基于贝叶斯网络的地下水环境系统决策管理研究

应用贝叶斯网络解决地下水环境管理中具有不确定性的多目标决策问题,通过对决策变量氮肥施用量以及灌溉模式的调控,减少水中的硝酸盐含量,达到既能有效改善水环境又不至使农民经济利益受到损害的目标。通过分析具体的地下水环境管理系统中变量间的相互关系,构建描述变量间不确定性关系的贝叶斯网络模型,其中包括表示其依赖关系的有向无环图和表示其具体概率依赖程度的条件概率表。并在多个水环境管理目标均达到最优的前提下进行概率推理,得到决策变量氮肥施用量以及灌溉模式取不同值时目标变量的概率分布情况。最终确定出能使所有目标均达到最优的合理的水环境管理决策:(1)使用喷灌,将氮肥施用量控制在0.01~0.03 kg/m2;(2)使用漫灌,将氮肥施用量控制在0.01~0.02 kg/m2。     

Rapid Identification and Emergency Investigation of Surface Ruptures and Geohazards Induced by the M_s 7.1 Yushu Earthquake

<正>The rapid identification based on InSAR technology was proved to be effective in our emergency investigation of surface ruptures and geohazards induced by the Yushu earthquake.The earthquake-generating fault of the Yushu earthquake is the Yushu section of the Garze-Yushu faults zone.It strikes NWW-NW,23 km long near the Yushu County seat,dominated by left-lateral strike slip,and appearing as a surface rupture zone.The macroscopic epicenter is positioned at Guo-yang-yan -song-duo of Gyegu Town(33°03'11"N,96°51'26"E),where the co-seismic horizontal offset measured is 1.75 m.Geohazards induced by the Yushu earthquake are mainly rockfalls,landslides,debris flows, and unstable slopes.They are controlled by the earthquake-generating fault and are mostly distributed along it.There are several geohazard chains having been established,such as earthquake,canal damage,soil liquefying,landslide-debris flow,earthquake,soil liquefying,roadbed deformation,etc.In order to prevent seismic hazards,generally,where there is a visible surface rupture induced by the Yushu earthquake,reconstruction should be at least beyond 20 m,on each side,from it.Sufficient attention should also be given to potential geohazards or geohazard chains induced by the earthquake.     

谱分解技术在预测煤层岩浆岩侵入区的应用

岩浆岩的侵入问题一直严重影响着煤矿的安全和高效生产,如何准确地划分出岩浆岩侵入区范围是急需解决的关键问题之一。通过对正演模型数据和实际数据的谱分解分析,发现正常煤层与岩浆岩侵入煤层间存在着明显的频谱差异。正常煤层反射波在其主频对应的谱分解切片上的能量较强,而岩浆岩侵入煤层反射波在同一谱分解切片上的能量较弱。对于实际煤层数据来说,通过钻井标定,即可以定量、准确地划分出岩浆岩侵入区的范围。以大屯煤电公司徐庄煤矿为例,对7煤层谱分解沿层切片与振幅沿层切片进行了对比解释,结果证实谱分解技术对预测煤层岩浆侵入范围是切实可行的。     

土地综合整治动态管理信息系统构建分析

在调研山东省土地综合整治现状的基础上提出了当前工作中存在的问题,并对建立土地综合整治动态管理信息系统的必要性进行了分析。提出基于3S技术、ArcGIS软件平台、计算机技术、网络技术,构建土地综合整治动态管理信息系统的设想,有利于提升山东省土地综合整治项目管理水平。     

一些有机物对Ph、Zn、Cu迁移与沉积作用的实验研究

根据一些有机物在成矿溶液中存在的可能性,作者相继就中性、酸性与碱性氨基酸,以及酒石酸在铅、锌、铜迁移与沉积过程中的作用,进行了模拟实验研究。结果表明,在从９０～２１０℃范围内,酸性氨基酸在热卤水中的存在,比中性和碱性氨基酸更有利于铅、锌、铜的活化、迁移。而酒石酸在热卤水中的存在,只在９０℃或更低时,才是铅、锌等金属活化、迁移的最佳温度条件。且无论哪种有机物在热卤水中的存在,随作用时间及温度的变化,不同金属的活化、迁移明显不同。这表明,金属与氨基酸或其它有机物形成的易溶络合物,其稳定性不仅与金属、氨基酸等有机物的种类有关,而且还受温度的显著影响。     

An experimental study of effect of pre‐existing fabric on deformation of foliated mylonite at high temperature and pressure

