孕震系统中的1/f噪声行为

根据自组织临界现象理论,研究7海城、唐山等7个大地震前、后中小地震的活动特征,计算了不同孕震时期地震活动的功率谱特征.初步结果表明描述地震活动的谱幂律指数p值在大震发生前有明显的增高倾向.主震前一年及主震当年,p值一般落在闪变噪声的谱域,其他时间一般很小.最后讨论了地震孕育的物理过程及孕震系统的稳定性.     

Vertical dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of urban lower boundary layer and its relationship with aerosol concentration over Beijing

By utilizing observational data from a 325 m tower of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on March 19-29, 2001 and August 11-25, 2003, a comprehensive study was conducted on the vertical dynamical and thermodynamic characteristics of the urban lower boundary layer (ULBL) and its relationship with aerosol concentration over Beijing. Firstly, a comparative analysis was made on the gradient data (wind, temperature and humidity), ultrasonic data (atmospheric turbulences) and air-quality observations at different tower heights (47, 120 and 280 m). Secondly, a diagnosis was made to reveal the major features of normalized variances of velocity and temperature, turbulence kinetic energy as well as their relationship with aerosol concentrations. Furthermore, the characteristics of the ULBL vertical structure and the TSP concentration/distribution variations during a sand/dust weather process were also analyzed. The outcome of the study showed that under unstable stratification, the normalized variances of velocity (σu/u*, σv/u*, σw/u*) and temperature (σT/T*) at 47 and 120 m heights fit the Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) framework and the fitting formulas were given out accordingly. According to the stratification parameter (z′/L), the stable ULBL could be divided into 2 zones. With z′/L<0.1, it was a weakly stable zone and MOS framework was applicable. The other was a highly stable zone with z′/L>0.1 and the normalized velocity variances tended to increase along with higher stability, but it remained constant for normalized temperature variances. At daytime, the near-surface layer includes two heights of 47 and 120 m, while 280 m has been above it. The ULBL analysis in conjunction with a sand/dust weather process in Beijing in March 2001 indicated that the maximum concentration of Total Suspended Particulates (TSP) at 320 m reached 913.3 μg/m3 and the particles were transported from the upper to lower ULBL, which was apparently related to the development process of a low-level jet and its concomitant strong sinking motion.     

数据空间磁异常模量三维反演

强剩磁的存在通常导致了总磁化强度方向未知,进而影响了磁异常的反演和解释.磁异常模量是一种受磁化方向影响小的转换量,可以在强剩磁条件下通过反演三维磁化强度大小分布来推测场源分布状态.我们提出了一种数据空间磁异常模量反演算法来减少剩磁的影响.与标准的模型空间L2范数正则化反演方法相比,我们的方法有两个优点:一是无需搜索正则化参数(需要反复求解非线性反演问题),因而可以减少计算时间;二是反演结果更加聚焦,深度分辨率更高,我们对此进行了原因分析.通过模型和实测数据测试证明了该算法的有效性和更好的反演效果.     

Experimental and modeling study on Cr(VI) transfer from soil into surface runoff

With the development of modern agriculture, large amount of fertilizer and pesticide outflow from farming land causes great waste and serious pollution to surface water and groundwater, and threatens ecological environment and even human life. In this paper, laboratory experiments are conducted to simulate adsorbed Cr(VI) transfer from soil into runoff. A two-layer in-mixing analytical model is applied to analyze laboratory experimental results. A data assimilation (DA) method via the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used to update parameters and improve modeling results. In comparison with the experimental data, DA updated modeling results are much better than those without the updating. To make predictions better, the inflation method with a constant inflation factor via DA method was used to compensate the fast decrease of ensemble spread partially related to filter inbreeding. Based on the used rainfall and relevant physical principles, the updated value of the incomplete mixing coefficient γ is about 14.0 times of the value of the incomplete mixing coefficient α in experiment 1 and about 7.4 times in experiment 2, while the difference between the flow rate of runoff and infiltration is not so large even after reaching stable infiltration condition. The results indicate the loss of Cr(VI) in soil solute is mainly due to infiltration, rather than surface runoff. With the increase of mixing layer depth, soil adsorption capacity will increase and the loss of soil solute will decrease. The study results provide information for reducing and even preventing the agricultural nonpoint source pollution.     

