改进的灰色模型在中国能源消费及其CO2排放预测中的研究

中国高速的经济发展导致了快速的能源消费和地球温暖化气体的排放量。本文应用灰色理论建立了中国的终端能源消费量的动态预测模型，同时应用等维递补及带有马尔科夫链符号估计的残差修正，对原始模型进行了改进。后验检验的结果证明了改进的预测模型具有较高的计算精度。预测结果表明，两种经济发展情况（高速及低速）下，从2000年到2030年期间的终端能源消费量的平均增长率将分别达到3．06％和2．18％，2030年CO2 的排放量将分别达到2000年的 2． 15及 1．60倍。其中工业及居民生活的能源消费量的增加速度快于其他部门。这表明了中国将要加快其工业化及都市化的进程．终端消费中，煤炭的消费量所占的比例将要逐年减少，而电力的比例则将逐年增大。     

USING UPLAND FOREST IN SHIMENTAI NATURE RESERVE,CHINA*

ABSTRACT. The Shimentai Nature Reserve in Yingde County, Guangdong Province, China, established recently in a subtropical upland forest area, has served for ages as an essential and customary source of livelihood for local people. Assessment of forest usage indicates heavy reliance by villagers on its diversified biotic resources. This forest dependence, associated with socioeconomic factors such as distance from village, ethnic origin, out‐migration of rural youngsters, and a local tradition of conservation, is unlikely to decline in the near future. The reserve management recognizes the need to address the livelihood issues of local people and to win local support. A pragmatic adherence to provincial and higher‐level policies that exclude forest‐tapping activities could lead to more people‐versus‐park conflicts, which would dilute fundamental conservation objectives. A more enlightened and localized approach that nurtures a synergy between limited forest use and conservation while helping to develop new income sources could furnish workable alternatives.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGING PESTICIDE LOSSES IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

1 INTRODUCTION Agricultural use of pesticides has been recognized as one of the important non-point pollution sources in the world, and the pesticide application to agricultural lands has led to large amounts of residues discharged into surface water through runoff (Leonard, 1990). There have been growing concerns about the fate and transport of pesticides in agricultural lands, due to the associated adverse impacts on water environment and human health (Agassi et al., 1995; Ng and Clegg…     

Permeability-porosity Relationships in Rocks Subjected to Various Evolution Processes

— It is well known that there is no “universal” permeability-porosity relationship valid in all porous media. However, the evolution of permeability and porosity in rocks can be constrained provided that the processes changing the pore space are known. In this paper, we review observations of the relationship between permeability and porosity during rock evolution and interpret them in terms of creation/destruction of effectively and non-effectively conducting pore space. We focus on laboratory processes, namely, plastic compaction of aggregates, elastic-brittle deformation of granular rocks, dilatant and thermal microcracking of dense rocks, chemically driven processes, as a way to approach naturally occurring geological processes. In particular, the chemically driven processes and their corresponding evolution permeability-porosity relationships are discussed in relation to sedimentary rocks diagenesis.     

Effect of Sliding Rate on the Activity of Acoustic Emission During Stable Sliding

--The mechanical and statistical characteristics of acoustic emission (AE) events during stable sliding are investigated through a laboratory experiment using a granite specimen with a pre-cut fault. Numerous AE events are found to be generated on the pre-cut fault, indicating that microscopically unstable fracture occurs during macroscopically stable sliding. The composite focal mechanism solution of AE events is determined from the first motion directions of P-waves. The determined mechanism is consistent with the double-couple one expected for the slip on the pre-cut fault. The source radii of large AE events are estimated to be about 10 mm from the widths of the first P-wave pulses. These indicate that the AE events are generated by shear fracture whose faulting area is a part of the pre-cut fault plane. The occurrence of AE events as a stochastic process approximately obeys the Poisson process, if the effect of mutually dependent events consti tuting clusters is corrected. The observed amplitude-frequency relation of AE events approximately follows a power law for a limited amplitude range. As the macroscopic sliding rate increases, the number of AE events per unit sliding distance decreases. This rate dependence of the AE activity is qualitatively consistent with the observation that the real area of contact between sliding surfaces decreases with an increase in the sliding rate as reported in the literature.     

Analytical Model for Permeability Evolution in Microcracking Rock

— Analytical expressions to predict the enhancement of permeability due to stress-induced microcracking in initially low porosity rock are presented. A fracture mechanical microcrack model is employed to derive integrated effective hydraulic variables as a function of stress, which are then used to calculate the evolution of permeability using the statistically-based Dienes model. The model enables determination of permeability enhancement as a function of two loading parameters and three material parameters. Results are in reasonable agreement with experimental measurements and indicate that appreciable increases in permeability can be anticipated during brittle failure. The analytical nature of the model makes it easily incorporatable into numerical models that require quantification of the permeability evolution as a function of stress, for which there is currently no law.     

Exploration and discovery in Yellowstone Lake: results from high-resolution sonar imaging, seismic reflection profiling, and submersible studies

‘No portion of the American continent is perhaps so rich in wonders as the Yellow Stone’ (F.V. Hayden, September 2, 1874)Discoveries from multi-beam sonar mapping and seismic reflection surveys of the northern, central, and West Thumb basins of Yellowstone Lake provide new insight into the extent of post-collapse volcanism and active hydrothermal processes occurring in a large lake environment above a large magma chamber. Yellowstone Lake has an irregular bottom covered with dozens of features directly related to hydrothermal, tectonic, volcanic, and sedimentary processes. Detailed bathymetric, seismic reflection, and magnetic evidence reveals that rhyolitic lava flows underlie much of Yellowstone Lake and exert fundamental control on lake bathymetry and localization of hydrothermal activity. Many previously unknown features have been identified and include over 250 hydrothermal vents, several very large (>500 m diameter) hydrothermal explosion craters, many small hydrothermal vent craters (1–200 m diameter), domed lacustrine sediments related to hydrothermal activity, elongate fissures cutting post-glacial sediments, siliceous hydrothermal spire structures, sublacustrine landslide deposits, submerged former shorelines, and a recently active graben. Sampling and observations with a submersible remotely operated vehicle confirm and extend our understanding of the identified features. Faults, fissures, hydrothermally inflated domal structures, hydrothermal explosion craters, and sublacustrine landslides constitute potentially significant geologic hazards. Toxic elements derived from hydrothermal processes also may significantly affect the Yellowstone ecosystem.