清代耕地数据恢复重建方法与实证研究

本文尝试构建一套适用于清代耕地数据的修正校验体系,以清代官方册载田亩数据为基础,采用人口基数和垦殖趋势进行检验和订正,通过替换、引用、衔接对比等方法进行数据修正,重建清代耕地数据,以期为后续相关研究提供参考.在建立理论分析框架的基础上,本文以历史资料相对丰富的山东省为例,对清代山东省的耕地数据进行修正与校验,结果表明：① 清代山东省的册载田亩数据不实情况普遍,经要素法修正的数据虽然通过了人口检验,但未能通过垦殖趋势校验,有必要进行进一步的订正和校准;② 在修正和校验过程中应综合考虑不同省份间垦殖政策、种植制度、自然条件等的差异,从修正系数到校验重点进行因时因地调整;③ 清前期山东省耕地增长主要受限于劳动力供给,耕地面积接近于劳动力供给线,随着人口的增长,耕地面积逐渐趋向于温饱线.同治以后,耕地面积开始低于温饱线,需要依靠粮食输入才能满足人口需求,山东省由粮食输出省变为粮食输入省.     

Reconstructing the historical spatial land use pattern for Jiangsu Province in mid-Qing Dynasty

This study is proposed to reconstruct a high-resolution spatial distribution of historical land use pattern with all land use types to overcome low-accuracy and/or the monotonic land use type in current historical land use reconstruction studies. The year of 1820 is set as the temporal section and the administrative area of Jiangsu Province is the study area. Land use types being reconstructed include farmland, residential land (including both urban land and rural residential land), water body, and other land (including forest land, grassland, and unused land). Data sources mainly refer to historical documents, historical geographic research outcomes, contemporary statistics, and natural environmental data. With great considerations over regional natural resources and social and economic conditions, a few theoretical assumptions have been proposed to facilitate the adjustment on prefecture farmland, urban land, and rural residential land. Upholding the idea that the contemporary land use pattern has been inherently in sequence with the historical land use pattern as well as the land use pattern shall be consistent to its accessibility, this study reconstructs the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province in 1820 with 100 m*100 m grids based on accessibility analysis and comprehensive evaluation. The outcome has been tested as valid by regionalization and correlation analysis. The resulted spatial distribution shows that back in 1820 in Jiangsu Province: (1) farmland, urban land, rural residential land, water body, and other land take about 48.49%, 4.46%, 0.16%, 15.03%, and 31.86% of the total land area respectively; (2) the land use pattern features high proportion of land in farming while low-proportion land in non-farming uses while population, topography, and the density of water body lead to great spatial variations; and (3) the reconstruction methodology has been tested as reasonable based on significant positive correlations between 1820 data and 1985 for both farmland and rural residential land at the prefecture level.     

Free Radicals in Organic Matter for Thermal History Reconstruction of Carbonate Succession

Geothermometer is one of the most useful methods to reconstruct the thermal history of sedimentary basins. This paper introduces the application of free radicals concentration of organic matter as a thermal indicator in the thermal history reconstruction of carbonate succession, based on anhydrous thermal simulation results of type I and H1 kerogen. A series of free radicals data are obtained under thermal simulation of different heating temperatures and times, and quantitative modds between free radical concentration （Ng） of organic matter and time-temperature index （TTI） for types I and type H1 kerogen are also obtained. This Ng.TTI relation was used to model the Ordovician thermal gradients of Well TZ12 in the Tarim Basin. The modeling result is corresponding to the results obtained by apatite fission track data and published data. This new method of thermal history reconstruction will be benefit to the hydrocarbon generation and accumulation study and resource assessment of carbonate succession.     

中国城市地价水平及变化影响因素分析

城市地价的影响因素众多且复杂,地价水平和地价变化趋势受到社会、经济、政策等多方面因素的共同影响。论文从城市土地供需和宏观政策角度选取房地产投资额、市辖区建设用地面积、耕地占用税等10 项影响因素,采用2008-2010 年全国105 个土地市场较发育城市分季度地价数据,建立地价水平值与地价增长率影响因素的多层线性模型,定量分析了不同行政层次下,各影响因素对城市土地价格和地价增长率的影响程度。研究结论显示,地价水平值与地价增长率的影响因素不尽相同,且主导因素差异显著：在市级地价影响因素中,房地产投资增长是地价上升的直接动力,而地价增长率则主要受城市建设用地面积、房地产投资额的影响较;省级耕地保护政策对平抑地价、控制地价涨速作用显著,其中新增建设用地土地有偿使用费和耕地占用税是省级层次影响最显著的两项政策指标。     

