Coupling typhoon rainfall forecasting with overland-flow modeling for early warning of inundation

Taiwan suffers from an average of three or four typhoons annually, and the inundation caused by the heavy precipitation that is associated with typhoons frequently occurs in lowlands and floodplains. Potential inundation maps have been widely used as references to set up non-structural strategies for mitigating flood hazards. However, spatiotemporal rainfall distributions must be addressed to improve the accuracy of inundation forecasting for emergency response operations. This study presents a system for 24-h-ahead early warning of inundation, by coupling the forecasting of typhoon rainfall with the modeling of overland flow. A typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) is introduced to forecast dynamically the spatiotemporal rainfall distribution based on typhoon tracks. The systematic scheme for early warning of inundation based on the spatiotemporal downscaling of rainfall and 2D overland-flow modeling yields not only the extent of inundation, but also the time to maximum inundation depth. The scheme is superior to traditional early warning method referring to the maximum extent and depth of inundation determined from conditional uniform rainfall. Analytical results show that coupling TRCM with an overland-flow model yields satisfactory inundation hydrographs for warning of the extent and peak time of inundation. This study also shows that the accuracy of forecasting spatiotemporal rainfall patterns determines the performance of inundation forecasting, which is critical to emergency response operations.     

岩石压剪性断裂特性及Ⅰ—Ⅱ型复合断裂判据

本文系统阐述了岩石压剪性断裂的特性,认为金属断裂力学复合断裂判据基本上不适用于压剪状态下的岩石斯裂;在此基础上,提出了新的岩石压剪性断裂判据:2COSθ_0/2(cosθ_0-1)[(1+1/f~2)~(1/2)-1]K_Ⅰ+[(sin θ_0/2-3sin 3θ_0/2)(1+1/f~2)~1/2+4sin θ_0/2]K_Ⅱ=4K_(Ⅰc),推导了起始断裂角ψ_0,说明了实验验证结果,指出了该判据在工程地质领域中的应用途径。     

大连新港的红粘土及其工程特性的形成

在大连新港油罐区的建设中,发现了一种具有高孔隙性、高含水量、高塑性、中低压缩性的特殊土。作者对这种土及其母岩的矿物学、岩石学、地球化学、物理化学和工程特性进行了系统研究,揭示了该区红粘土及其工程特性的形成机理,该区红粘土乃是蒙脱石化的粗玄岩,在中温带气候区红土花作用的产物。     

铀矿石和环境固体样品中210Po的测量

铀矿石和固体环境样品用Ｎａ２Ｏ２,ＮａＯＨ在６５０°Ｃ快速熔融后,用ＨＣｌ中和到ｐＨ值近似为９,以Ｆｅ（ＯＨ）３载带２１０Ｐｏ,调ＨＣｌ酸度为０．２－０．４ｍｏｌ／Ｌ,用抗坏血酸保护镀片,在７０°Ｃ时自镀３ｈ,２１０Ｐｏ的回收率可达９７．８±１．４％。产生的硅胶不影响测量结果。     

The Lower Changjiang (Yangzi/Yangtze River) metallogenic belt, east central China: intrusion- and wall rock-hosted Cu–Fe–Au, Mo, Zn, Pb, Ag deposits

The lower valley of Changjiang, from Wuhan of the Hubei Province in the west to Zhenjiang of the Jiangsu Province in the east, contains more than 200 polymetallic (Cu–Fe–Au, Mo, Zn, Pb, Ag) deposits and is one of the most important metallogenic belts in China. This metallogenic belt, situated at the northern margin of the Yangzi craton and bordered by the Dabieshan ultrahigh pressure metamorphic belt to the north, consists mainly of Cambrian–Triassic marine clastic sedimentary rocks and carbonate and evaporite rocks, which overlay a Precambrian basement and are intruded by Yanshanian (205 to 64 Ma) granitoid intrusions and subvolcanic complexes. Repeated tectonism from Late Proterozoic to Triassic resulted in extensively developed networks of faults and folds involving the Cambrian–Triassic sedimentary strata and the Precambrian basement. The Yanshanian granitoid intrusions and subvolcanic complexes in the Lower Changjiang metallogenic belt are characterized by whole-rock δ¹⁸O of +8‰ to +10‰, initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.704 to 0.708, and εNd^t from −10 to −17 and have been interpreted to have originated from mixing between juvenile mantle and old crustal materials. Also, the Yanshanian granitoids exhibit eastward younging and increase in alkalinity (i.e., from older calc–alkaline in the west to younger subalkaline–alkaline in the east), which are related to oblique collision between the Yangzi and Sino-Korean cratons and tectonic evolution from early compressional to late extensional or rifting regimes. Most polymetallic deposits in the Lower Changjiang metallogenic belt are clustered in seven districts where the Yanshanian magmatism is particularly extensive: from west to east, Edong, Jiurui, Anqing–Guichi, Luzhong, Tongling, Ningwu and Ningzhen. Mineralization is characterized by the occurrence of three distinct types of orebodies in individual deposits: orebodies in Yanshanian granitoid intrusions, skarn orebodies at the contact zones between the Yanshanian intrusions and Late Paleozoic–Early Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, and stratabound massive sulfide orebodies in the Late Paleozoic–Early Mesozoic sedimentary strata. The most important host sedimentary strata are the Middle Carboniferous Huanglong Formation, Lower Permian and Lower–Middle Triassic carbonate and evaporite rocks. The intrusion-hosted and skarn orebodies exhibit well-developed zonation in alteration assemblages, metal contents, and isotopic compositions within individual deposits, and apparently formed from hydrothermal activities related to the Yanshanian magmatism. The stratabound massive sulfide orebodies in the Late Paleozoic–Early Mesozoic sedimentary strata have long been suggested to have formed from sedimentary or volcano-sedimentary exhalative processes in shallow marine environments. However, extensive research over the last 40 years failed to produce unequivocal evidence for syngenetic mineralization. On the basis of geological relationships and isotope geochemical characteristics, we propose a carbonate-hosted replacement deposit model for the genesis of these stratabound massive sulfide orebodies and associated skarn orebodies. This model suggests that epigenetic mineralization resulted from interactions between magmatic fluids evolved from the Yanshanian intrusions with carbonate and evaporite wall rocks. Mineralization was an integral but distal part of the larger hydrothermal systems that formed the proximal skarn orebodies at the contact zones and the intrusion-hosted orebodies. The stratabound massive sulfide deposits of the Lower Changjiang metallogenic belt share many features with the well-studied, high-temperature, carbonate-hosted replacement deposits of northern Mexico and western United States, particularly with respect to association with small, shallow granitoid complexes, structural and stratigraphic controls on mineralization, alteration assemblages, geometry of orebodies, metal association, metal zonation and isotopic systematics.     

