Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.     

Nature of the Ore-Forming Fluid at the Quaternary Noya Gold Deposit in Kyushu,Japan

We discuss the nature of the ore-forming hydrothermal fluid in the Noya gold-bearing calcite-quartz-adularia veins of central Kyushu, Japan on the basis of oxygen, carbon, and strontium isotope ratios, and aqueous speciation calculations for the present-day geothermal fluid. The isotopic values of the Noya ore-forming fluid were estimated to be −6.5‰ for δ¹³C and −7.5‰ for δ¹⁸O. The oxygen isotopic equilibrium temperatures for vein calcite are more than 180°C at the bottom of the Noya mineralization zone, and decrease with increasing elevation. As the temperature decreased, the dominant carbon species in the fluid changed from H₂CO₃ to HCO₃^- at about 120°C. The equilibrium temperatures for vein quartz are consistent with the calcite calculations. The carbon and oxygen isotope trends of the Noya vein calcite and the isotope ratios of strontium suggest that the fluids that precipitated the Noya veins were controlled by an andesite-dominated geology. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns for the white-colored veins from wells 51-WT-1 and 51-WT-2 displayed a light REE-rich pattern with positive Eu anomalies, suggesting the existence of a reducing environment for the fluid. The pyrite-rich gray-colored veins and a silicified rock from well 51-WT-2 showed higher REE concentrations than did the white veins. Altered host andesitic rocks have similar REE patterns to that of the silicified rock, and have higher REE contents than the others in the drill cores. Aqueous speciation calculations showed that the fluid in the hydrothermal reservoir is currently in muscovite stability. The fluid at the ore-mineralization stage may have contained more potassium or have had a higher pH, so that adularia precipitated with calcite and quartz, as well as gold. Fluid boiling at depth in the system produced the gold-bearing calcite-quartz-adularia veins.     

Families of periodic orbits in Hill’s problem with solar radiation pressure: application to Hayabusa 2

This work studies periodic solutions applicable, as an extended phase, to the JAXA asteroid rendezvous mission Hayabusa 2 when it is close to target asteroid 1999 JU3. The motion of a spacecraft close to a small asteroid can be approximated with the equations of Hill’s problem modified to account for the strong solar radiation pressure. The identification of families of periodic solutions in such systems is just starting and the field is largely unexplored. We find several periodic orbits using a grid search, then apply numerical continuation and bifurcation theory to a subset of these to explore the changes in the orbit families when the orbital energy is varied. This analysis gives information on their stability and bifurcations. We then compare the various families on the basis of the restrictions and requirements of the specific mission considered, such as the pointing of the solar panels and instruments. We also use information about their resilience against parameter errors and their ground tracks to identify one particularly promising type of solution.     

Mechanism for the instability of slopes composed of granular materials

The mechanism of instability of slopes composed of granular materials was examined through a tilting-box experiment using an assembly of aluminium rods and direct shear tests. A detailed observation of the experiment and the simple physical model led to the following conclusion. Avalanching of granular materials is triggered by rotation of rods at the slope surface. The force inducing the rotation was caused by the weight of the particles transmitted through contact points. Therefore, the mechanism of avalanching of granular materials was not comparable to the shear mechanism that has been considered to be responsible for the instability of slopes made of granular materials. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The geochemical and petrological characteristics of prenatal caldera volcano: a case of the newly formed small dacitic caldera,Hijiori, Northeast Japan