Circulation background of climate patterns in the past millennium: Uncertainty analysis and re-reconstruction of ENSO-like state

The question of whether or not global warming has paused since more than ten years ago, namely "warming hiatus", has attracted the attention of climate science community including the IPCC. Some authors have attributed the "warming hiatus" to the internal changes in the climate system, i.e., the recombination of ocean-atmosphere circulations. Therefore, it is necessary to propose higher requirements on reconstructing circulation background of climate change for the past millennium. However, the analyses of changes in atmospheric circulation over the last millennium as well as the conclusions of related regional climate patterns are so widely different and contradictory, bringing uncertainties to our understanding of regional even global climate change to a great extent. On the other hand, in the last 10 years the high-precision U/Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope ratio(δ~(18)O) sequences provided an accurate chronological frame for the paleoclimate study of the middle and late Pleistocene, in which all authors from China took the Chinese stalagmite δ~(18)O as the summer monsoon index without exception. However, this point of view misleads the climate scientists into thinking that the stalagmite δ~(18)O can be as the proxy of precipitation amount. Nevertheless, it is well known that all of these records have a lot in common in the low frequency trend. However, most sequences cannot be calibrated by instrumental precipitation records, and thus the uncertainty of the climate research framework of China and even of the world has increased. Therefore, it is imperative for climatology to clarify the origin of contradiction and to reduce the uncertainty as early as possible. On the basis of analyzing the significance of stalagmite δ~(18)O in the monsoon regions of China, the author tries to propose a new circulation proxy in this paper: integrating the Chinese stalagmite oxygen isotope sequence to reconstruct the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, i.e., the large-scale ENSO-like state over the past millennium. Furthermore, the author speculates that it was warm in the modern times and the Medieval Period, but the circulation recombination was different in both periods. And this inference could be supported by the longer record since Last Glacial Maximum. In other words, the attribution analysis of the identical low-frequency trends of Chinese stalagmite δ~(18)O on a large scale shows that the ENSO-like state controls the climate change in the monsoon regions of China at different time scales(from interannual to century or even longer time scales). Wherein the important connection of circulations is the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), that is to say, besides the interannual and decadal time scales, the WPSH would possess the circulation mode on longer timescales. For example, we may discuss the change of the WPSH in the whole Holocene epoch, i.e., the half precession period. These discussions could make sense to the study of not only the paleoclimate but also the modern climate.     

青藏高原东北缘M_s≥6.0强震活动特征及未来形势研究

2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震打破了青藏高原东北缘地区自2003年以来近十年的6级平静,该地震的意义及该区未来震情发展受到了地震学家的关注.本文运用Morlet小波变换分析了1875-2013年青藏高原东北缘MS≥6.0强震活动的周期特征,结果表明该区强震存在2～3年、8～10年、25～30年等尺度的显著周期;1977年以来青藏高原东北缘地区强震活动频度虽然正常但活动强度处于一个相对较低的阶段.在讨论了岷县漳县6.6级地震的发震背景基础上,认为该地震在青藏高原东北缘强震活动长时间较弱的背景下发生,可能是该区强震活动强弱的一个拐点,未来该区强震活动的频度与强度有增加的趋势.研究结果对该区震情跟踪工作有一定的参考价值.     

