试论我国城市发展方针

在执行重重工业的发展战略和城乡分割体制的计划经济背景下,我国制定了“控制大城市规模,合理发展中等城市,积极发展小城市”的城市建设方针。但是分析表明,这一方针不能适应市场经济和对外开放形势的需要,也不符合我国人多地少、农村剩余劳动力多的国情,必须调整现有的城市发展方针,选择适宜的城市化发展道路。因此,本文就适度发展大中城市,提高城市现代化水平;加速乡村城市化,积极合理发展小城镇;以及根据不同地区的具体情况,因地制宜地指定城市化途径等方面作了探讨。     

Estimation of statistical parameters for censored lognormal hydraulic conductivity measurements

Field tests of hydraulic conductivity (e.g., injection test, pumping test, etc.) in low permeability formations are subject to censoring due to the detection limit of the instruments used. An iterative method of estimating the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data with a presumed log-normal distribution function is presented. This method accounts for the data that are actually below the lower detection limit (called truncated data) and thus gives distribution parameters that are more representative for the underlying distribution. The proposed method is then tested on two simulated normally distributed random datasets having different variances. The results show that the means and variances estimated by the proposed method are very accurate. Finally, the method is used to estimate the mean and variance of hydraulic conductivity data from single hole water injection tests in a fractured geological formation.     

铁砚磨穿指蘸墨 不用扬鞭自奋蹄——志《山西地震》创刊20周年

回顾了《山西地震》创刊20年的历史,叙述了《山西地震》.编辑部在自身建设、执行科技期刊编排标准、为防震减灾事业默默奉献的情况,总结了经验、教训,指出了今后努力的方向.     

随钻测录井地质导向二维分解实时绘图方法

根据随钻测录井实时地质导向和大斜度、水平井评价成图技术需求，针对传统绘图方法存在的弊端，提出了将测录井信息、井眼轨迹和地质模型进行二维分解的实时绘图方法。针对二维分解绘图方法绘图时空复杂度较高的问题，给出了不同事件驱动下的局部实时计算和拷屏重绘算法，控制了对CPU和内存的消耗、提高了绘图效率，消除了实时绘图的闪烁和卡顿现象。应用实例表明，二维分解实时绘图方法能够实现大尺度随钻测录井地质导向图形的流畅、无卡顿实时绘图，可提高大斜度、水平井储层模型评价的刻画精度和时效。     

科尔沁沙地土地利用与耕作方式对土壤风蚀的影响

土壤风蚀造成的直接生态后果是土地资源的退化。在春播前两次沙尘暴事件中,对科尔沁沙地几种具有代表性的土地类型的土壤风蚀量及土壤特性进行了野外测定、分析,结果表明:(1)在同一沙尘暴天气下,由于土地利用和耕作方式的不同,土壤风蚀量存在着差异,新垦农地和翻耕农地的风蚀量显著高于未垦草地、免耕农地和麻黄地;免耕农地则与未垦草地的风蚀量相差不大,风蚀危害较轻;麻黄地几乎不受风蚀侵害。新垦农地、翻耕农地、免耕农地、未垦草地、麻黄地两次观测的土壤风蚀量平均值依次为24.59、15.60、2.26、1.46和0.22 g/h.cm2。(2)基于土壤特性计算的土壤退化指数结果表明,新垦农地和翻耕农地发生了较为严重的退化。     

青海热水柴达尔井田构造组合型式

柴达尔井田构造可分为压缩机制的推覆构造与伸展机制的断块体两类。南北F0为逆冲型的控制性边界断裂，井田内部一系列小型弧形构造为逆掩型浅层断裂；F1、F2、F17，是拉伸作用下的同沉积正断层，切断煤系基底T3地层。其动力机制为印度板块向北推移、西伯利亚板块向南运移发生对挤，脆一韧性剪切变形导致了井用现有的构造组合形式。     

Spectral Simulation and Conditioning to Local Continuity Trends in Geologic Modeling

Spectral simulation has gained application in building geologic models due to the advantage of better honoring the spatial continuity of petrophysical properties, such as reservoir porosity and shale volume. Distinct from sequential simulation methods, spectral simulation is a global algorithm in the sense that a global density spectrum is calculated once and the inverse Fourier transform is performed on the Fourier coefficient also only once to generate a simulation realization. The generated realizations honor the spatial continuity structure globally over the whole field instead of only within a search neighborhood, as with sequential simulation algorithms. However, the disadvantage of global spectral simulation is that it traditionally cannot account for the local information such as the local continuity trends, which are often observed in reservoirs and hence are important to be accounted for in geologic models. This disadvantage has limited wider application of spectral simulation in building geologic models. In this paper, we present ways of conditioning geologic models to the relevant local information. To account for the local continuity trends, we first scale different frequency components of the original model with local-amplitude spectrum ratios that are specific to the local trend. The sum of these scaled frequency components renders a new model that displays the desired local continuity trend. The implementation details of this new method are discussed and examples are provided to illustrate the algorithm.     

Early Estimation of Seismic Hazard for Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

A shakemap system providing rapid estimates of strong ground shaking could be useful for emergency response providers in a damaging earthquake. A hybrid procedure, which combines site-dependent ground motion prediction models and the limited observations of the Real-Time Digital stream output system (RTD system operated by Central Weather Bureau, CWB), was set up to provide a high-resolution shakemap in a near-real-time manner after damaging earthquakes in Taiwan. One of the main factors that affect the result of ground motion prediction analysis is the existence of site effects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the local site effects and their influence in the ground shaking and then establish an early estimation procedure of potential hazard for damaging earthquakes. Based on the attenuation law, the site effects of each TSMIP station are discussed in terms of a bias function that is site and intensity-level dependent function. The standard deviation of the site-dependent ground motion prediction model can be significantly reduced. The nonlinear behavior of ground soil is automatically taken into account in the intensity-level dependent bias function. Both the PGA and the spectral acceleration are studied in this study. Based on the RTD data, event correctors are calculated and applied to precisely estimate the shakemap of damaging earthquakes for emergency response.