前期土壤湿度和降雨对小流域山洪预警指标的影响评估

山洪灾害临界雨量预警指标受多种因素影响,尤其是前期土壤湿度状况和降雨变化。基于分布式水文模型和情景分析法确定安徽省岳西流域的山洪灾害临界雨量集合,评估前期土壤湿度状况、雨型和预警时段对临界雨量变化的影响。研究表明：① 中国山洪水文模拟系统在研究区内具有较好的适用性,率定期和验证期的平均径流深和洪峰流量相对误差均在15%以内,平均峰现时间误差在1h以内,平均Nash-Sutcliffe系数为0.79和0.77;② 60种情景模式下,池墩组村的临界雨量集合为141~528 mm;③ 前期土湿状况和雨型均显著影响临界雨量变化,随着土壤饱和率从0.20分别增加到0.50和0.80,临界雨量分别减少13.7%~16.2%和26.8%~31.8%;短历时预警时,临界雨量由大到小的相应雨型分别为减弱雨型、中间雨型和增强雨型。研究可为山洪灾害预报和早期预警提供理论支持,也为中国山洪灾害防治提供参考和借鉴。     

Investigation on flood event variations at space and time scales in the Huaihe River Basin of China using flood behavior classification

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Flood is one of the severest natural disasters in the world and has caused enormous causalities and property losses. Previous studies usually focus on flood...     

淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律及统计模拟

以淮河流域蚌埠闸以上20 个水文站点1956-2010 年日径流量观测数据资料为基础,采用游程检验、趋势检验和Mann-Kendall 检验法分析年最大日径流量的变化规律。分别采用年最大值法(annual maximum,AM) 和超门限峰值法(peaks over threshold,POT) 抽取径流序列样本, 运用广义极值分布(generalized extreme value distribution,GEV) 和广义帕累托分布(generalized Pareto distribution,GPD) 两种极值统计模型对规范化样本进行拟合,分析淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律。研究表明:1956-2010 年,淮河流域蚌埠闸以上的研究站点中,10 个站点的年最大日径流量有减少的趋势,另外10 个站点有不显著的增加趋势。极端径流事件大多发生在20 世纪60、70 年代,且以汛期居多。淮河流域的极端径流主要来自淮河干流、淮南山区和伏牛山区。使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) 法检验发现,GEV和GPD分布分别能较好的拟合AM和POT序列。采用百分位阈值法、平均超出量函数图法和超定量洪峰法三种方法选取阈值,对于淮河流域的极端径流事件模拟而言,百分位阈值法较好。     

Integrated Water Systems Model for Terrestrial Water Cycle Simulation

The terrestrial water cycle is influenced by a wide range of climatic variables and human disturbances. In the era of the Anthropocene, when humans drive the changes in atmospheric and hydrological processes in river basins, there is an urgent need to include human impacts in the study of the terrestrial water cycle. This paper focused on the large-scale hydrological modeling which takes account of human impacts, reviewed the research progress of the natural and human-induced changes in the terrestrial water cycle and the development of comprehensive terrestrial hydrological models in recent years, and proposed that an integrated water system model with human-related processes such as crop water demand model, engineering regulation and social water demand, be the key to large-scale water cycle simulations under changing environment. Based on the existing large-scale land surface hydrological model, there is a need to put forward the integration of the human-related processes. A comprehensive integrated water system model that considers multi-processes can help us to understand the key mechanisms of how climate change and human activity influence the regional water cycle. It also provides a theoretical and practical basis for investigating the causes and effects of changes in terrestrial water cycle under a changing environment, and thus offers scientific support for climate change adaptation in the water sector.     

