DSS模型系统建模与实现方法研究及其在海洋中的应用

把进程代数(Process Algebra简称PA)引入到DSS模型系统建模中来,提出了一种新的DSS模型建模理论体系,该建模理论可以描述模型之间激发、使用、选择、重复、同步和并发等行为：建立了该建模理论体系与组件对象模型的对应关系,提出了基于组件技术的模型系统实现方法,并通过一个海洋实例给出实现方法的具体应用。     

质点-网格海冰模式在渤海的数值预报试验

在海冰动力学和热力学的研究基础上,开发应用于渤海的质点-网格海冰模式.该模式采用质点-网格法,有效地避免了传统海冰模式的数值扩散问题.该模式采用冰厚分布函数取代传统渤海业务海冰预报模式中平整冰、堆积冰和开阔水的三类海冰分型.应用质点-网格海冰模式对2003年～2004年冬季渤海冰情进行了业务化逐日数值预报试验,并对预报结果进行统计检验和分析比较.     

热带气旋进入广西影响区强度突然加强的环流特征及物理量诊断分析

本文对1960~2002年进入广西影响区的热带气旋进行统计分析,发现平均每年有4.3个热带气旋进入广西影响区,强度突然加强的平均每年有0.3个,发生在6~10月,其区域分布主要集中在海南岛东北部近海至粤西近海区域和北部湾海域。利用《台风年鉴》和《历史天气图》以及欧洲中心NCEP再分析资料,对这类热带气旋进行环流特征诊断分析,得出了一些结论,有助于更好地做出这类热带气旋的风力和降水预报。     

溶解无机态营养盐在渤海沉积物-海水界面交换通量研究

了解无机态营养严在渤海沉积物-海水界面交换速率、通量基控制因素,于2002-08-06~08-24,应用船基沉积物培养方法,现场测定了硅酸盐(SiO3-Si)、磷酸盐(PO4-P)和溶解无机氮(DIN)在沉积物-海水界面上的交换速率(νN)和交换通量(FN)。结果显示,νSiO3-Si变化范围为2 220~4 317μmol.m-2.d-1,平均为3 466μmol.m-2.d-1,νPO4-P为0.4~77μmol.m-2.d-1,平均为39μmol.m-2.d-1,νDIN为667~2 167μmol.m-2.d-1,平均为1 308μmol.m-2.d-1,其中NH4-N和NO3-N的贡献分别为48%和47%左右。进一步分析表明,νSiO3-Si主要由溶解和扩散2个过程控制,前者决定于沉积物黏土矿物含量和含水率,后者决定于营养盐浓度和温度。νPO4-P主要由在以黏土为主的细颗粒和氢氧化铁上的吸附-解吸和扩散过程控制,前者分别决定于沉积物粒度和上覆水中DO浓度,而后者决定于间隙水与上覆水之间的浓度差。结果表明,FSiO3为2.59×1013mmol,FPO4为2.95×1011mmol,FDIN/SE为8.62×1012mmol。这样,为维持夏季渤海初级生产力,沉积物交换过程可提供大约65%的SiO3-Si、12%的PO4-P和22%的DIN,远远高于以河流径流为主的陆源排放。     

The influence of Stokes drift on oil spills: Sanchi oil spill case

Spilled oil floats and travels across the water’s surface under the influence of wind, currents, and wave action. Wave-induced Stokes drift is an important physical process that can affect surface water particles but that is currently absent from oil spill analyses. In this study, two methods are applied to determine the velocity of Stokes drift, the first calculates velocity from the wind-related formula based upon a one-dimensional frequency spectrum, while the second determines velocity directly from the wave model that was based on a two-dimensional spectrum. The experimental results of numerous models indicated that: (1) oil simulations that include the influence of Stokes drift are more accurate than that those do not; (2) for medium and long-term simulations longer than two days or more, Stokes drift is a significant factor that should not be ignored, and its magnitude can reach about 2% of the wind speed; (3) the velocity of Stokes drift is related to the wind but is not linear. Therefore, Stokes drift cannot simply be replaced or substituted by simply increasing the wind drift factor, which can cause errors in oil spill projections; (4) the Stokes drift velocity obtained from the two-dimensional wave spectrum makes the oil spill simulation more accurate.     

