducted that allowed detailed geological survey and sampling of the main morphostructural units of this area: the northern and southern walls of the fracture zone, the median ridge, the northern and southern troughs and the nodal basin. In situ observations of recent tectonic features such as furrows, ridges and circular depressions, concentrated within the southern trough, allowed us to establish the location and the size of the present-day displacement zone. Geological investigations have shown that the nodal basin is entirely floored by basalts thus contrasting with other equivalent areas such as the Kane and Oceanographer fracture zone-MAR eastern intersections. Finally, this study stresses the great opposition between the relatively old and tectonically inactive northern part of the fracture, and the southern part which shows active tectonics and recent volcanic activity.     

Assessment of wind-forcing impact on a global wind-wave model using the TOPEX altimeter

The study presents assessment of an operational wave model (Wavewatch III), focusing upon the model sensitivity to wind-forcing products. Four wind fields are used to drive the model, including the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and three other products that assimilate various satellite wind measurements having high spatial resolution, including the QuikSCAT scatterometer. Three wave field statistics: significant wave height, mean zero-crossing wave period, and mean square slope are compared with collocated TOPEX altimeter derivatives to gauge the relative skill of differing wind-forced model runs, as well as to demonstrate an extended use of the altimeter beyond simply supplying wave height for wave model validation and assimilation. Results suggest that model output is critically sensitive to choice of the wind field product. Higher spatial resolution in the wind fields does lead to improved agreement for the higher-order wave statistics.     

Influence of Coupled Rossby Waves on Primary Productivity and Tuna Abundance in the Indian Ocean

Interannual coupled Rossby waves in the extratropical Indian Ocean propagate westward in covarying pycnocline depth, sea surface temperature, and meridional surface wind anomalies from the west coast of Australia between 15°S and 35°S, taking 3–4 years to transit the interior ocean to Madagascar. In the interior subtropical gyre, where the tuna longline catch (TLC) mainly concerns two species (albacore and bigeye), these waves have been observed to affect year-to-year changes in catch, with wave crests (troughs) in the main pycnocline associated with high (low) TLC anomalies. This suggested that tuna longline catch is associated with the entrainment of nutrient-rich pycnocline water into the photic zone and a subsequent increase in primary productivity there. Here, this hypothesis is examined within the context of SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentration (CC). We find the situation the opposite of that expected, with wave crests (troughs) in the main pycnocline associated with low (high) CC anomalies averaged over the photic zone. These results are shown to be consistent with a model relating the anomalous CC tendency to upper-layer divergence in the wave, not unlike that relating surface slicks to upper-layer divergence in internal gravity waves. Thus, the connection between interannual coupled Rossby waves and TLC in the interior subtropical gyre does not appear to derive from wave-induced modulation of the pelagic food web. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An improved methodology for filling missing values in spatiotemporal climate data set

In this paper, an improved methodology for the determination of missing values in a spatiotemporal database is presented. This methodology performs denoising projection in order to accurately fill the missing values in the database. The improved methodology is called empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) pruning, and it is based on an original linear projection method called empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The experiments demonstrate the performance of the improved methodology and present a comparison with the original EOF and with a widely used optimal interpolation method called objective analysis.