The application and comparison of several flux profile relations in CoLM

This paper discusses the important role that flux profile relations play in momentum flux, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux simulations in CoLM （Common Land Model） and compares the application of three flux profile relation schemes in CoLM by means of the Loess Plateau Land-Atmosphere Interaction Pilot Experiment （LOPEX） of 2005. It reveals that the results simulated by the model barely changed in the original flux profile schemes of the models a~er eliminating the very stable condition and the very unstable condition, and there were only tiny changes in numerical values. This indicates that the corrected terms added to fm（ξm）,fh（ξh） were very tiny and can be ignored under very stable and very unstable circumstances. According to a comparison of the three flux profile relations, the simulation results were basically coherent by using any CoLM： the correlation coefficient of the simulation value and the observed value was 0.89, and this bears on the coherence with the numerical procedures for the flux pro- file relations under unstable circumstances. The simulation results were improved considerably by utilizing the Lobocki flux pro- file schemes, which numerical procedures under unstable circumstances differed significantly fi＇om other three flux profile schemes; in this case the correlation coefficient of the value of simulation and the observed value became 0.95. In the next itera- tion of this study, it will be of great importance for the development of the land surface process model to continue experimenting with the application of some novel flux profile schemes in the land surface process models in typical regions.     

Automated mapping of rock slope geometry,kinematics and stability with RSS-GIS

A GIS-implemented, deterministic approach for the automated spatial evaluation of geometrical and kinematical properties of rock slope terrains is presented. Based on spatially distributed directional information on planar geological fabrics and DEM-derived topographic attribute data, the internal geometry of rock slopes can be characterized on a grid cell basis. For such computations, different approaches for the analysis and regionalization of available structural directional information applicable in specific tectonic settings are demonstrated and implemented in a GIS environment. Simple kinematical testing procedures based on feasibility criteria can be conducted on a pixel basis to determine which failure mechanisms are likely to occur at particular terrain locations. In combination with hydraulic and strength data on geological discontinuities, scenario-based rock slope stability evaluations can be performed. For conceptual investigations on rock slope failure processes, a GIS-based specification tool for a 2-D distinct element code (UDEC) was designed to operate with the GIS-encoded spatially distributed rock slope data. The concepts of the proposed methodology for rock slope hazard assessments are demonstrated at three different test sites in Germany.     

中国北方风蚀区风速变化时空特征分析

利用北方风蚀区155个气象站点1971-2015年平均风速数据,采用气候趋势分析、空间插值和小波分析等方法分析北方风蚀区平均风速的时空变化趋势。结果表明：近45 a来,北方风蚀区年平均风速为2.70 m·s^-1,呈明显减小趋势,其递减速率为0.017 m·s^-1·a^-1（α=0.001）,1980s风速减小最快,1990s减小最缓慢,2010s风速出现增大趋势;我国北方风蚀区四季的平均风速均呈现下降趋势,下降速度春季>夏季>秋季>冬季（α=0.001）,不同年代不同季节风速变化存在较大差异,2010s除春季外其他季节风速均呈现增大趋势;空间分布上显示,风速变化幅度空间分布差异明显,北方风蚀区内的新疆西北部和东南部、青海、内蒙古中部和东北部、黑龙江以及吉林为风速降低较快的区域,甘肃东南部、宁夏、陕西和山西北部以及新疆的东北部和西部等地区是风速降低不明显的区域。春季和夏季风速降低较快的区域面积扩大,冬季和秋季风速降低较缓的区域扩大;平均风速存在多时间尺度的周期性结构特征,28 a时间尺度左右为风速变化的主周期,平均变化周期为18 a。     

国外脆弱性理论模型与评估框架研究评述

目前,脆弱性研究作为一种新的研究范式已经在多学科领域中得到了广泛应用,并取得了丰硕成果.但随着研究的深入,学者们发现,由于学科背景及研究视角的差异性,不同研究领域之间存在着结论不兼容和工作重复等问题,迫切需要一个可行的理论模型与评估框架来整合其理论和实践的研究.在对脆弱性概念内涵的发展演变过程分析的基础上,对国外多学科领域中的脆弱性理论模型及评估框架进行了对比研究和评述.研究发现:脆弱性概念的泛化是制约通用脆弱性理论模型与评估框架的关键因素,结合未来脆弱性研究的发展方向,对整合的脆弱性理论模型与评估框架提出了4个方面的要求,即多时空尺度特征、多重扰动特征、耦合系统特征和人文特征.     

