一种气候预测综合决策的方法——递归正权综合决策法

根据气候预测的特点，提供了以误差平方和为风险函数，以正权综合为模式的多途径气候预测决策方案。不仅从理论上论证了几种正权方法的优性，还提供了递归技巧，进一步提高了正权综合的预测精度。对1997年汛期降水预测所做的综合决策表明，该方法具有较好的综合决策能力。     

非地转湿Q矢量在台风暴雨预报中的应用试验

利用NCEP/NCAR全球格点资料和TRMM卫星资料,采用改进后的非地转湿Q矢量,对0908号台风“莫拉克”引起的台湾南部特大暴雨过程进行预报应用试验.试验结果表明:(1) 850hPa高度层的非地转湿Q矢量散度及水汽通量散度分布可以预报未来24 h暴雨的落区及其雨带的分布,暴雨发生在Q矢量散度梯度大值区靠近辐合区域,...     

尺度分解技术在定量降水临近预报检验中的应用

采用2004年Casati提出的强度-尺度检验技术,选取2008年汛期代表不同类型降水(对流云降水、层状云降水、混合云降水)的4个降水过程,从尺度分解角度入手,对"世界气象组织天气研究计划——北京奥运会预报示范项目"(WWRP B08FDP)项目中4个I临近预报参加系统(BJANC,GRAPES-SWIFT,STEPS,CARDS)的1h定量降水预报进行时空尺度分解检验,研究降水预报技巧与降水时空尺度和强度之间的关系。结果表明:尽管目前国际先进的临近预报系统的水平分辨率已高达1～2km,但其有技巧的临近预报能力主要集中于空间尺度大于32km、时间尺度大于1h的降水系统,而对小于这些尺度的降水系统预报能力仍非常有限;在不同时空尺度的临近预报降水误差中,60%以上的误差来自于空间尺度小于8km的降水,85%以上的误差来自于时间尺度小于1h的降水,传统的外推技术不能满足这些较小时空尺度降水预报的需求,要发展有效的预报方法来提高较小时空尺度降水的预报能力。将基于外推的临近预报和基于稠密观测资料、快速更新的数值预报的潜势预报相结合可能是一条有效的解决途径。     

浙江花岗岩类地球化学与地壳演化——Ⅱ.元古宙花岗岩类

浙江元古宙花岗岩类包括神功期（1．8－1．9Ga）和晋宁晚期（0．6—0．9Ga）。研究了浙江元古宙花岗岩类的主元素、微量元素、稀土元素和Rb、Sr同位素组成特征及岩石成因，探讨了浙江地壳的演化。浙江地壳形成于太古亩和元古宙，地壳增生的时期为2．6－2．7、0．8-1．1和0.1－0.12Ga。随时间演化浙江地壳组成有变化，但分异演化不明显。沿江-绍断裂分布的晋宁晚期慢源和壳幔混合中酸性岩是普宁期俯冲碰撞的证据。加里乐和印支期是两次规模不大的构造运动。     

On determining membership of open clusters from relative proper motion

We discuss the determination of membership of 42 open clusters. Our analysis shows that Vasilevskis' mathematical model can be reasonably applied to this case. Our improved version of Sanders' method and our definition of cluster member based on the principles of discriminatory analysis effectively exclude stars of low probabilities. It is important in the study of open cluster to use only those with high probabilities. The effectiveness of the statistical method is closely related to the velocity distributions of the member and field stars. For fields where the error rate is high, it is better to combine other data than proper motion in determining membership.     

Decoupling of stalagmite-derived Asian summer monsoon records from North Atlantic temperature change during marine oxygen isotope stage 5d

The Asian monsoon is an important component of the global climate system. Seasonal variations in wind, rainfall, and temperature associated with the Asian monsoon systems affect a vast expanse of tropical and subtropical Asia. Speleothem-derived summer monsoon variation in East Asia was previously found to be closely associated with millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region between 75 and 10 ka. New evidence recovered from East Asia, however, suggests that the teleconnection between summer monsoon in East Asia and temperature change in the North Atlantic region may have significantly reduced during 120 to ~ 110 ka, a period directly after the full last interglaciation and corresponding roughly to marine oxygen isotope stage 5d. This reduction may be due to the low ice volume in the North Hemisphere at that time, which makes the millennial-scale change in temperature in the North Atlantic region less effective in influencing the Asian summer monsoon. This is important for investigating the mechanisms controlling the Asian summer monsoon and the paleoclimatic teleconnection between East Asia and the North Atlantic region, and for predicting monsoon-associated precipitation in East Asia under a global-warming trend.     

构造地球化学测量在找金中的应用

通过马庄山地区构造地球化学测量找金试验和在特克斯县１５号水系沉积物异常区开展构造地球化学测量的推广应用证明：构造地球化学测量工作,以遥感地质构造解译为先导,民裂裂构造裂隙充填物及蚀变岩石为采样介质,较岩石地球化学测量更具有矿直接性。     

Sea Level Prediction in the Yellow Sea From Satellite Altimetry With a Combined Least Squares-Neural Network Approach

Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast.     

内蒙古中部地区形变主要干扰的时频响应特征分析

选取内蒙古中部地区定点形变观测中受降雨、大风、气压干扰以及地震波影响的典型数据,采用S变换,对该地区形变观测中4种主要干扰信号的时频响应特征进行分析与讨论。结果表明,降雨干扰信号主要集中在低频区域,其频率先增大后减小;大风干扰表现为高频干扰,时频域能量强度与观测曲线受风扰影响变化幅度成正比;气压干扰信号的优势频率分布在低频段内;地震波影响中VP垂直摆和JCZ地震计记录的地震波较为相似,但VP垂直摆记录的频段要小于JCZ地震计,VP垂直摆主要记录的是低频地震波。同时,4种干扰信号的时频域频率、能量强度随时间变化趋势与数据观测时域变化趋势相一致。     

中国南海东部海域气候特征及风浪流极值参数的研究——LAGFD数值模式群的应用

本文采用先进的ＬＡＧＦＤ风、浪数值模式和ＰＯＭ（ＰｒｉｎｃｅｔｏｎＯｃｅａｎＭｏｄｅｌ）三维海流模式对自１９４５～１９９５年间发生并影响南海东部海域的２９９个历史最强热带气旋过程进行数值后报,给出了南海东部部分海域（１９°～２３°Ｎ,１１３°～１１８°Ｅ）中１０００ｍ等深线内６０个点的多年一遇风、浪、流和水位极值,并简要分析了南海东部（１５°～２７°Ｎ,１０８°～１２２°Ｅ）的气候特征,为该海域区域性海洋环境研究与工程开发提供了基础参考数据。