SOME RESULTS OF APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICAL METHOD TO CLIMATE CHANGES AND SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION IN CHINA

In recent years, much attention has been paid to climate changes and short-term climate prediction, because the large area climate anomaly has, constantly occurred in many areas of China and of other places in the world since the 1960's. From 1974 to 1981, ten national meetings on climatology in China were held. More than 100 papers were presented at each of these meetings. Two collections of papers presented at these meetings have been printed. At present, in addition to research at meteorological institutes and universities, the research of climate changes and short-term climate prediction is also being carried out in the weather bureaus of the 30 provinces and autonomous regions (including Taiwan). The gaps in the research in this field in China have been filled.     

矿山边坡稳定性研究的回顾与展望

本文阐述了露天矿边坡工程的特点, 回顾了露天矿边坡稳定性研究及其取得的理论成果和进展, 指出露天矿边坡稳定性研究的特点, 提出相应的研究技术路线与方法。     

多点地质统计学建模研究进展

从精细油藏描述中地质建模的意义和现状入手,介绍了多点地质统计学建模研究现状及其与传统地质建模方法的差 异。以辽河盆地西部凹陷某蒸汽驱试验区为例,分析了多点地质统计学建模中建模的基础、训练图像的建立、多点地质统计学 建模与传统地质建模相比所具有的优势等内容。指出多点地质统计学在井间预测方面具有明显优于其他传统建模方法的特 点。在文献调研基础上,结合自身工作实践,探讨了多点地质统计学建模目前存在的问题和未来的发展方向。指出未来多点 地质统计学建模的发展方向主要包括多信息综合地质成因分析基础上的训练图像获取、多点地质统计学算法进行改进和完善 和多点地质统计学建模方法应用领域的扩大等。     

Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation, uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis.     

Variations of methane stable isotopic values from an Alpine peatland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Acta Geochimica - Isotopic signature is a powerful tool to discriminate methane (CH4) source types and constrain regional and global scale CH4 budgets. Peatlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are...     

勉略构造带新元古代洋盆俯冲作用：来自略阳地区纸房沟岩片火山岩锆石U- Pb年龄和Lu- Hf同位素的证据

纸房沟岩片位于勉略构造带略阳地区。通过细致的岩石学和地球化学研究,将纸房沟岩片内的火山岩分为拉斑玄武岩系列（Ⅰ类）和钙碱性火山岩系列（Ⅱ类）。Ⅰ类火山岩稀土配分曲线左倾,富Na贫P,整体具有N- MORB特点,形成于洋脊构造环境。相比Ⅰ类火山岩,Ⅱ类火山岩具有更高的SiO2(49.02％~61.86％)和K2O(0.32％~1.55％)含量,相对亏损Nb、Ta、P和Ti,形成于陆缘弧构造环境。Ⅱ类火山岩锆石Lu- Hf同位素测试结果显示,εHf(t)值主体为负值,介于-8.01~+0.77,表明其主要为古老地壳物质熔融成因。Ⅱ类火山岩LA- ICP- MS锆石U- Pb测年结果为854±3Ma(MSWD=0.12, n=30)、844±4Ma (MSWD=0.03, n=15),表明纸房沟岩片火山岩结晶时代为新元古代早中期。综合前人成果认为,纸房沟岩片火山岩为新元古代勉略洋盆俯冲的产物,俯冲作用一直持续到800Ma左右,该俯冲过程很可能是对全球性Rodinia超大陆聚合事件的响应。     

要重视海岸地区观赏植物资源的开发

列举了海岸地区常见的观赏植物群落,阐述了海岸地区观赏植物资源,对滨海旅游业如何利用海岸地区观赏植物资源提出了建议。     

Mineral characteristics and their geological significance of black shales in southeastern Ordos Basin by X-ray diffraction analysis

X-ray diffraction analysis of black shale of Upper Triassic Member Chang 7 of the Yanchang Formation in southeastern Ordos Basin showed that black shales were deposited in brackish, strongly reducing, semi-deep-deep lacustrine facies, and mainly composed of quartz, feldspar, carbonate （dolomite）, clay minerals （illite and il- lite/smectite） and a certain amount of pyrite. The mineral composition characteristics of this set of black shales are similar to those of highly productive shale gas in North America, for example shallow burial, low clay mineral and abundant brittle mineral, so the strata are conducive to the development of cracks and fractures. Thus, this area is favorable for shale oil/gas exploration and development.     

Late Eocene–early Miocene provenance evolution of the Crocker Fan in the southern South China Sea

There are many large-scale Cenozoic sedimentary basins with plentiful river deltas, deep-water fans and carbonate platforms in the southern South China Sea. The Crocker Fan was deposited as a typical submarine fan during the late Eocene–early Miocene, and stretches extensively across the entire Sarawak–Sabah of the northern Borneo area. However, systematic analyses are still lacking regarding its sediment composition and potential source suppliers. No consensus has been reached yet on the provenance evolution and sedimentary infilling processes, which seriously impeded the oil-and-gas exploration undertakings. By combining with sedimentary-facies identification, heavy mineral assemblages, elemental geochemistry and detrital zircon U-Pb dating, this paper aims to generalize an integrated analysis on the potential provenance terranes and restore source-to-sink pathways of the Crocker Fan. In general, the Crocker Fan was initially formed over the Cretaceous–lower/middle Eocene Rajang Group by an angular Rajang unconformity. The continual southward subduction of the proto-South China Sea resulted in magmatic activities and subsequent regional deformation and thrusting along the Lupar Line in the northern Borneo. The lowermost Crocker sequence is featured by a thick conglomerate layer sourced from in-situ or adjacent paleo-uplifts. From the late Eocene to the early Miocene, the Crocker Fan was constantly delivered with voluminous detritus from the Malay Peninsula of the western Sundaland. The Zengmu Basin was widely deposited with delta plain and neritic facies sediments, while the Brunei-Sabah Basin, to the farther east, was ubiquitously characterized by turbiditic sequences. The Crocker Fan successions are overall thick layers of modest-grained sandstones, which formed high-quality reservoirs in the southern South China Sea region.     

Compact and tunable mid-infrared source based on a 2 μm dual-wavelength KTiOPO4 intracavity optical parametric oscillator

Using a double resonant KTiOPO₄ (KTP) intracavity optical parametric oscillator operating at degenerated point of 2 μm, we demonstrate a unique mid-infrared source based on difference frequency generation in GaSe crystal. The output tuning range is 8.42-19.52 μm, and a peak power of 834 W for type-I phase matching scheme and 730 W for type-II phase matching scheme are achieved. Experimental results show that this oscillator is a good alternative to the generator of a compact and tabletop mid-infrared radiation with a widely tunable range.