We performed deformation experiments on a foliated mylonite under high temperature and pressure conditions in this study. To investigate the effect of pre‐existing fabric on the rheology of rocks, our samples were drilled from natural mylonite with the cylinder axis parallel to the foliation (PAR) and perpendicular to the foliation (PER). We performed 25 tests on seven PAR samples and 21 tests on seven PER samples at temperatures ranging from 600 to 890 °C, confining pressures ranging from 800 to 1400 MPa, and steady‐state strain rates of 1 × 10⁻⁴, 1 × 10⁻⁵ and 2.5 × 10⁻⁶ s⁻¹. In the temperatures of 600–700 °C, the deformation is accommodated by semi‐brittle flow, with the average stress exponent being 6–7 assuming power law flow; in the temperature range of 800–890 °C, deformation is mainly by plastic flow, with an average stress exponent of n = 3 and activation energies of Q = 354 ± 52 kJ/mol (PER and PAR samples). The experimental results show that the strengths of PER samples are higher than those of PAR samples. Deformation microstructures have been studied by optical and electron microscopy. The original foliation of PER samples is destroyed by deformation and replaced by a new foliation, but the deformation of PAR samples followed the original foliation. Electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements show a strong lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of the quartz c axis fabrics of the starting samples and deformed PER and PAR samples. However, the c axis fabric of quartz in experimentally deformed PER and PAR samples varied with temperature and strain rate is different from that seen in the starting mylonite sample. The initial quartz c axis fabric of the starting mylonite sample has been transformed into a new fabric during experimental deformation. Dehydration melting of biotite and hornblende occurred in both PER and PAR samples at temperatures of 800–890 °C. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同模式模拟的降水稳定同位素效应的比较和评估

利用引入水稳定同位素循环的ECHAM4、GISS E、HadCM3、MUGCM以及iAWBM的模拟数据,分析了全球降水中稳定同位素效应的空间分布特征,对不同模式的模拟结果之间以及模拟结果与GNIP（Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation）的实际监测结果之间进行了比较,旨在对稳定同位素大气环流模式的模拟有效性进行评价,改善对水循环中水稳定同位素效应的理解和认识。结果显示,5个模式均很好地再现了全球降水中平均δ18O和平均δ18O季节差的空间分布特征,降水中稳定同位素的温度效应、降水量效应的分布特点以及全球大气水线GMWL（Global Meteoric Water Line）均被很好地模拟出。比较而言,ECHAM4模拟的降水中的平均δ18O以及δ18O平均季节差的空间分布与GNIP的实际分布最接近,拟合水平也最高;ECHAM4、GISS E、MUGCM和iAWBM再现全球温度效应空间分布的能力较强,拟合水平大致相当;由iAWBM模拟的降水量效应空间分布与实际分布之间的相关性最强,5个模式模拟的与实测的δ18O/P相关系数符号相同的站点数大致位于同一水平;GISS E和iAWBM模拟的全球大气水线与实测的GMWL最接近。     

一种载人小行星探测轨道优化设计方法

给出了一种基于变比冲核电推进载人飞船探测小行星的轨道优化设计方法.首先基于双脉冲单圈Lambert轨道转移,对地球出发段和返回段进行搜索剪枝,再从两个可行区域中优选最佳飞行路径.设定"推进-滑行-推进"的分段飞行策略,以工质消耗最少为指标,利用混合法优化核电推进飞行轨迹,最后以分段优化参数为初值,基于整体任务约束将全飞行过程转化为非线性优化问题,将各飞行段进行拼接,获得整体参数优化解,并给出了数值和图形结果.     

A new lunar absolute control point: established by images from the landing camera on Chang'e-3

The establishment of a lunar control network is one of the core tasks in selenodesy, in which defining an absolute control point on the Moon is the most important step. However, up to now, the number of absolute control points has been very sparse. These absolute control points have mainly been lunar laser ranging retroreflectors, whose geographical location can be observed by observations on Earth and also identified in high resolution lunar satellite images. The Chang'e-3(CE-3) probe successfully landed on the Moon, and its geographical location has been monitored by an observing station on Earth. Since its positional accuracy is expected to reach the meter level, the CE-3 landing site can become a new high precision absolute control point. We use a sequence of images taken from the landing camera, as well as satellite images taken by CE-1 and CE-2, to identify the location of the CE-3 lander. With its geographical location known, the CE-3 landing site can be established as a new absolute control point, which will effectively expand the current area of the lunar absolute control network by 22%, and can greatly facilitate future research in the field of lunar surveying and mapping, as well as selenodesy.     

Data processing and initial results from the CE-3 Extreme Ultraviolet Camera

The Extreme Ultraviolet Camera(EUVC) onboard the Chang'e-3(CE-3)lander is used to observe the structure and dynamics of Earth's plasmasphere from the Moon. By detecting the resonance line emission of helium ions(He+) at 30.4 nm, the EUVC images the entire plasmasphere with a time resolution of 10 min and a spatial resolution of about 0.1 Earth radius(RE) in a single frame. We first present details about the data processing from EUVC and the data acquisition in the commissioning phase, and then report some initial results, which reflect the basic features of the plasmasphere well. The photon count and emission intensity of EUVC are consistent with previous observations and models, which indicate that the EUVC works normally and can provide high quality data for future studies.