2012年春季绥化市2次较大降水天气分析

本文针对2012年3月16日与3月29日2次较大的降水天气,对比分析了其大尺度的天气形势及相关物理量。分析表明,这2次过程在高空都存在低涡系统,低涡前部西南气流为降水提供了水汽输送,地面都有较强的低压中心维持。从涡度、垂直速度、水汽通量散度及相对湿度的垂直时间剖面看,在2次降水过程的时段内整层均表现为大面积的正涡度区,都有很强的上升运动,水汽输送带都处于中低层,只是相对湿度大值区高度不同。     

长治高温气候特征及分析预报

通过对长治市1977年-2004年6月-8月出现≥35℃的高温天气的地理分布特征、时间和强度等统计研究,给出了高温天气的气候背景。从500hPa高空形势分析,归纳出造成高温天气的四种主要环流形势（两槽一脊型、纬向环流型、大陆暖高型、副高控制型）;分析了风、云、降水等气象要素与高温天气的内在联系。通过850hPa高温预报指标站的选取及数值预报产品的统计分析,给出了高温天气的综合性预报模型。     

VALIDATION OF NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED BY A HYBRID WRF/CALMET MODELING SYSTEM OVER A COASTAL ISLAND WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN

The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(California Meteorological Model,CALMET) with 100-m horizontal spacing was driven with outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to obtain near-surface winds for the 1-year period from 12 September 2003 to 11 September 2004.Results were compared with wind observations at four sites.Traditional statistical scores,including correlation coefficients,standard deviations(SDs) and mean absolute errors(MAEs),indicate that the wind estimates from the WRF/CALMET modeling system are produced reasonably well.The correlation coefficients are relatively large,ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for the zonal wind component and from 0.75 to 0.85 for the meridional wind component.MAEs for wind speed range from 1.5 to 2.0 m s-1 at 10 meters above ground level(AGL) and from 2.0 to 2.5 m s-1 at 60 m AGL.MAEs for wind direction range from 30 to 40 degrees at both levels.A spectral decomposition of the time series of wind speed shows positive impacts of CALMET in improving the mesoscale winds.Moreover,combining the CALMET model with WRF significantly improves the spatial variability of the simulated wind fields.It can be concluded that the WRF/CALMET modeling system is capable of providing a detailed near-surface wind field,but the physics in the diagnostic CALMET model needs to be further improved.     

高空报文传输常见问题及处理方法

对全国三年来高空传输报文情况进行分析,指出报文传输过程中常见出错环节及问题,提出处理方法及应对措施,为高空气象业务观测员提供实用参考经验,确保报文传输的准确性和时效性,达到提高高空气象业务质量的目的。     

监控视频中目标车辆速度被动式测量方法研究

对事先没有安置测速装置,事后仅通过监控视频进行处理的目标车辆速度被动式测量的方法进行相关研究。阐述被动式目标车辆速度测量的概念、基本原理;视频画面中点、线、面之间的关系;被动式目标车辆速度测量时方向与标定点的选择;不同监控点之间目标车辆的平均速度测量和同一监控点中目标车辆速度测量的方法等。     

Two-step method for the determination of the differential code biases of COMPASS satellites