中国东部6区域近1000年干湿序列的重建和气候跃变分析

本文利用我国的历史气候记载，为东部6区域重建了最近1033年的时间分辨率为1年的区域于湿气候序列，讨论其可靠性，并分析其变化的准周期性和跃变特征。跃变分析采用移动t检验方法，分析各区域干湿气候的世纪尺度和10～20年尺度的跃变现象，辨识跃变信号的参考年代，指出北方各区域的跃变趋势相同，但有时与长江下游地区相反，以及跃变信号在寒冷气候背景下较多出现等特点。     

Time-Varying Multifractal Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Loaded Coal Electromagnetic Radiation

Dynamic collapses of deeply mined coal rocks are severe threats to miners. To predict the collapses more accurately using electromagnetic radiation (EMR), we investigate the time-varying multifractal characteristics and formation mechanism of EMR induced by underground coal mining. A series of uniaxial compression and multi-stage loading experiments with coal samples of different mechanical properties were carried out. The EMR signals during their damage evolution were monitored in real-time; the inherent law of EMR time series was analyzed by fractal theory. The results show that the time-varying multifractal characteristics of EMR are determined by damage evolutions process, the dissipated energy caused by damage evolutions such as crack propagation, fractal sliding and shearing can be regard as the fingerprint of various EMR micro-mechanics. Based on the Irreversible thermodynamics and damage mechanics, we introduced the damage internal variable, constructed the dissipative potential function and established the coupled model of the EMR and the dissipative energy, which revealed the nature of dynamic nonlinear characteristics of EMR. Dynamic multifractal spectrum is the objective response of EMR signals, thus it can be used to evaluate the coal deformation and fracture process.     

Observations of estuarine circulation and solitary internal waves in a highly energetic tidal channel

Despite vigorous tidal and wind mixing, observations in an estuarine tidal inlet in the Wadden Sea show that during part of the tidal cycle, vertical stratification and internal waves may still develop. Acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and conductivity, temperature, depth observations, collected over the past 6 years at 13 h anchor stations (ASs), reveal that these occur especially during slack tide, when there is little wind and large freshwater discharge from nearby Lake IJssel. Measurements with a moored ADCP show that in the same tidal phase, strong cross-channel circulation develops, which may suddenly reverse circulation sense due to passing density fronts. In the vertically stratified phase that follows after the front passage, propagating mode-one solitary internal waves are observed. These are resonantly generated during decelerating tidal ebb currents when the (shear) flow passes a transcritical regime (Froude number equal to 1). A combination of photographs (including one from the International Space Station), bathymetric data, and ASs data leads to the discovery of yet another source of internal waves in this area, produced during slackening tide by propagating lee waves that develop over a deep trench. We suggest that both the cross-channel circulation as well as the (solitary) internal waves may locally be of importance for the (re)distribution and transport of sediments and nutrients and may influence tidally averaged transports.     

Impact of Cloud Microphysical Processes on the Simulation of Typhoon Rananim near Shore. Part II: Typhoon Intensity and Track

The impact of cloud microphysical processes on the simulated intensity and track of Typhoon Rananim is discussed and analyzed in the second part of this study. The results indicate that when the cooling effect due to evaporation of rain water is excluded, the simulated 36-h maximum surface wind speed of Typhoon Rananim is about 7 m s⁻¹ greater than that from all other experiments; however, the typhoon landfall location has the biggest bias of about 150 km against the control experiment. The simulated strong outer rainbands and the vertical shear of the environmental flow are unfavorable for the deepening and maintenance of the typhoon and result in its intensity loss near the landfall. It is the cloud microphysical processes that strengthen and create the outer spiral rainbands, which then increase the local convergence away from the typhoon center and prevent more moisture and energy transport to the inner core of the typhoon. The developed outer rainbands are supposed to bring dry and cold air mass from the middle troposphere to the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The other branch of the cold airflow comes from the evaporation of rain water itself in the PBL while the droplets are falling. Thus, the cut-off of the warm and moist air to the inner core and the invasion of cold and dry air to the eyewall region are expected to bring about the intensity reduction of the modeled typhoon. Therefore, the deepening and maintenance of Typhoon Rananim during its landing are better simulated through the reduction of these two kinds of model errors.     

Delphi实现的集约化市县预报服务平台

以琼海市预报服务平台为例,阐述delphi语言在气象业务中的具体应用.     

琼东南盆地华光凹陷天然气水合物稳定带厚度的影响因素

为了探讨琼东南盆地华光凹陷海底天然气水合物稳定带的分布规律,定量研究了静水压力、底水温度、地温梯度和气源组分对水合物稳定带的影响程度。在此基础上,分析了华光凹陷现今甲烷水合物稳定带的厚度分布。最后,综合各因素的历史演化过程,初步探讨了华光凹陷1.05 Ma BP以来天然气水合物稳定带的演化。结果表明:(1)气源组分和海底温度的变化对研究区内水合物稳定带的影响较大;水合物稳定带厚度与海底温度呈良好的线性负相关性。(2)水深超过600 m的海域具备形成天然气水合物的温压条件;超过600 m水深的海域水合物稳定带厚度大部分超过 100 m,其中西北部稳定带的最大厚度超过300 m,是有利的水合物勘探区。(3)华光凹陷1.05 Ma BP以来天然气水合物稳定带厚度经历了快速增厚–窄幅变化–快速减薄和恢复的过程。麻坑群与水合物稳定变化敏感区在空间上具有较好的叠合关系。结合前人的研究成果,推测其形成与天然气水合物的分解释放有关。