近50 年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征

以淮河流域27 个气象站点1960-2009 年逐日降水观测资料为基础,选取年最大降水量序列(AM) 和超门限峰值序列(POT),分析淮河流域年极端降水事件的时空变化趋势,研究淮河流域降水极值的统计特征。研究发现：过去50 年,淮河流域大多数站点年最大日降水量有增加的趋势,少数站点有减少的趋势,但增加和减少的趋势均不明显。从单个气象站点50 年降水序列来看,年最大日降水事件发生的时间大多集中于20 世纪60-70 年代,且以汛期居多。利用L-矩法、K-S 检验等方法,发现GEV和GP分布分别能够较好的拟合AM和POT序列。通过计算比较在不同重现期水平下的降水量,发现POT序列及其对应的GP分布能够更好的模拟淮河流域极端降水序列。     

多种机器学习模型对不同洪水类型特征指标模拟效果评估

洪水过程的特征指标不仅包括洪水量级,还包括时间、形态、动力学等指标。现有模型和方法重点关注洪水量级指标的模拟,对其他指标的模拟仍有待深入。如何实现对洪水过程所有特征指标的模拟已成为目前洪水预报的技术瓶颈。论文采用4种机器学习模型(多元线性回归、多层感知器、随机森林和支持向量机)对淮河上游长台关流域59场降雨—洪水场次7个特征指标(洪水总量、洪峰流量、洪水历时、洪峰时间偏度、高流量历时占比、涨洪和落洪速率)进行模拟,评估不同模型对不同洪水类型和特征指标的模拟效果。结果显示：(1)长台关流域洪水过程可分为3类,第1类洪量中等、历时长且洪峰出现时间偏前(16场);第2类洪量低、形态矮胖且洪峰出现时间靠后(34场);第3类洪量大、涨落水迅速、形态尖瘦(9场)。(2)时间指标模拟效果最优,动力学指标模拟效果最差。多元线性回归和随机森林模拟效果随所有特征指标数值的增加而增强;支持向量机的模拟效果随着洪水历时指标数值的增加而降低,随着其余特征指标数值的增加而增强;多层感知器模拟效果随着洪水总量、洪峰流量、高流量历时占比和涨洪速率等指标值的增加而增强。(3)从各类型洪水特征模拟精度来看,4种模型对第3...     

Noble Gas and Stable Isotopic Constraints on the Origin of the Ag–Cu Polymetallic Ore Deposits in the Baiyangping Area,Yunnan Province,SW China

The Lanping basin, Yunnan province, SW China, is located at the juncture of the Eurasian and Indian Plates in the eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau. The Lanping basin, in the Sanjiang Tethyan metallogenic province, is a significant Cu–Ag–Zn–Pb mineralized belt in China that includes the largest sandstone‐hosted Zn–Pb deposit in the world, the Jinding deposit, as well as several Ag–Cu deposits (the Baiyangping and Jinman deposits). These deposits, with total reserves of over 16.0 Mt Pb + Zn, 0.6 Mt Cu, and 7,000 t Ag, are mainly hosted in Meso‐Cenozoic clastic rocks and are dominantly controlled by two Cenozoic thrust systems developed in the western and eastern segments of the basin. The Baiyangping, Babaoshan, and Hetaoqing ore deposits are representative of the epithermal base metal deposits in the Lanping basin. The microthermometric data show that the ore‐forming fluids for these deposits were low temperature (110–180 °C) and had bimodal distribution of salinity at moderate and mid to high salinities (approximately 2–8 wt.% and 18–26 wt.% NaCl equivalent). The C and O isotope data indicate that the ore‐forming fluids were related to hot basin brines. We present new He and Ar isotope data on volatiles released from fluid inclusions contained in sulfides and in barite in these three deposits. ³He/⁴He ratios of the ore‐forming fluids are 0.01 to 0.14 R/Ra with a mean of 0.07 Ra (where R is the ³He/⁴He ratio and Ra is the ratio for atmospheric helium). This mean value is intermediate to typical ³He/⁴He ratios for the crust (R/Ra = 0.01 to 0.05) and the ratio for air‐saturated water (R/Ra = 1). The mean ratio is also significantly lower than the ratios found for mantle‐derived fluids (R/Ra = 6 to 9). The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios of the ore‐forming fluids range from 298 to 382 with a mean of 323. This value is slightly higher than that for the air‐saturated water (295.5). The ³He/⁴He ratios of fluids from the fluid inclusions imply that the ore‐forming fluid for the Baiyangping, Babaoshan, and Hetaoqing deposits was derived from the crust and that any mantle‐derived He was negligible. The content of the radiogenic Ar ranges between 0.2 to 20.4%, and the proportion of air‐derived ⁴⁰Ar averages 94.1%. This indicates that atmospheric Ar was important in the formation of these deposits but that some radiogenic ⁴⁰Ar was derived from crustal rocks. Based on these observations coupled with other geochemical evidence, we suggest that the ore‐forming fluids responsible for the formation of the Ag–Cu–Pb–Zn polymetallic ore deposits in the Baiyangping area of the Lanping basin were mainly derived from crustal fluids. The fluids may have mixed with some amount of air‐saturated water, but there was no significant involvement of mantle‐derived fluids.     