黄土覆盖山地对岷县、漳县M_s6.6地震余震动力响应的影响

2013年7月22日岷县、漳县MS6.6地震发生后,我们立刻在极震区架设三台K2强震动记录仪器,以了解地震对黄土覆盖山地的影响.截至8月11日共获取地震记录172个（516条）,ML≥3.0的地震48个,最大震级ML4.4,最大加速度值65.9 gal.我们从永星台阵的强余震观测资料中,选取震级较大的余震记录进行分析,经过初步处理,分别读取各个台站的地表最大加速度值,由于观测地区的黄土覆盖层较薄,土质松软,永星村台、永星小学台这两个台的加速度记录,不能与大竜村台的记录直接比较,我们将观测记录进行傅里叶分析,统计其优势频率,展示部分典型记录的傅里叶谱发现,黄土对高频成分的吸收作用不可忽视,最大加速度值随震中距的增大而衰减迅速.在近场情况下,地表最大加速度对震中距十分敏感,所以无法直接对比不同地形对于地表加速度的影响,分析结果表明：大竜村台优势频率为5.2 Hz;永星村台优势频率为4.1 Hz;永星小学台优势频率为5.3 Hz,注意到位于山脚下的大竜村测点为基岩,加速度记录的优势频率自然较高,而位于山顶的永星村是黄土地基,但是此地的加速度记录的优势频率明显高于山腰记录,几乎与基岩台基的优势频率相当.宏观调查也表明：低频率、高烈度对于房屋的破坏力更大.ML3.8地震观测表明,地表加速度值随震中距的增大而迅速衰减,距离最近的大竜村台（基岩台址）获取的加速度记录北南向最大,另外两个分向的加速度记录也大于较远的两个流动台的记录.基岩台北南向比垂直向要大,和这次地震的震源机制（逆冲兼走滑）相关.地形影响依然存在,本次观测台阵中,位于山顶的永星村观测记录的傅里叶谱,明显高于山腰的记录,地表最大加速度值也稍高于山腰观测,由于地形相差不够大,规律性也不太明显.本次观测结果和以往在孤立山峰的观测情况略有不同,一是记录地震的震级偏小,而观测距离又偏近,震中距的影响可能超过地形因素的影响程度,所以其原因更加复杂,有待进一步研究.     

新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力指标体系的建立与区域差异初探

从新疆地区地震活动性、灾害背景及区域协同联动应急模式出发,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性及区域特性等原则的基础上,采用层次分析法建立了县级行政单元的地震应急能力评价指标体系;继而建立了基于基础设施条件、基础人力物力财力、(县级)专项能力和专项经验及基础环境背景4个一类指标集的县(市)绝对地震应急能力综合评价模型,并根据新疆地区4类人员问卷调查资料,计算和分析了样本支持条件下各指标的权重及结果,将其应用在新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力等级划分中。结果表明,地震应急能力的空间分布格局的产生与区域经济发展水平和地理位置等方面所具备的优势是相适应的,安居富民工程对提升区域地震应急能力发挥了重要作用,少数民族聚集区应急能力有待加强,寒旱、高海拔地区等特殊地理因素影响不可忽视。     

P-wave attenuation anisotropy in TI media and its application in fracture parameters inversion

The existence of aligned fractures in fluid-saturated rocks leads to obvious attenuation anisotropy and velocity anisotropy. Attenuation anisotropy analysis can be applied to estimate fracture density and scale, which provide important information for reservoir identification. This paper derives P-wave attenuation anisotropy in the ATI media where the symmetry axis is in the arbitrary direction theoretically and modifies the spectral ratio method to measure attenuation anisotropy in the ATI media, thus avoiding a large measurement error when applied to wide azimuth or full azimuth data. Fracture dip and azimuth can be estimated through attenuation anisotropy analysis. For small-scale fractures, fracture scale and fracture density can be determined with enhanced convergence if velocity and attenuation information are both used. We also apply the modified spectralratio method to microseismic field data from an oilfield in East China and extract the fracture dip through attenuation anisotropy analysis. The result agrees with the microseismic monitoring.     

Enhancement of Seismic Data Processing and Interpretation of Fracture Zones on the Upper Part of Granitic Basement in Cuu Long Basin,Vietnam

The fractured granite basement is the primary oil and gas reservoir in the Cuu Long Basin, Vietnam. Due to the complexity of this nonlayered unconventional target, combined with complicated fault and fracture systems, the seismic data quality near and within the basement section is very low. For this reason, it is important to apply improved seismic data processing workflows, filtering and migration techniques, as wells as attribute processing methods to enhance the imaging quality.Our studies show that applying different types of filters, including the f-k, Radon transform and Tau-P, improves signal to noise ratio, removing multiples, revealing basement’s top and its related fractured and fault zones. In addition, the application of multi-arrival-solution migration algorithms, such as Kirchhoff Migration and Controlled Beam Migration, provides improved imaging for identifying basement top and faults and fractures within the basement. Furthermore, the application of seismic attributes such as curvature, apparent dip, or energy gradient, is important in locating faults and fractures, whereas mapping of intensity and orientation of such structures assists the delineation of “sweet spots” and assists the planning of exploration.