A comparison and case analysis between domestic and overseas industrial parks of China since the Belt and Road Initiative

Journal of Geographical Sciences - With rapid globalization, industrial parks are playing an increasingly important role in the national and regional development. Since the Belt and Road Initiative...     

参数敏感性分析在遥感及生态水文模型中的研究进展

参数敏感性分析SA（Sensitivity Analysis）是遥感、生态和水文模型不确定性分析UA（Uncertainty Analysis）的重要方法之一。本文梳理了遥感散射/辐射模型,以及遥感驱动的生态、水文模型研究中常用的敏感性分析方法,并总结了各类方法的优缺点和适用条件。从识别关键参数、不确定性分析和参数优化3个方面,分析了这些领域中参数敏感性分析研究的进展和存在问题,并介绍了最常用的敏感性分析平台。参数敏感性分析作为模型参数优化的先验知识之一,促进了模型和参数的优化。在不确定性和敏感性矩阵USM（Uncertainty and Sensitivity Matrix）的框架下,结合全局敏感性分析方法开展多阶段遥感反演、参数敏感性的尺度效应、参数敏感性的时空异质性研究更加需要关注。此外,还需要提高敏感性分析的计算效率和模式,来适应未来更加复杂的模型和迅速增长的数据量。     

0707号强热带风暴“帕布”路径与强度异常变化成因分析

0707号强热带风暴"帕布"具有路径复杂、强度多变、暴雨超强的异常特点,本文通过对常规气象观测资料分析发现:处于弱环境气流场以及与0708号热带风暴"蝴蝶"的互旋运动是造成"帕布"路径复杂的主要原因,而其强度的变化除受到"蝴蝶"的影响之外,还与辐合带的作用和其高低层环流中心结构出现明显的倾斜有关,而南海辐合带对其产生超强暴雨有突出的贡献。     

局地海表温度异常影响热带气旋路径的模拟研究

本文以热带气旋"鲇鱼"(2010)为例,利用WRF模式和"鲇鱼"移动路径上不同的局地海表温度(SST)强迫进行了敏感性数值模拟。控制试验(CTRL)采用NCEP的SST强迫,敏感性试验分别在"鲇鱼"登陆菲律宾前的路径上增加(EXP1)和减小(EXP2)SST。结果表明:CTRL试验模拟的热带气旋路径与实况非常一致,EXP1试验模拟的热带气旋路径提前转向,移动路径偏东,EXP2试验模拟的热带气旋路径转向滞后,且移动路径偏西。对SST异常导致热带气旋路径出现差异的原因分析发现,热带气旋在吕宋岛东侧经过异常暖SST海面时,热带气旋强度增强,产生异常的正涡度平流,且500 h Pa以上凝结潜热释放增强副热带高压敏感区出现温度场的正异常,500h Pa以下水凝物的混合和蒸发作用增强造成副热带高压敏感区温度场的负异常,加之正的异常涡度平流和异常的上暖下冷温度场配置使得500 h Pa位势高度降低,副热带高压强度减弱,副热带高压西伸范围减小,导致热带气旋提前向北转向,移动路径偏东。反之,当热带气旋在吕宋岛东侧经过异常冷SST海面时,副热带高压西伸范围扩大,导致热带气旋向北转向滞后,路径偏西。     

Forward a spatio-temporal trend surface for long-term ground-measured albedo upscaling over heterogeneous land surface

Upscaling ground albedo is challenged by the serious discrepancy between the heterogeneity of land surfaces and the small number of ground-based measurements. Conventional ground-based measurements cannot provide sufficient information on the characteristics of surface albedo at the scale of coarse pixels over heterogeneous land surfaces. One method of overcoming this problem is to introduce high-resolution albedo imagery as ancillary information for upscaling. However, due to the low frequency of updating of high-resolution albedo maps, upscaling time series of ground-based albedo measurements is difficult. This paper proposes a method that is based on the idea of conceptual universal scaling methodology for establishing a spatiotemporal trend surface using very few high-resolution images and time series of ground-based measurements for spatial-temporal upscaling of albedo. The construction of the spatiotemporal trend surface incorporates the spatial information provided by auxiliary remote sensing images and the temporal information provided by long time series of ground observations. This approach was illustrated by upscaling ground-based fine-scale albedo measurements to a coarse scale over the core study area in HiWATER. The results indicate that this method can characterize the spatiotemporal variations in surface albedo well, and the overall correlation coefficient was 0.702 during the study period.     