我国东南沿海中小流域洪水模拟研究

我国东南沿海多为独流入海的中小流域,河流短小,流域调节能力弱.该区洪水历时较短,但危害较大,加之近年来区内经济的迅速发展,洪水造成损失日趋加剧,因此开展此区洪水特性和防洪减灾研究意义重大.本文以中国东南沿海曹娥江流域为典型,根据中小流域洪水的特点,在初步分析流域降雨径流的成因和洪水演进规律的基础上,开展了流域洪水模拟研究, 选择建立了流域降雨径流模型以及洪水演进模型,重点探讨了利用遥感信息和GIS相结合确定水文模型参数的方法和途径,经实验流域资料检验分析,其模拟结果计算精度满足要求.该研究将有助于该区流域降雨径流特性及洪水演变规律的深入研究,同时为东南沿海中小流域洪水模拟预测和防洪减灾研究提供了经验和模式.     

Impact of cultivated land fragmentation on spatial heterogeneity of agricultural agglomeration in China

Systematically revealing the impact of cultivated land fragmentation(CLF) on the geographical agglomeration pattern of agricultural specialization(AS) has positive significance for national agricultural production management. Based on the data of the second national land survey and agricultural production, this study has explored the impact of CLF on spatial heterogeneity of agricultural agglomeration in China by comprehensively using the Theil index, ordinary least square model and geographically weighted regression. Results showed that:(1) the regional differentiation of the CLF in China is obvious, and the cultivated land fragmentation index is generally characterized by increasing pattern from northwest to southeast.(2) Spatially, the development level of AS in China has formed three high-value clusters in the Northeast China Plain, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the middle of the Middle-lower Yangtze Plain; and the low-value contiguous areas centered on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau and the Sichuan Basin and surrounding regions, with significant spatial differences. The contribution of grain crops, economic crops, and vegetables and melon to the level of AS was 74.63%, 9.09%, and 16.28%, respectively, and the pattern of agricultural geographical aggregation dominated by grain crops has primarily taken in shape.(3) CLF is significantly negatively correlated with AS, and every 1% increase in the degree of CLF will result in a decrease of about 0.2% in AS. However, the impact of CLF on the geographic agglomeration of different crop categories or groups varies significantly. Among them, CLF has a prominent impact on the specialization level of grain crops and vegetables and melon. Each 1% increase in the CLF will reduce the specialization level of grain crops by 0.38%, and increase the level of vegetables and melon by about 0.22%.(4) According to the landscape characteristics of cultivated land, the degree of spatial division and agglomeration of cultivated land patches have a significant impact on the formation of geographical agglomerationpattern of AS, and the intensity and direction of influence show significant regional differentiation, while the patch size has no significant impact.     

Carbon emissions induced by farmland expansion in China during the past 300 years

Scientific assessment of the accounting over carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem in the process land use/land cover changes caused by human activities will help reduce the uncertainty in estimating carbon emissions from the terrestrial ecosystem. This study employs a bookkeeping model to estimate the carbon emissions from farmland reclamation in China during the past 300 years based on the annual rate of land use changes(derived from historical natural vegetation, farmland data), preset carbon density and coefficients of disturbance curves. We find out that:(1) there was a net increase of 79.30×10~4km~2 in national farmland; about 65% of reclaimed farmland had been forest land and 26% of that had been grass land previously;(2) the total amount of carbon emissions from farmland expansion in China had been between 2.94 and 5.61 Pg with the median 3.78 Pg during the past 300 years; specifically, carbon emissions of vegetation were 1.58 Pg while those of soil ranged from 1.35 Pg to4.03 Pg with the median 2.20 Pg;(3) carbon emissions vary greatly across various ecosystems: the emissions were most from forest land, and then grass land and swamps, and the least from shrubs; deserts functioned more likely to be carbon stock in the process of land reclamation;(4) along the time line, carbon emissions had decreased first and then increased while the peak emissions occurred in the first half of 20 th century; and spatially, carbon emissions were most released in Northeast and Southwest China; Northwest China was of the minimum carbon emissions.     

