A high-resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled downscaling of the present climate over California

A fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model system that consists of the regional spectral model and the regional ocean modeling system for atmosphere and ocean components, respectively, is applied to downscale the present climate (1985–1994) over California from a global simulation of the Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3). The horizontal resolution of the regional coupled modeling system is 10 km, while that of the CCSM3 is at a spectral truncation of T85 (approximately 1.4°). The effects of the coupling along the California coast in the boreal summer and winter are highlighted. Evaluation of the sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature climatology shows that alleviation of the warm bias along the California coast in the global model output is clear in the regional coupled model run. The 10-m wind is also improved by reducing the northwesterly winds along the coast. The higher resolution coupling effect on the temperature and specific humidity is the largest near the surface, while the significant impact on the wind magnitude appears at a height of approximately 850-hPa heights. The frequency of the Catalina Eddy and its duration are increased by more than 60 % in the coupled downscaling, which is attributed to enhanced offshore sea-breeze. Our study indicates that coupling is vital to regional climate downscaling of mesoscale phenomena over coastal areas.     

Assessment of future climate change over East Asia due to the RCP scenarios downscaled by GRIMs-RMP

This study assesses future climate change over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system—Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by two types of future climate scenarios produced by the Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HG2); the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report (AR5). Analyses for the current (1980–2005) climate are performed to evaluate the RMP’s ability to reproduce precipitation and temperature. Two different future (2006–2050) simulations are compared with the current climatology to investigate the climatic change over East Asia centered in Korea. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of precipitation and temperature. The spatial distribution of the simulated large-scale features and precipitation by the RMP is generally less reflective of current climatic conditions than that is given by the HG2, but their inter-annual variations in East Asia are better captured by the RMP. Furthermore, the RMP shows higher reproducibility of climate extremes including excessive heat wave and precipitation events over South Korea. In the future, strong warming is distinctly coupled with intensified monsoonal precipitation over East Asia. In particular, extreme weather conditions are increased and intensified over South Korea as follows: (1) The frequency of heat wave events with temperature greater than 30 °C is projected to increase by 131 and 111 % in the RCP 8.5 and 4.5 downscaling, relative to the current climate. (2) The RCP 8.5 downscaling shows the frequency and variability of heavy rainfall to increase by 24 and 31.5 %, respectively, while the statistics given by the RCP 4.5 downscaling are similar to those of the current climate.     

结合地形因子与分层策略的喀斯特地区无人机影像分类

西南喀斯特山区地形起伏较大,地物分布较为破碎,致使传统的光谱特征一次分类方法的精度较低。本文基于高分辨率无人机正射影像和地形指标,充分利用无人机遥感影像空间特征、光谱特征、纹理特征及地形特征,采取面向对象CART决策树算法与分层策略提取了研究区土地覆盖类型。研究表明,结合空间地形因子和分层策略的方法减少了破碎区地物间的相干扰,故具有较高的分类精度,总体分类精度达91.2%,Kappa系数为0.87,较传统一次分类精度提高了9.8%,Kappa系数提高了0.13。该方法对西南喀斯特地区土地覆盖解译精度较好,可为土地利用监测提供参考。     

GNSS约束的MERSI/FY-3A PWV校准方法EI北大核心CSCD

精确的水汽信息对于短临天气预警和长期气候监测具有重要意义。本文针对搭载在我国第2代极轨卫星风云三号A星(FY-3A)上中分辨率光谱成像仪(medium-resolution spectral imager,MERSI)获取水汽精度较低的现状,提出一种GNSS约束的MERSI/FY-3A PWV校准方法。首先,对MERSI/FY-3A的PWV段产品进行处理得到水汽日产品,并利用GNSS和无线电探空(radiosonde,RS)数据对其进行评估;然后,根据PWV的季节分布特性,构建GNSS约束的MERSI/FY-3A PWV季节自适应校准模型;最后,分别利用GNSS、RS和再分析资料对校准后的MERSI/FY-3A水汽进行对比,验证提出方法的有效性。研究表明:本文提出的PWV校准方法,能够有效改善MERSI/FY-3A水汽日产品和旬产品的精度,改善率分别为58.63%和68.72%。该方法可为遥感水汽快速校准研究提供重要的理论依据。     

GNSS对流层水汽监测研究进展与展望EI北大核心CSCD

对流层是近地空间环境中与人类活动联系最为密切的大气层,而水汽是低层大气圈中最重要的组成部分之一。尽管水汽在对流层中所占比例较小,但在一系列天气和多种气候变化中都扮演着重要角色。随着全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)的快速发展,GNSS对流层水汽监测成为重要的研究和应用方向。本文系统介绍了GNSS多维水汽监测及其在相关方面应用的研究现状和进展。GNSS水汽监测研究方面,当前主要集中在二维大气可降水量监测和三维湿折射率/水汽密度廓线反演两部分;GNSS水汽应用研究方面,当前主要包括定位、短临降雨及旱涝监测、数值同化预报等。     

