金沙江流域降水和径流时空演变的非一致性分析

基于金沙江流域1966~2010年降水和径流资料,采用单变量Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势分析法、突变检验法和多变量MK法对金沙江流域近几十年来的降水和径流变化进行了非一致性分析。结果表明:金沙江流域年降水和年径流整体呈上升趋势,特别是从20世纪90年代之后增大趋势较为明显。其中金沙江流域中游以上区域的年降水通过显著性检验,上升趋势较为明显,而各个水文站点的年径流均未通过显著性检验,仅存在微弱的上升趋势。中游攀枝花站集水区域的面平均年降水趋势存在突变点,在1997年之后显著增加,而其年径流则不存在突变点,其他站点面平均年降水和年径流趋势都不存在突变。此外,中游龙街站集水区域的面平均年降水和年径流通过多变量MK显著性检验,表明龙街站降水和径流联合变量呈显著增加趋势。     

2013—2017年夏季东北冷涡下东北地区MCS的统计特征

利用2013—2017年6—8月FY-2E和FY-2G地球静止卫星相当黑体温度（Black Body Temperature,TBB）资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对我国夏季东北冷涡下东北地区MCS的分布和活动特征进行了统计分析,结果表明：（1） MCS的活动具有明显的月际变化和日变化特征,6月对流活动最活跃。MCS的主要移向是东、东北和东南,平均移动距离3.99个经纬距。（2） MCS成熟时刻的面积、偏心率和生命史均小于江淮地区以及中国中东部,云顶高度低于江淮地区,整个生命史表现出发展快消亡慢的特征,与江淮地区相反。（3）基于MCS的定义得到的Z标准,对2016—2017年的MCS作了统计分析并与J标准统计得到的MCS进行对比,得出,两种定义下的MCS环境场特征基本一致,主要表现为MCS多生成于500 hPa槽前和槽后,对流层高层MCS位于双急流之间靠近北支急流的辐散区,南侧急流高度在200 hPa,北侧的急流高度在250 hPa。低层,位于低空急流左侧,低涡南侧、东南侧,有较强的水汽和动量输送。槽前生成的MCS南侧中层存在垂直反环流向MCS输送干暖空气与位涡,槽后生成的MCS两侧均有大值位涡向其输送,同时北侧冷干空气的输送使锋区及上升运动加强,更有利于MCS的形成。（4）两种标准下的MCS造成的降水明显不同,在统计强降水方面Z标准要优于J标准。由于Z标准空间与时间尺度较小,统计得到的MCS较多;但同时会遗漏部分相对弱的MCS。     

Temporal and Spatial Scale Dependence of Precipitation Analysis over the Tropical Deep Convective Regime

Data from Goddard cumulus ensemble model experiment are used to study temporal and spatial scale dependence of tropical rainfall separation analysis based on cloud budget during Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment(TOGA COARE).The analysis shows that the calculations of model domain mean or time-mean grid-scale mean simulation data overestimate the rain rates of the two rainfall types associated with net condensation but they severely underestimate the rain rate of the rainfall type associated with net evaporation and hydrometeor convergence.     

EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND ITS DIURNAL VARIATION ON DIURNAL VARIATION OF RAINFALL: A PARTITIONING ANALYSIS BASED ON SURFACE RAINFALL BUDGET

The effects of sea surface temperature(SST) and its diurnal variation on diurnal variation of rainfall are examined in this study by analyzing a series of equilibrium cloud-resolving model experiments which are imposed with zero large-scale vertical velocity.The grid rainfall simulation data are categorized into eight rainfall types based on rainfall processes including water vapor convergence/divergence,local atmospheric drying/moistening,and hydrometeor loss/convergence or gain/divergence.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are insensitive to the increase in SST from 27°C to 29°C during the nighttime,whereas they are decreased during the daytime.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are decreased as the SST increases from 29°C to 31°C but the decreases are larger during the nighttime than during the daytime.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are decreased by the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST with diurnal difference of 1°C during the nighttime,but the decreases are significantly slowed down as the diurnal difference of SST increases from 1°C to 2°C.The rainfall contributions of the rainfall types with water vapor convergence are insensitive to the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST during the daytime.     