碳酸盐岩层系热历史恢复的有机质自由基古温标研究

古温标是恢复沉积盆地热演化历史的重要指标之一。目前,有众多的古温标用于碳酸盐岩层系热历史的恢复,既有沥青反射率(Rb)、牙形石色变指数(CAI)、镜状体反射率、有机质自由基浓度(N)、激光拉曼光谱等有机质古温标,也有矿物的裂变径迹热定年、岩石声发射、伊利石结晶度等矿物古温标,但他们都有不同的适用范围。本文针对有机质自由基浓度作为古温标在碳酸盐岩层系热历史恢复中的应用进行了探索研究。根据不同受热时间和加热温度下的热模拟试验,分析了型和型有机质的自由基浓度的热演化特征,得到了自由基浓度与时间-温度(TTI)的定量关系;由此建立了自由基浓度(N)与时间-温度(TTI)的定量模型并将之应用于塔里木盆地TZ12井的热历史研究。依据自由基浓度古温标模拟得到的TZ12井区奥陶纪时期的古地温梯度为3℃/100m左右,该结果与前人对该地区热史研究的结论及本研究中依据磷灰石裂变径迹模拟的结果相一致。对于经历了多期构造运动的下古生界碳酸盐岩层系的热史恢复,最好是多种古温标并用,多种方法综合运用,才能精确地恢复有机质的热演化史。     

基于冲突—适配视角的土地利用可持续性评价

土地利用可持续性评价是土地系统科学与可持续发展交叉学科研究中一个重要内容,对识别区域土地利用与管理问题,制定可持续土地管理决策具有重要意义。本文从土地利用可持续内涵解析出发,提出了一种基于土地系统冲突与适配视角、适用于不同区域与时段的土地利用可持续评价框架,并以2000—2015年长三角地区为例进行实证分析。结果显示：① 基于土地系统外部发展施压及土地系统内部支撑角度,可以构建由“资源子系统冲突”“功能子系统冲突”“承载子系统冲突”“资源—功能适配性”“功能—承载适配性”组成的土地系统结构。并基于静力学平衡方程,通过计算结构支撑性与平衡性得到土地利用可持续性;② 长三角地区各项土地冲突适配指标中,土地系统功能冲突改善程度最高,但土地功能与承载适配程度最低。各项冲突适配指标具有显著的城乡、纬度、海陆空间分异特征;③ 长三角地区包含17种土地系统构型,呈现最稳定与最不稳定构型两极分布多、中间构型数量少的特征。长三角地区土地利用可持续性结果范围是0.20~1.58,其中浙江>安徽>长三角地区均值>江苏>上海,浙江诸暨市、安吉县等实施绿色发展战略地区显著高于江苏连云港市、如东县等实施传统经济主导型发展战略地区。本文可以为分析区域土地系统可持续性、设置土地可持续发展规划目标、探索土地系统转型方向提供思路与方法借鉴。     

清代中期江苏省土地利用格局网格化重建

针对当前历史土地利用空间重建研究多基于单一地类且空间分辨率较低的特征,提出较高分辨率全地类土地利用空间重建方法。以1820年为时间断面,以现代江苏省域为研究区,以历史文献记载、历史地理学研究成果、现代统计数据、自然环境数据等为支撑,将土地利用类型划分为耕地、聚落用地（含城镇用地、农村居民点用地）、水域和其他用地（含林草地及未利用地）,考虑区域自然资源和社会经济特征,提出理论假设,对府级耕地、城镇用地、农村居民点用地数量进行修正;沿用以现代土地利用格局为基础反演历史土地利用格局的基本思路,从人地关系角度出发,采用治所邻近度分析、综合评价等方法重建了1820年100 m×100 m空间格网下的江苏省土地利用格局,同时,通过不同地理分区统计及降尺度对比间接验证等分析了重建结果。结果表明：① 1820年江苏省耕地、城镇用地、农村居民点用地、水域用地及其他用地面积分别占区域总面积的48.49%、4.46%、0.16%、15.03%和31.86%;② 1820年研究区内土地垦殖率较高,但建设用地比率较低,受人口分布、地形及河网密度等影响,不同地理分区土地利用差异较为显著;③ 农村居民点用地及耕地的降尺度分析结果均呈显著线性正相关,在一定程度上表明研究结果具有合理性。