Tide-induced Lagrangian residual velocity and dynamic analysis based on field observations in the inner Xiangshan Bay,China

In the Xiangshan Bay at the east coast of China, coastal marine pollution is conspicuous and severe in recent years. As transport of the pollutants is closely related to the coastal circulation, there is a great practical significance to investigate the circulation in this area. In this work, the surface pattern and vertical profiles of Lagrangian residual velocity (LRV) were studied based on field observation data from the inner Xiangshan Bay. By tracking GPS-GPRS drifters’ trajectories, the surface LRV pattern is going out in the central deep trough and flowing inwards near the shoreside. Combined with data from two mooring stations, vertical profiles of LRV is flowing out at surface and flowing in at the bottom, consistent with the gravitational circulation induced by baroclinic effects at the estuary. However, according to the diagnostic analysis, the main mechanism driving the residual current is barotropic rather than baroclinic. The LRV equation is controlled by the tidally-averaged barotropic pressure gradient force, tidal body force and tidally-averaged turbulent stress, while the tidally-averaged baroclinic pressure gradient force is one order of magnitude less than other forces. Additionally, the tidally mean eddy viscosity coefficient which is used in the expression of tidally-averaged turbulent stress might be not adequate and requires further studies.     

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

海洋表层沉积物中金属镉的来源解析

利用2015年8月份对长江口及其邻近海域表层沉积物的监测数据,基于主成分分析/绝对主成分分数(PCA/APCS)受体模型定量解析了重金属元素镉(Cd)的可能来源,并结合地统计学插值了Cd的源贡献量的空间分布状况,结果表明沉积物中镉污染主要存在3个可能来源,源头及贡献率分别为工业污染(18.8%)、陆地径流输入(66.0%)、生物活动等自然因素(13.6%),并且各个源头贡献量具有不同的空间分布状况,其中工业污染的高值区主要集中在靠近陆地区域,陆地径流输入的分布呈现由近岸向外海逐减降低的特征,生物活动等自然因素的高值区主要集中在远离陆地的外海区域。     

目标触底瞬态地震波信号的检测

目标触底过程中通常会产生强烈的瞬态地震波信号,通过对此类地震波信号的监测、处理和分析,能够帮助判断该信号的产生是否是由异常活动产生的,并且能够根据信号分析相关信息,实现早期预警, 从而做出快速响应。 由于双谱检测具有很好的抗高斯干扰能力,对高斯平稳随机过程和试验模拟目标触底瞬态地震波信号的双谱特性进行了分析,并在高斯背景中对试验采集的瞬态信号进行了检测仿真,仿真试验结果表明:在高斯背景的干扰下,双谱检测能够有效实现对瞬态信号的检测^[1] 。     

江苏海岸中部近岸冬季潮汐和潮流特征

南黄海西侧的江苏海岸近岸区域,素以地形复杂、潮流强劲、悬沙输运剧烈著称,但是较长期的同步潮位和潮流观测数据仍然缺乏,尤其是在近岸(20 km)浅水(20 m)区域。2014年1月在大丰港附近开展了连续潮位和潮流观测,获得的数据揭示了一系列特征。此地潮汐潮流为正规半日潮,浅水分潮显著。平均潮差为3.05 m,最显著的两个分潮为M2和S2分潮,振幅分别为1.45 m和0.52 m。潮流最显著的半日分潮M2分潮和最显著的浅水分潮M4分潮在沿岸方向上振幅分别为0.84m/s和0.12m/s,在跨岸方向上振幅分别为0.24 m/s和0.01 m/s,沿岸方向占绝对优势。潮波的沿岸传播介于前进波和驻波之间,驻波的特征稍强。M2分潮潮流椭圆最大流(长轴)方向为南偏东7.4°。存在冬季沿岸向北的余流,垂向平均值的大小为2.2 cm/s。以上潮汐潮流特征为该区域海洋物质输运研究提供了基础资料。