利用TSVD参数估值变化特性确定算法截断参数

TSVD是大地测量病态问题解算的常用有效方法。影响TSVD解算效果的关键因素是截断参数,现有截断参数确定方法可提供有效的截断参数,但仍难以给出最优截断参数。以均方误差最小为准则确定截断参数是一种理论依据较充分的截断参数确定方法,但均方误差计算所需的模型参数真值在实际应用中无法获得,导致该方法难以给出理论最优截断参数。鉴于此,本文研究了基于均方误差影响下(方差与偏差联合影响)参数估值变化特性的TSVD截断参数确定方法。通过TSVD依次截掉小奇异值,获得奇异值截掉前后的方差与参数估值变化,利用两者变化分析确定偏差影响,避免依赖参数真值计算偏差,从而确定出均方误差最小理论下的截断参数。数值与应用试验结果表明,本文方法确定的截断参数可有效改善TSVD解算效果,是一种行之有效的截断参数确定方法。     

基于SBAS-InSAR技术的中巴公路(公格尔墓士塔格段)地质体缓慢变形识别研究

中巴公路沿线地质灾害多发,通过微小变形对于其沿线地质灾害进行早期识别是一种重要的防灾措施。本文以中巴公路公格尔山至墓士塔格山段为研究区,选用2007年7月12日至2011年1月20日获取的16景PALSAR合成孔径雷达数据,采用小基线集干涉测量技术(SBAS-InSAR,Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar)进行了变形干涉计算,识别并分析了沿线地质体的变形情况:(1)冰川运动与冰川泥石流作为沿线最主要的地质灾害,变形相对较大,较易识别,有效PS点主要分布在前缘冰碛物部分,反映为正负大变形相间的高异常值点团,其中公格尔山与墓士塔格山山麓的冰碛物运动最为显著; (2)沿线较软弱顺坡结构岩体发育,且风化严重,稳定性较差,易形成溜石坡灾害,表现为顺坡负异常变形; (3)宽谷区PS点变形以正值和较小的负值为主,该区域主要为底部冰水堆积物,上部洪积物,冰川融水补给充足,土体水分含量较高,可能产生冻胀变形,同时也可能存在斜坡重力梯度方向的变形,二者变形合成在测量结果上表现为视线向的正异常; (4)中巴公路主要在湖盆和洪积扇上展布,推测由于不均匀分布软土的变形,使较为刚性的公路部分路段产生了下沉; (5)SBAS-InSAR的高精度变形观测覆盖范围广,对于线性工程周围地质体稳定性的识别具有很好的应用前景。     

温度控制下的煤层气储层物性动态演化研究

为研究热对煤储层的改造作用,采用不同煤级具有代表性的12件煤样。考虑煤级差异、温度作用差异以及核磁共振(NMR)在研究孔隙流体中的技术优势等,对煤样进行了显微组分、镜质体反射率、孔渗测试以及孔隙结构的压汞和NMR实验,研究了煤储层核磁共振特征、T2谱响应特征、孔径分布、核磁共振孔隙度及核磁渗透率、可动流体等,同时对比了不同变质程度煤储层孔隙结构特征及其对煤层气储层物性的控制作用。温度变化下的煤储层物性研究结果表明:热的作用对各煤级煤储层孔隙度都有改善作用,但是对低煤级影响最大,其次为中煤级,最后为高煤级煤储层。温度对不同煤级煤岩的渗透性影响迥异。高挥发份烟煤受热后渗透率增加了一个数量级。低挥发份烟煤受热后渗透率则下降了一个数量级,这应与煤岩热膨胀性有关。无烟煤渗透率总体变化不明显,说明热作用对高煤级煤储层改造意义不大。     

三维数值模拟在地下工程围岩二次应力-形变场研究中的应用

地下工程开挖时常出现围岩稳定性问题[1],而研究围岩稳定性问题的关键之一是围岩开挖后的二次应力-形变场研究.由于受诸多不确定因素的影响,对此问题的认识和研究面临一定难题.工程实践证明,借助三维数值模拟方法来研究这一问题具有较好效果.     

中资企业在澳大利亚矿业投资总体形势与前景

介绍了澳大利亚的自然条件、矿业开发条件、矿业开发存在的问题、矿业投资现状等,在此基础上对在澳大利亚进行矿业开发的主要风险进行了分析,并对在澳矿业开发投资的有关方面提出了建议。认为当代中国投资者只有在认清当前形势,理清投资思路、优化投资策略的前提下,才能在激烈的国际矿业投资竞争中取得优势,并树立中国企业在世界经济舞台上的崭新形象。