活动断裂地震危险性的研究现状和展望

本文综述了活动断裂地震危险性研究的历史、发展现状、存在的问题及发展方向。在活动断裂地震危险性研究中,重点论述了在概率分析研究阶段地震复发模式、概率模型、断裂间相互作用以及最大震级的评估等问题,指出未来活动断裂地震危险性分析研究的主要发展方向是多学科资料和研究手段、动力环境分析和力学模型的引入。     

Fission Track Geochronology of Xiaonanchuan Pluton and the Morphotectonic Evolution of Eastern Kunlun since Late Miocene

Apatite fission track （AFT） thermochronology of seven samples from the Xiaonanchuan （小南川） pluton in the Kunlun （昆仑） pass area was carried out, for the purpose of determining the timing of cooling and the relation between the exhumation and the morphotectonic processes. The AFT ages yield low denudation rates of 0. 020--0. 035 mm/a during the late Miocene, which correspond to a stable geomorphic and weak tectonic uplifting environment. The low denudation rates can be considered as the approximate tectonic uplifting rates. The AFT geochronology shows puroxysmully rapid cooling since the Pliocene and an apparent material unroofing of more than 3 km in the Xiaonanchuan area. This was not the result of simple denudation. The rapid cooling was coupled with the intensive orogeny since the Pliocene, which was driven by tectonic uplifting. The accelerated relief building was accompanied by a series of faulting, which caused the basin and the valley formation and sinking. The space pattern of the AFT ages also shows differential uplifting, which decreases northwardly. This trend is supported by the regional AFT data, which indicate that the exhumation decreases northwardly in eastern Kunlun. This trend also exists in cast-west orientation from the western Kunlun range to the eastern. The uplif- ting trend is also supported by gcomorphic characteristics including the elevation and the relief differences well as the distribution of the Late Cenozoic volcanism.     

油气田遥感影像模型及油气综合远景预测研究

本文以线性体、环形体的油气田地质意义分析为基础,通过线、环共生组合规律及油气地质多因素的综合分析,提出了3个油气田遥感预测模型。利用所建立的遥感模型及其它地学模型,在济阳坳陷地区以遥感信息为主进行了微机综合油气远景预测,提出了若干远景区。实践证明,利用遥感信息进行构造分析的找油方法,对石油勘探具有重要意义,它具有简便和勘探成本低等优点。     

济南市城镇化与工业化耦合关系评价与分析

以济南市为样本,基于该市改革开放后历年的统计数据,采用国际上常用的IU、NU标准值法判断其城镇化与工业化的关系并进行分析.研究发现,济南市城镇化的发展由过去的严重滞后于工业化逐步趋向于与工业化发展相协调的状态;不同城市的自然环境和区位条件有差别,城镇化和工业化的发展又具有一定的地域性和时序性.因此,以城市为对象,探讨其城镇化与工业化的关系,既能丰富这一领域的理论研究,又能为城市的城镇化和工业化进程提供实践参考.     

2010年夏季北极海冰反照率的观测研究

雪和海冰作为北极地区反照率最高的地表类型,可以将大部分入射辐射能量反射回天空,其表面反照率的变化对整个地表-大气辐射平衡系统和全球气候变化都会有重要影响。在2010年中国第4次北极科学考察期间用ASD光谱仪对北极太平洋扇区不同类型的海冰表面反照率进行了现场测量,观测时段为7月27日至8月23日,地理范围在72°18′-87°20′N和152°34′-178°22′W之间。观测结果表明积雪覆盖海冰的反照率最高,干雪覆盖时均值达到0.82,融化的湿雪覆盖时反照率会有一定程度地降低。夏季北极地区存在大量融池,融池海冰按颜色划分为白冰,蓝冰和灰冰,白冰的平均反照率为0.54,蓝冰的为0.31,灰冰的只有0.20,融池水的反照率只有0.16。融池是北极夏季反照率变化的重要原因。     

Roadian–Wordian (Guadalupian, Middle Permian) global palaeobiogeography of brachiopods