Effects of sea surface temperature, radiation, cloud microphysics, and diurnal variations on vertical structures of tropical tropospheric temperature: a two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving modeling study

The effects of sea surface temperature (SST), radiation, cloud microphysics, and diurnal variations on the vertical structure of tropical tropospheric temperature are investigated by analyzing 10 two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulation data. The increase of SST, exclusion of diurnal variation of SST, and inclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle, radiative effects of ice clouds, and ice microphysics could lead to tropical tropospheric warming and increase of tropopause height. The increase of SST and the suppression of its diurnal variation enhance the warming in the lower and upper troposphere, respectively, through increasing latent heat and decreasing IR cooling. The inclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle increases the tropospheric warming through increasing solar heating. The inclusion of cloud radiative effects increases tropospheric warming through suppressing IR cooling in the mid and lower troposphere and enhancing solar heating in the upper troposphere. The inclusion of ice microphysics barely increases warming in the mid and lower troposphere because the warming from ice radiative effects is nearly offset by the cooling from ice microphysical effects, whereas it causes the large warming enhancement in the upper troposphere due to the dominance of ice radiative effects. The tropopause height is increased mainly through the large enhancement of IR cooling.     

松花江流域气候变化及ECHAM5模式预估

 根据松花江流域1961-2000年观测气温、降水量资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式对该流域21世纪前50 a气候变化的预估结果,分析了松花江流域1961-2000年年平均气温和年降水量变化,并对21世纪前50 a气温和降水量变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,作为中国气候变暖区域响应的先锋,松花江流域年平均气温自1980年代初持续升高,升温幅度比较显著;年降水量在1961-2000年无明显增加或减少趋势,年代际差异也不大。相对于1961-1990年的气候场,21世纪前半叶,年平均气温仍将呈明显增加趋势,到2040年代升温幅度达1℃以上,年降水量变化趋势不显著,可能微弱增加,但冬季平均气温和冬季降水量都呈增加趋势,春季降水量也为增加趋势。     

Effects of time-dependent large-scale forcing, solar zenith angle, and sea surface temperature on time-mean tropical rainfall processes

Effects of time-dependent large-scale forcing (LSF), solar zenith angle (SZA), and sea surface temperature (SST) on time-mean rainfall processes during Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) are examined by conducting a control experiment and a series of sensitivity experiments with a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model. The model is forced by time-dependent LSF, SZA, and SST in the control experiment. The sensitivity experiments are forced only by either time-dependent LSF, or SZA, or SST while others are replaced with their time averages. When the model is imposed by time-dependent LSF, time dependence of SZA and SST has no discernable effect on surface rainfall, but it affects rainfall processes. The rainfall is reduced by 15% when the time-dependent LSF is replaced by its time mean. The reduction of rainfall is associated with the suppression of water vapor convergence as a result of low correlation between upward motion and water vapor variation.     

Responses of Vertical Structures in Convective and Stratiform Regions to Large-Scale Forcing during the Landfall of Severe Tropical Storm Bilis （2006）

The responses of vertical structures,in convective and stratiform regions,to the large-scale forcing during the landfall of tropical storm Bilis(2006) are investigated using the data from a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation.An imposed large-scale forcing with upward motion in the mid and upper troposphere and downward motion in the lower troposphere on 15 July suppresses convective clouds,which leads to ～100% coverage of raining stratiform clouds over the entire model domain.The imposed forci...     

深汕特别合作区协同共治型区域治理模式研究

伴随金融风暴引发了全球资本重组,资本的空间修复客观要求以新的跨界区域治理模式组织资本与劳动力关系,而中国传统跨界产业园区建设路径依赖于区域发展中“省-地方”分层设权治理模式。以珠三角地区的深汕特别合作区为例,通过深度访谈与文本分析法,发现深汕特别合作区形成的多主体共同参与、分工合作的协同共治型区域治理模式是在传统路径依赖基础上的一次制度创新。通过分析模式产生的产业经济背景、政策制度背景与现实发展概况,并解构深汕特别合作区行政组织架构、空间发展政策及利益分配机制,发现省政府的放松管制与资源注入,地方政府的优势互补、分工协同是协同共治型区域治理模式的本质特征,而这一区域治理模式的产生将会对中国区域产业政策与空间政策及政府职能转型提供新的经验与启示。     

台风疑难路径的理论探讨

本文通过尺度分析得到稳态台风在移动坐标系中的简化动力模式,从而得到台风平均移动的一维非线性控制方程,并对此方程进行解释分析,得到了平衡点及其稳定性特征和跨临界分叉特征。指出,在台风周围流场较弱时,台风原地打转和出现“疑难路径”是由台风本身固有的动力特性决定的。