The differential code bias (DCB) in satellites of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) should be precisely corrected when designing certain applications, such as ionospheric remote sensing, precise point positioning, and time transfer. In the case of COMPASS system, the data used for estimating DCB are currently only available from a very limited number of global monitoring stations. However, the current GPS/GLONASS satellite DCB estimation methods generally require a large amount of geographically well-distributed data for modeling the global ionospheric vertical total electron content (TEC) and are not particularly suitable for current COMPASS use. Moreover, some satellites with unstable DCB (i.e., relatively large scatter) may affect other satellite DCB estimates through the zero-mean reference that is currently imposed on all satellites. In order to overcome the inadequacy of data sources and to reduce the impact of unstable DCB, a new approach, designated IGGDCB, is developed for COMPASS satellite DCB determination. IGG stands for the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, which is located in Wuhan, China. In IGGDCB, the ionospheric vertical TEC of each individual station is independently modeled by a generalized triangular series function, and the satellite DCB reference is selected using an iterative DCB elimination process. By comparing GPS satellite DCB estimates calculated by the IGGDCB approach based on only a handful (e.g., seven) of tracking stations against that calculated by the currently existing methods based on hundreds of tracking stations, we are able to demonstrate that the accuracies of the IGGDCB-based DCB estimates perform at the level of about 0.13 and 0.10?ns during periods of high (2001) and low (2009) solar activity, respectively. The iterative method for DCB reference selection is verified by statistical tests that take into account the day-to-day scatter and the duration that the satellites have spent in orbit. The results show that the impact of satellites with unstable DCB can be considerably reduced using the IGGDCB method. It is also confirmed that IGGDCB is not only specifically valid for COMPASS but also for all other GNSS.     

基于用户偏好的多维地理信息服务质量评价模型

为了解决目前地理信息服务质量量化评价的问题,构建了一种基于用户偏好的多维地理信息服务质量评价模型。扩展通用服务质量属性,构建了多维地理信息服务质量模型;在多维地理信息服务质量模型的基础上加入用户偏好,构建了基于用户偏好的多维地理信息服务质量评价模型;实现了基于用户偏好的QoS权重计算,并给出了服务QoS综合值的计算方法。最后给出了基于用户偏好的多维地理信息服务质量评价实例。     

网格地理信息服务生命周期管理研究

为了实现网格地理信息服务系统中服务资源的高效享用和可控管理,研究网格地理信息服务生命周期管理问题。从服务资源自身的生命周期、服务资源在注册中心中的生命周期和服务资源在虚拟组织中的生命周期三方面出发研究服务资源的生命周期管理问题。最后研究基于盟主的虚拟组织生命周期管理问题。     

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

This study is motivated by an interest in obtaining a new automated classification scheme of daily circulation types suitable for use throughout Europe. The classification scheme is performed on 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies (NCEP Reanalysis data, 2.5°×2.5°). Nine grid points represent the study area. Five anticyclonic types (Anw, Ane, A, Asw and Ase) and seven cyclonic types (C, Cnnw, Cwnw, Cwsw, Cssw, Cse, Cne) are defined. Each of the circulation types has a distinct underlying synoptic pattern that produces the expected type and direction of flow over the study area. The classification scheme is applied to three different case studies in the Mediterranean Basin: Greece, Cyprus and central Italy. The precipitation percentage of the cyclonic type and the mean seasonal correlation coefficients for all circulation types are the two criteria used to evaluate the performance of the classification scheme. The ability of the HadAM3P general circulation model to reproduce the mean pattern and frequency of circulation types at the 500 hPa level in comparison to the NCEP dataset for the period 1960–1990 is also evaluated. The percentage of rainfall that corresponds to the cyclonic circulation types is greater than 85% for the three study regions. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients for the three classifications are very encouraging, for nearly all days of the study period. Compared to observations, the GCM is able to capture the mean patterns but not able to replicate exactly the observed variability of the circulation types over the three study regions.     

区域风能资源评价分析的动力降尺度研究

不同于以往的统计风能评估方法,本研究将动力降尺度方法应用到江苏省的风能评价分析中。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料与江苏省65个地面气象观测站1971～2000年的观测资料,建立了动力降尺度区域气候模式MM5V3的初始场和边界条件,用较高分辨率（水平分辨率为5 km）评估了江苏省60 m高度的风能分布,分析了动力降尺度方法在区域风能资源评估中的有效应用。结果表明,江苏省风能资源由东部沿海向西部内陆递减,以西连岛为代表的东部沿海风能资源最丰富,其次为长江三角洲地区,太湖、洪泽湖及高邮湖地区的风能资源也比较丰富,徐州市与南京市的风能资源最贫乏。分析表明,动力降尺度方法能够用较高分辨率模拟局地环流和地面风的主要分布特征,可以作为区域风能资源评价分析的有效手段。