Evaluating the magma depth and its physical properties is critical to conduct a better geophysical assessment of magma chambers of caldera volcanoes that may potentially cause future volcanic hazards. To understand pre-eruptive conditions of a magma chamber before its first appearance at the surface, this paper describes the case of Hijiori caldera volcano in northeastern Japan, which emerged approximately 12,000 years ago at a place where no volcano ever existed. We estimated the depth, density, bulk modulus, vesicularity, crystal content, and bulk H\(_2\)O content of the magma chamber using petrographic interpretations, bulk and microchemical compositions, and thermodynamic calculations. The chemical mass balance calculations and thermodynamic modeling of the erupted magmas indicate that the upper portion of the Hijiori magmatic plumbing system was located at depths between 2 and 4 km, and had the following characteristics: (1) pre-eruptive temperature: about 780 \(^{\circ }\)C; (2) bulk magma composition: 66 ± 1.5 wt% SiO\(_{2}\); (3) bulk magmatic H\(_2\)O: approximately 2.5 wt%, and variable characteristics that depend on depth; (4) crystal content: \(\le\)57 vol%; (5) bulk modulus of magma: 0.1–0.8 GPa; (6) magma density: 1.8–2.3 g/cm³; and (7) amount of excess magmatic H\(_2\)O: 11–32 vol% or 48–81 mol%. The range of melt water contents found in quartz-hosted melt inclusions (2–9 wt%) suggests the range of depth phenocrysts growth to be wide (2\(\sim\)13 km). Our data suggest the presence of a vertically elongated magma chamber whose top is nearly solidified but highly vesiculated; this chamber has probably grown and re-mobilized by repeated injections of a small amount of hot dacitic magma originated from the depth.     

Phytoplankton dynamics in Lake Biwa during the 20th century: complex responses to climate variation and changes in nutrient status

We examined algal remains and fossil pigments in ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment cores from Lake Biwa to explore historical changes in the phytoplankton community of the lake over the past 100 years and to identify environmental factors that caused those changes. Fluxes of fossil pigments and algal remains were very low before the 1960s, but increased through the 1960s and 1970s, indicating that the lake had eutrophied in the 20 years since 1960. After 1980, however, fluxes of all fossil pigments and algal remains decreased or stabilized. Redundancy analysis with meteorological and limnological variables explained more than 70% of the variation of these fluxes and showed that the decrease in fluxes of most algal taxa that occurred in the 1980s was related to changes in meteorological variables such as wind velocity, rather than changes in the lake’s trophic state. Sedimentary records of algal remains also revealed that Aulacoseira nipponica, an endemic diatom species that grows in winter, decreased dramatically after 1980, while Fragilaria crotonensis, a cosmopolitan spring diatom species, became dominant. Replacement of one dominant diatom species by another could not be explained simply by changes in the lake trophic state, but was reasonably strongly related with an increase in winter water temperature. These results suggest that the phytoplankton community in Lake Biwa was influenced by changes in local environmental conditions (nutrient loading) through the 1960s and 1970s, but more so by regional (meteorological) and global (climate warming) factors since 1980.     

Analytical study of performance evaluation for seismic retrofitting of reinforced concrete building using 3D dynamic nonlinear finite element analysis

This paper presents three-dimensional fi nite element (FE) analyses of an all-frame model of a three-story reinforced concrete (RC) building damaged in the 1999 Taiwan Chi-Chi Earthquake. Non-structural brick walls of the building acted as a seismic resistant element although their contributions were neglected in the design. Hence, the entire structure of a typical frame was modeled and static and dynamic nonlinear analyses were conducted to evaluate the contributions of the brick walls. However, the results of the analyses were considerably overestimated due to coarse mesh discretizations, which were unavoidable due to limited computer resources. This study corrects the overestimations by modifying (1) the tensile strengths and (2) shear stiffness reduction factors of concrete and brick. The results indicate that brick walls improve frame strength although shear failures are caused in columns shortened by spandrel walls. Then, the effectiveness of three types of seismic retrofi ts is evaluated. The maximum drift of the firstoor is reduced by 89.3%, 94.8%, and 27.5% by Steel-confi ned, Full-RC, and Full-brick models, respectively. Finally, feasibility analyses of models with soils were conducted. The analyses indicated that the soils elongate the natural period of building models although no signifi cant differences were observed.     