硼镁铁矿的新亚种——富锡硼镁铁矿

富锡硼镁铁矿是硼镁铁矿的含锡亚种。它产于湖南常宁县七里坪镁质矽卡岩硼矿床中。矿物中SnO_2变化范围为4.6—12.0%,其分子式为(Mg_1.64Fe~(2+_(0.35))Mn~(2+_(0.01))(Fe~(3+_(0.55))Sn_(0.16)Mg(0.23))BO_5,这是迄今未见详细报导过的。笔者从矿物的光学物理性质、化学成分、X射线晶体学以及晶体化学等方面进行了研究。同时,与它的类似矿物在晶体学方面作了对比讨论。从以上研究中得出结论:Sn~(4+)在结构中占据Fe~(3+)的位置,并以伴随着的Mg~(2+)作电荷补偿。还提出了Sn元素在硼镁铁矿中不仅作为微量元素存在,而且可以作为造种元素存在的新见解。     

塔里木盆地哈拉哈塘地区奥陶系一间房组岩溶储集层地震识别与控制因素*

哈拉哈塘地区位于塔里木盆地北部隆起轮南低凸起奥陶系潜山背斜西翼上,其中奥陶系一间房组碳酸盐岩岩溶储集层具有成因复杂、非均质性强和识别困难等特点。以该地区现有钻井资料、地震解释成果为基础,在现代岩溶研究成果的指导下,利用分时窗提取、断裂属性(Fault Fracture Attribute,FFA)裂缝预测等特色技术,详细刻画了一间房组孔洞、裂缝型储集层空间分布特征。利用地层CT扫描古河道识别、残厚法古地形恢复、基于优化算法的构造识别体断裂精细刻画等特色技术开展了岩溶储集层控制因素分析,指出古地形较高、水系发达、小断裂发育等是一间房组岩溶储集层发育的有利控制因素。面对现有碳酸盐岩岩溶储集层勘探难题,以现代岩溶理论为指导,钻井-地震结合,综合利用多种地震预测技术是开展研究区碳酸盐岩岩溶储集层识别和控制因素分析的重要手段。     

Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model

Natural Hazards - Many dams have been constructed around the world. Compared with the potential losses of life and economy, the environmental impacts caused by dam breach were less analyzed. As a...     

暴雨过程的中尺度分析

利用１９９８年６月１３日００时－１４日１４时地降水量,地面风场,高空雷达回波资料,被步分析了中尺度过程的演变特征,同中尺度系统是造成暴雨的直接原因并统计出物量,中低压环流活动与暴雨的对应关系。在大尺度环流形势下,中尺度辐合线和地形作用为局地大暴雨提供了有利条件。     

Characteristics and influencing factors of frontal upwelling in the Yellow Sea in summer

Frontal upwelling is an important phenomenon in summer in the Yellow Sea (YS) and plays an essential role in the distribution of nutrients and biological species. In this paper, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is applied to investigate the characteristics and influencing factors of frontal upwelling in the YS. The results show that the strength and distribution of frontal upwelling are largely dependent on the topography and bottom temperature fronts. The frontal upwelling in the YS is stronger and narrower near the eastern coast than near the western coast due to the steeper shelf slope. Moreover, external forcings, such as the meridional wind speed and air temperature in summer and the air temperature in the preceding winter and spring, have certain influences on the strength of frontal upwelling. An increase in air temperature in the previous winter and spring weakens the frontal upwelling in summer; in contrast, an increase in air temperature in summer strengthens the frontal upwelling. When the southerly wind in summer increases, the upwelling intensifies in the western YS and weakens in the eastern YS. The air temperature influences the strength of upwelling by changing the baroclinicity in the frontal region. Furthermore, the meridional wind speed in summer affects frontal upwelling via Ekman pumping.