Factors controlling the interannual variations of MJO intensity

The interannual variations of intensity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter are investigated by using the observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the reanalysis data of ECMWF and NCEP. The standard deviation of 20-80-day filtered OLR anomaly is used to measure the MJO intensity. The dominant spatial structure of the interannual variability is revealed by an EOF analysis of the MJO intensity field. It is found that the leading mode is associated with eastern Pacific type ENSO, whereas the second mode is related to central Pacific type ENSO. A simple atmospheric model is used to investigate the relative roles of background moisture and wind changes in affecting the overall strength of MJO. The numerical experiments indicate that the background moisture effect is dominant while the background wind change has a minor effect.     

气候模式中云的垂直重叠及其辐射传输问题研究进展

概述了全球气候模式中云的垂直重叠的处理方法及其辐射物理过程的最新研究进展。从云垂直重叠模型的构造、模型在气候模式中的实现方式,得到与观测一致的云重叠结构所采用的数据和方法、重叠云的辐射传输等方面,给出了针对这一国际研究难点问题的最新研究进展。关于气候模式中云的垂直重叠问题的研究至今已取得了许多成果,表现在:重叠模型上有了更为科学的描述形式(如指数衰减重叠);重叠云的辐射传输也有了更快速的处理方法(如蒙特卡洛独立柱近似)并被广泛应用;连续的三维云遥感观测(如CloudSat/CALIPSO)和云分辨尺度的三维云模式的发展为在气候模式中精确描述云的垂直结构提供了丰富的观测资料和模式数据。但是,气候模式中现有的云重叠结构处理及其辐射传输方法还远不够完善,仍然存在很多没有解决的问题需要在未来进行探索。     

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Niña years with a similar sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.     

Recent significant tornadoes in China

正1.Introduction Compared with the United States,whose annual number of tornadoes can exceed 1000,the average number of tornadoes per year in China over the past half a century is estimated to be fewer than 100(Fan and Yu,2015),even though both countries are located in a similar latitudinal zone of the Northern Hemisphere.The annual average recorded number of F1(Fujita scale)or EF1(enhanced Fujita scale)intensity or higher tornadoes in China between 1961 and 2010 is about     

A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

Erratum to: Climate change projections over India by a downscaling approach using PRECIS

The author “Bhaski Bhaskaran” and his affiliation “Fujitsu Laboratory of Europe, Middlesex, UK” should be replaced by “Balakrishnan Bhaskaran”, “Fujitsu Laboratories of Europe Limited, Hayes Park, Middlesex, UK”, respectively.The corrected name and affiliation are shown in this erratum.     

Comparison of prediction performance using statistical postprocessing methods

As the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held in Pyeongchang, both general weather information on Pyeongchang and specific weather information on this region, which can affect game operation and athletic performance, are required. An ensemble prediction system has been applied to provide more accurate weather information, but it has bias and dispersion due to the limitations and uncertainty of its model. In this study, homogeneous and nonhomogeneous regression models as well as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) were used to reduce the bias and dispersion existing in ensemble prediction and to provide probabilistic forecast. Prior to applying the prediction methods, reliability of the ensemble forecasts was tested by using a rank histogram and a residualquantile-quantile plot to identify the ensemble forecasts and the corresponding verifications. The ensemble forecasts had a consistent positive bias, indicating over-forecasting, and were under-dispersed. To correct such biases, statistical post-processing methods were applied using fixed and sliding windows. The prediction skills of methods were compared by using the mean absolute error, root mean square error, continuous ranked probability score, and continuous ranked probability skill score. Under the fixed window, BMA exhibited better prediction skill than the other methods in most observation station. Under the sliding window, on the other hand, homogeneous and non-homogeneous regression models with positive regression coefficients exhibited better prediction skill than BMA. In particular, the homogeneous regression model with positive regression coefficients exhibited the best prediction skill.     

Assessment of Kalpana-1 Rainfall Product over Indian Meteorological Sub-Divisions During the Summer Monsoon Season

In this paper, Kalpana-1 derived INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) rainfall estimates are compared with two multisatellite rainfall products namely, TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-3B42 and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and India Meteorological Department (IMD) surface rain gauge (SRG)-based rainfall at meteorological sub-divisional scale over India. The performance of the summer monsoon rainfall of 2013 over Indian meteorological sub-divisions is assessed at different temporal scales. Comparison of daily accumulated rainfall over India from IMSRA shows a linear correlation of 0.72 with TMPA-3B42 and 0.70 with GSMaP estimates. IMSRA is capable to pick up daily rainfall variability over the monsoon trough region as compared to TMPA-3B42 and GSMaP products, but underestimates moderate to heavy rainfall events. Satellite-derived rainfall maps at meteorological sub-divisional scales are in reasonably good agreement with IMD-SRG based rainfall maps with some exceptions. However, IMSRA performs better than GSMaP product at meteorological sub-divisional scale and comparable with TMPA data. All the satellite-derived rainfall products underestimate orographic rainfall along the west coast, the Himalayan foothills and over the northeast India and overestimate rainfall over the southeast peninsular India. Overall results suggest that IMSRA estimates have potential for monsoon rainfall monitoring over the Indian meteorological sub-divisions and can be used for various hydro-meteorological applications.     

Assessing Performance of Tomo-SAR and Backscattering Coefficient for Hemi-Boreal Forest Aboveground Biomass Estimation

Tomo-SAR technique has been used for hemi-boreal forest height and further forest biomass estimation through allometric equation. Backscattering coefficient especially in longer wavelength (L- or P-band) is thought as a useful parameter for hemi-boreal forest biomass retrieval. The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of vertical backscattering power and backscattering coefficient for hemi-boreal forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation with airborne P-band data. The test site locates in southern Sweden called Remningstorp test site, and the in-situ forest AGB ranges from 14 t/ha to 245 t/ha at stand level. Multi-baseline P-band Pol-InSAR data in repeat-path mode collected during March and May in 2007 at Remningstorp test site was used. We found that the correlation coefficient (R) between backscattering coefficient of P-band HH polarization and the in-situ forest biomass reached 0.87. The R for P-band VV backscattering power at 5 m is 0.71 and 10 m is 0.72. Backscattering coefficient in HH polarization and vertical backscattering power at 5 m and 10 m were applied to construct a model for hemi-boreal forest AGB estimation by backward step-wise regression and cross-validation approach. The results showed that the estimated forest AGB ranges from 19 to 240 t/ha, and the constructed model obtained a higher R and smaller RMSE, the value of R is 0.91, RMSE is 30.43 t/ha at Remningstorp test site.     

Practical Application of 3D Visualization Using Geotechnical Database: A Case Study Karsiyaka (Izmir) Settlement Area (Turkey)

3D geographic information system software’s (GIS) are widely used in engineering geology applications. This study was performed in the Karsiyaka settlement area for the preparation of engineering geological maps and evaluation of geological structures. Firstly, topographic maps digitized with Arcview GIS 3.2. Engineering geological maps were prepared using site works and digitized with the Rockworks 2006 programme and later stored in GIS-based computer systems. 3D modelling analysis and assessment using a geotechnical database is important to assist decision-making for land use and metro subway line planning, construction site selection, selection of water sources, etc. In this respect, the sub-surface of the study area is fully 3D visualized and useful soil class zonation maps for different depths maps are performed to be used in further studies. At last, after research at this site, the construction applications of Karsiyaka have multiplied.