基于综合指标法的鄱阳湖生态系统健康评价

由于湖泊生态问题日益突出,湖泊生态系统安全状态已经成为人们关注的热点问题,了解湖泊水生态系统的状况并根据湖泊生态系统健康状况开展精准治理和生态修复与保护尤为重要。本文基于对鄱阳湖及其流域生态环境的长期监测数据和资料收集,采用综合指标体系法,从物理形态、水文、水环境、水域生态、湿地生态和社会服务6个方面构建了鄱阳湖生态系统健康评估的指标体系,主要涵盖了湖泊口门状况、“五河”入湖径流变异程度、入湖河流水质达标率等26个指标。依据设置的阈值等级得到鄱阳湖生态系统健康评价各层次健康状况等级,通过对各湖泊生态系统各指标得分进行加权计算,得出生态系统健康评估准则层和目标层的得分,最终对鄱阳湖生态系统健康进行了客观的评价。结果表明,构建的湖泊生态系统健康评价体系针对性强、科学全面、具有可操作性,可为鄱阳湖及类似通江湖泊的生态系统健康评价提供案例和方法借鉴。评价结果表明鄱阳湖健康体征状况目标层得分为73.45分,评价结果为亚健康,鄱阳湖水生态系统健康主要受泄流能力、水文节律变化、富营养化程度和物种多样性的影响。最后根据鄱阳湖的水生态系统健康评分等级探讨了鄱阳湖水生态系统中亟需解决的问题,针对性地提出了...     

LA-ICP-MS mineral chemistry of titanite and the geological implications for exploration of porphyry Cu deposits in the Jinshajiang – Red River alkaline igneous belt,SW China

The Jinshajiang–Red River alkaline igneous belt in the eastern Indian–Asian collision zone, of southwestern China, hosts abundant, economically important Cu–Mo–Au mineralization of Cenozoic age. Major- and trace-element compositions of titanites from representative Cu-mineralized intrusions determined by LA-ICP-MS show higher values for Fe₂O₃/Al₂O₃, ΣREE?+?Y, LREE/HREE, Ce/Ce*, (Ce/Ce*)/(Eu/Eu*), U, Th, Ta, Nb and Ga, and lower values for Al₂O₃, CaO, Eu/Eu*, Zr/Hf, Nb/Ta and Sr than those for titanites from barren intrusions. Different ΣREE?+?Y, LREE/HREE, U, Th, Ta and Nb values of titanites between Cu-mineralized and barren intrusions were controlled mainly by the coexisting melt compositions. However, different Sr concentrations and negative Eu anomalies of titanites between Cu-mineralized and barren intrusions were most probably caused by different degrees of crystallization of feldspar from melts. In addition, different Ga concentrations and positive Ce anomalies of titanites between Cu-mineralized and barren intrusions were most likely caused by different magmatic fO₂ conditions. Pronounced compositional differences of titanites between Cu-mineralized and barren intrusions can provide a useful tool to help discriminate between ore-bearing and barren intrusions at an early stage of exploration, and, thus, have a potential application in exploration for porphyry Cu deposits in the Jinshajiang – Red River alkaline igneous belt, and to other areas.