秦巴山区地质灾害成因及预报预警

利用1955～2007年地质灾害与降水资料以及加密乡镇人工监测站、乡镇自动气象站、水文降水资料,分析秦巴山区地质灾害特点、形成机制、灾害发生与降水强度和降水持续时间的关系,用数理统计方法研究地质灾害不同易发区的临界降水指标,并结合气象部门现行精细化气象预报预警业务流程,研制了秦巴山区地质灾害精细化预报预警思路和制作流程,建成了自动运行的地质灾害预报预警业务系统。2008年应用取得较好的预报效果。     

云南滇池无齿蚌的分布与环境

滇池为云贵高原最大的淡水湖,湖中软体动物及介形类等水生生物非常丰富,尤其是软体动物的无齿蚌(Anodonta)更为丰富,种类多,个体数量大。本文探讨滇池无齿蚌的种类、分布,及其与水体温度、透明度、pH值等水域环境的关系。     

Assessment and spatial distribution of sensitivity of soil erosion in Tibet

Based on Universal Soil Loss Equation and methods of mathematics model and GIS analysis, this study classified influence of precipitation, soil, topography and vegetation upon sensitivity of soil erosion into five different degrees which are extreme sensitivity, quite sensitivity, sensitivity, less sensitivity and no sensitivity. Assessment map of each factor was generated separately. Integrated assessment map of sensitivity of soil erosion has also been drawn by overlapping function with Arcinfo. Furthermore, the study analyzed distribution characteristics and spatial difference of sensitivity of soil erosion under special plateau environment of Tibet. According to sensitivity degree, some important controlling regions was confirmed so that departments of water conservancy, traffic management and agriculture could make scientific and reasonable decisions for their respective subject planning.     

河南省东亚飞蝗发生时间序列突变分析

用累积距平和Mann Kendall方法研究了 195 0～ 2 0 0 0年河南省东亚飞蝗发生时间序列的变化趋势及其突变 ,结果表明 :河南省东亚飞蝗发生时间序列的变化趋势十分明显 ,1985年以后河南省东亚飞蝗发生程度明显加重 ,飞蝗的发生面积在 196 6年发生突变。气候变化可能是近几年河南省东亚飞蝗再次持续大发生的主要原因之一 ;秋蝗比夏蝗发生程度波动性更大的原因可能在于蝗虫自身对恶劣环境的适应性。     

Trace elements in sub-alpine forest soils on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau,China

Industrial development has increased fast in China during the last decades. This has led to a range of environmental problems. Deposition of trace elements to forest ecosystems via the atmosphere is one potential problem. In this paper, we report the results from a pilot study where the trace element levels of the sub-alpine forest soils on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau have been measured. Possible relationships between soil properties and trace element concentrations have also been investigated. The obtained concentrations (mg kg⁻¹) were boron (B) 48.06–53.70, molybdenum (Mo) 1.53–2.26, zinc (Zn) 68.18–79.53, copper (Cu) 36.81–42.44, selenium (Se) 0.33–0.49, cadmium (Cd) 0.16–0.29, lead (Pb) 25.80–30.71, chromium (Cr) 96.10–110.08, nickel (Ni) 30.16–45.60, mercury (Hg) 0.05–0.11, and arsenic (As) 3.09–4.17. With a few exceptions, the element concentration can be characterized as low in the investigated sub-alpine forest soils. No clear differences in trace element levels were found between topsoil and subsoil samples, indicating that the atmospheric deposition of trace element has been low. The soil parent material plays a key role to determine trace element levels. Soil properties, including pH_w, organic carbon (OC), clay fraction, cation-exchange capacity (CEC), total iron (Fe), and total aluminum (Al) concentrations were related to trace element concentration using correlation analysis. Total Fe and Al showed the strongest relationships with concentrations of most trace elements in the sub-alpine forest soils. PCA analyses indicated that a significant increase in the number of cars with the fast development of local tourism may result in higher Pb concentration in the future.