Crustal transect from the North Atlantic Knipovich Ridge to the Svalbard Margin west of Hornsund

The crustal structure along a 312 km transect, stretching from the axial mountains of the North Atlantic Knipovich Ridge to the continental shelf of Svalbard, has been obtained using seismic reflection data and wide angle OBS data. The resulting seismic V_p and V_s models are further constrained by a 2-D-gravity model. The principal objective of this study is to describe and resolve the physical and compositional properties of the crust in order to understand the processes and creation of oceanic crust in this extremely slow-spreading counterpart of the North Atlantic Ridge Systems. V_p is estimated to be 3.50–6.05 km/s for the upper oceanic crust (oceanic layer 2), with a marked increase away from the ridge. The measured V_p of 6.55–6.95 km/s for oceanic layer 3A and 7.10–7.25 km/s for layer 3B, both with a V_p/V_s ratio of 1.81, except for slightly higher values at the ridge axis, does not allow a clear distinction between gabbro and mantle-derived peridotite (10–40% serpentized). The thickness of the oceanic crust varies a lot along the transect from the minimum of 5.6 km to a maximum of 8.1 km. The mean thickness of 6.7 km for the oceanic crust is well above the average thickness for slow-spreading ridges (<10 mm/year half-spreading rate). The areas of increased thickness could be explained by large magma production-rates found in the zones of axial highs at the ridge axis, which also have generated the off-axial highs adjacent the ridge. We suggest that these axial and off-axial highs along the ridge control the lithological composition of the oceanic crust. This approach suggests normal gabbroic oceanic crust to be found in the areas bound by the active magma segments (the axial and off-axial highs) and mantle-derived peridotite outside these zone.     

Observational Study on the Downward Solar Radiation at the Sea Surface in the Western Pacific

In situ observation of downward solar radiation in the Western Pacific were carried out with voluntary merchant ships for five years from autumn 1990 through autumn 1995. Daily means of the short wave radiation were computed from the observed solar radiation. Then, the effects of shadows of the ship's superstructures on the observed radiation were corrected if needed. A 5-year average of short wave radiation along the main sea-lanes in the Western Pacific was calculated based on the observed daily mean solar radiation. Maximum values of 270–280 Wm^–2 are found around 15°–20°N in May and June, while those of 290 Wm^–2 are observed south of 18°S in November and December along the lanes. Small annual variations are found in the equatorial region. Annual mean values at the equator are about 230 Wm^–2 between New Guinea and Indonesia, and 200 Wm^–2 east of New Guinea. The 5-year average of short wave radiation was compared with the climatologies given in previous studies. We have concluded that some of results of previous studies are significantly underestimated.     

Role of basement in epithermal deposits: The Kushikino and Hishikari gold deposits, southwestern Japan

The magma–ore deposit relationship of most low-sulfidation epithermal ore deposits is still unclear, partly because many stable isotopic studies of such deposits have indicated the predominance of meteoric waters within hydrothermal fluids. However, it is certainly true that hydrothermal systems are ultimately driven by magmatic intrusions, and epithermal gold deposits might therefore be produced by magmatic activity even in deposits having has no obvious links to a magma. We re-examine the genesis of two typical low-sulfidation epithermal gold deposits, the Kushikino and Hishikari deposits, using structural simulations and isotope data.Many epithermal gold deposits including the Kushikino and Hishikari deposits have been discovered in Kyushu, southwestern Japan. The Kushikino deposit comprises fissure-filling veins within Neogene andesitic volcanics that overlie unconformably Cretaceous sedimentary basement. The veins consist of gold- and silver-bearing quartz and calcite with minor amounts of adularia, sericite and sulfides. Although carbon and oxygen isotopic data for the veins indicate a meteoric origin of the ore fluid, finite element simulations suggest that the vein system might have formed in direct response to magma intrusion. In particular, geophysical data suggest that intruding magma has uplifted the basement rocks, thereby producing fractures and veins and a positive Bouguer anomaly, and providing the heat necessary to drive an ore-forming hydrothermal system.The second component of this study has been to investigate the nature and evolution of the Kushikino and Hishikari epithermal systems. Isotope data document the geochemical evolution of the hydrothermal fluids. We conclude that the existence of sedimentary basement rocks at depth might have affected the strontium and carbon isotopic ratios of the Kushikino and Hishikari ore fluids. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and δ¹³C–δ¹⁸O trend reveal that major ore veins in the Hishikari deposit can be distinguished from shallow barren veins. It was suggested isotopically that fluids responsible for the barren veins in nearby shallow and barren circulation systems were only controlled by the shallow host rocks. Such multi-isotope systematics provide a powerful tool with which to determine the center of hydrothermal activity and thereby document the evolution of hydrothermal fluids.