A database of 4471 Roadian–Wordian (Guadalupian, Middle Permian) occurrences of 381 brachiopod genera in 44 different operational geographical units (stations) was analyzed by both Q-mode and R-mode quantitative methods. Four distinct brachiopod biogeographical realms and nine provinces, and 11 brachiopod associations are recognized. The Boreal Realm in the Northern Hemisphere includes the Verkolyman Province in the northern and northeastern Siberian Platform and the eastern European Province in the Ural seaway between the European and Siberian platforms. Both provinces are characterized by containing typical Boreal cold-water brachiopod associations. The Gondwanan Realm in the south also includes two provinces. The Austrazean Province in eastern Australia and New Zealand is probably the most stable province throughout the Permian and characterized by typical Gondwanan brachiopod associations. The Westralian Province centered in Western Australia is also characterized by typical Gondwanan brachiopods, but also demonstrates biogeographical links with the Tethyan stations. The Palaeoequatorial Realm located mainly in the palaeotropical zone contains highly diverse and abundant brachiopod faunas. Two regions/subrealms and four provinces are recognized within this realm. The North America Subrealm contains a distinct Grandian Province characterized by many endemic brachiopod genera and a few cold-water genera. East-central Alaska and Yukon Territory may constitute another brachiopod province. All the stations in the Tethyan Ocean (both Palaeotethys and Neotethys) constitute a distinct Asian–Tethyan Region/Subrealm and incorporate three different provinces. The Cathaysian Province is comprised of the stations in South China and its surrounding terranes/blocks and a few stations in the northern and western margin of the Palaeotethys. Two transitional provinces (Sino–Mongolian–Japanese Province and Cimmerian Province) in the northern and southern temperate zones are also recognizable. The brachiopod fauna from the Mino Belt in Japan is well distinguished from those from other regions, and is hence assigned to the palaeoceanic Panthalassan Realm. Principal coordinates analysis and minimum spanning tree analysis suggest that a latitude-related thermal gradient was the major control for the palaeobiogeography of Roadian–Wordian global brachiopod faunas and for the latitudinal of pattern of decreasing brachiopod generic diversities from the equator to the poles. In addition, geographic separation and oceanic currents may also have played some role in the spatial distribution of brachiopods during Roadian–Wordian times.     

城市化对江苏气候变化影响的数值模拟个例分析

利用MM5模式对2003年夏季6、7两个月典型区域气候极端事件进行数值模拟,研究城市化急剧扩张对区域气候极端事件的影响和可能机制.研究发现:苏南及邻近地区城市化区域的扩张,会引起区域降水分布的变化.在城市化区域,降水将减少,而在城市化的下风区会有局地的降水增加;同时,在苏南城市化区域中,太湖等湖泊的影响也很重要,会加强其邻近地区局地降水强度.城市化区域的地面气温有明显的上升,对高温天气的作用更大.城市化也会影响地面风场,阻挡穿越城市化区域的风;苏南沿海城市化区域扩张,会使海陆风环流增强,加大了海面向陆面的风.城市化区域的潜热通量明显减少,而感热通量显著增加.城市化增暖产生的局地热源,使城市化区域及邻近地区局地环流发生变化,增强了低层城市化区域向周边辐散的强度.随着高度的增加,城市化的影响也越来越小.     

豫东北主要农作物对气候变暖的响应

利用豫东北具有代表性的濮阳、南乐两个国家基本站1971-2000年的气象和农气观测资料,分析了气候变化趋势及其对农作物的影响,结果表明：濮阳和南乐30 a年平均气温呈逐年升高趋势,1993年后升高趋势明显。气候变暖使冬小麦播种期推延,返青提前,对冬小麦增产有利,也利于玉米生育期的延长和产量提高;终霜期明显提前,初霜期略推迟,霜期变短,使棉花平均生育期延长,霜后花率降低,对产量和质量提高有利。     

一次华南暴雨过程中不同区域降水特征的模拟分析

通过对2005年6月19-20日的一次华南大暴雨过程的诊断分析表明,本次降水过程的水汽来源有两个,一是来自于印度洋上的印度季风,另一个是来自于澳大利亚的东南信风.对不同暴雨中心的分析表明,福建北部的降水带为华南准静止锋锋面上的系统性降水,假相当位温的经向垂直剖面呈明显的Ω型结构,而广东河源附近的暴雨中心为暖区对流性降水,低层为强的不稳定.利用ARPS模式对这次暴雨过程进行了数值模拟,结果表明,锋面雨带主要来自于网格降水的贡献,而对流性降水主要来自于次网尺度降水的贡献.