Discussion on Induan-Olenekian Boundary in Chaohu, Anhui Province, China

This paper proposes a scheme for the definition of the Lower Triassic Induan-Olenekian boundary (IOB) based on investigation of sections in Chaohu, Anhui Province, China as well as data accumulated from other studies elsewhere. The conodont Neospathodus waageni is suggested as the index fossil of the boundary. According to the FAD of N. waageni, the IOB is at the base of bed 25-2 of the West Pingdingshan Section in Chaohu, 42.19 m above the Permian-Triassic boundary, and it is slightly higher than the base of the Flemingites-Euflemingites Ammonoid Zone at the section.     

四川丹巴县泥石流灾害及其降雨预报阈值确定

利用2000~2020年丹巴泥石流和降雨资料,对丹巴泥石流灾害进行了研究。结果表明：丹巴县境内东北部的小金河谷是泥石流的高易发区,西北部的金川河谷是次易发区;5~9月均有泥石流发生,相对集中在6~7月,高发期为7月;短时强降水的雨强越大,发生灾害的风险越大,强降水出现频率最高的时段也是泥石流高发时段,19:00~05:00是泥石流灾害发生的高发时段;当降雨强度10~15 mm/h或15~25 mm/3h时,有一定泥石流灾害气象风险,为四级;降水强度在16~20 mm/h或26~35 mm/3h时,泥石流灾害气象风险较高,为三级;降水强度21~35 mm/h或36~60 mm/3h时,泥石流灾害气象风险高,为二级;降水强度≥35 mm/h或≥60 mm/3h时,泥石流灾害气象风险极高,为一级。前期有效雨量累积时间越长、雨量越大,出现泥石流灾害的可能性越大。     

黄河流域秋季降水及环流对ENSO和IOD的响应分析

利用1961-2011年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和黄河流域54站降水资料,通过讨论印度洋偶极子IOD独立发生时及IOD与ENSO联合发生时黄河流域秋季降水的差异,研究了秋季降水及环流对ENSO和IOD的响应情况.结果表明:1)仅有IOD发生时,其正位相年使得黄河流域的秋季降水相应为正异常.2)当IOD与ENSO伴随出现时,无论IOD是正位相年还是负位相年,只要和El Nino同时发生,黄河流域秋季降水都表现为负异常;和La Ni-na同时发生时,黄河流域秋季降水都表现为正异常.有无ENSO发生,IOD与秋季降水的关系有很大差异.3)欧亚中纬度地区500 hPa高度东高西低距平场形势和850 hPa黄河流域中下游南风距平异常,是黄河流域秋季降水正异常的主要环流成因.4)依据秋季海温与夏季海温相关性,可以把夏季ENSO和IOD异常信号特征作为先兆信号之一来预测秋季降水趋势.     

经济适用住房在城市中的空间分布——基于DEM的武汉市实例分析

经济适用住房作为具有保障性质的政策性住房,其在城市中的空间分布决定了居住其中的中低收入家庭在城市中的空间位置和聚散程度,这不仅是一个建设选址问题,也关系城市经济社会的发展。基于经济适用住房的特点,分析了经济适用住房在城市中空间分布的“两阶段性”,分布过程中面临的问题,并提出经济适用住房“空间福利”概念和计算方法;选取武汉市作为分析实例,基于GIS 平台和构建DEM的方法对武汉市经济适用住房的空间分布概况、空间福利比较以及微观面上的建设选址和空间质量分配问题进行了分析和探讨。     

南盘江-红水河(中段)的河流地貌特征与地壳变形

珠江作为亚洲的一条重要河流,它的中上游南盘江-红水河(中段)流经右江-南盘江被动陆缘造山带的西北段。研究南盘江-红水河(中段)的河流地貌是了解老造山带内部新构造活动情况和考察青藏高原新生代构造活动远程效应的重要手段。经过调查发现,南盘江-红水河(中段)所属的亚流域Ⅱ出现左右岸流域严重不对称,亚流域Ⅱ南部隆林至天峨一线出现近东西向弧形分水岭。隆林附近的坝索至纳贡一带,南盘江河道出现裂点段落,小流域(RN3)出现"反S"形河网,且其北边界发生地貌跃迁。该河段附近的北东向和近东西向弧形断层发育,并有弧形支流出现。天峨附近红水河河道有反向裂点出现,天峨附近的布柳河呈北东向弧形展布。文章引入了向形构造体系和旋块构造体系对上述地貌现象和构造活动特征进行解释。研究表明,南盘江-红水河(中段)的流域不对称、近东西向的弧形分水岭分布、北东向和近东西向弧形断层以及弧形支流展布受控于先存构造形成的向形构造系统。在先存的向形构造系统中,隆林一带河流的裂点、地貌跃迁和"反S"形河网等河流地貌现象是对后期构造体系活动的响应,后期构造活动继承了早期向形构造体系的格局,以祥播块体(A)为旋转中心,带动了周边构造变形,形成旋块构造体系。天峨反向裂点是上下游水利条件差异与构造抬升共同作用的结果。但旋块构造体系活动的启动和分期活动的时代仍未有合理的时间约束。亚洲大陆逃逸为旋块构造体系活动提供了一种可能的动力学解释。     

生态足迹模型在我国土地可持续利用评价中的应用及启示

近年来,我国土地资源的不合理利用给生态环境带来了诸多负面影响,这使开展土地可持续利用评价研究成为当务之急,而科学发展观和新一轮土地利用总体规划修编工作的开展,为土地可持续利用评价研究提出了新的要求。生态足迹模型是目前可持续发展评价领域的研究热点,为土地可持续利用评价提供了重要途径。该文分析生态足迹模型在我国土地可持续利用评价中的研究现状,指出研究中主要存在评价精度较低、研究内容不全、应用方法单一等不足,并从研究尺度、研究精度、研究内容、研究方法和对土地利用相关政策启示等角度,提出需进一步改进的方向和建议。     

On the Improvement of the DSAEF＿LTP Model to Heavy Precipitation Simulation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China in 2018

In this study, the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model (DSAEF_LTP model) for landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) precipitation was employed to simulate the precipitation of 10 LTCs that occurred Pover China in 2018. With adding parameter‘similarity region scheme’(SRS) values and introducing TC intensity into the generalized initial value (GIV), four groups of precipitation simulation experiments were designed to verify the forecasting ability of the improved model for more TC samples. Results show that the simulation ability of the DSAEF_LTP model can be optimized regardless of whether adding SRS values only, or introducing TC intensity into GIV, while the experiment with both the two improvements shows a more prominent advantage in simulating the heavier precipitation of LTCs. Compared with four NWP models (i.e., ECMWF, GFS, GRAPES and SMS-WARMS), the overall forecasting performance of the DSAEF_LTP model achieves a better result in simulating precipitation at the thresholds over 250 mm and performs slightly better than NWP models at the thresholds over 100 mm.     

Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center

Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most important predictability sources in subseasonal–interannual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the research and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons (EAWM and EASM, respectively), on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system (CPPS) and completed a hindcast experiment for the period 1991–2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is systematically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improvements in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC’s climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.     

Meridional movement of northern and southern equatorial ionization anomaly crests in the East-Asian sector during 2002–2003 SSW

The present paper investigates the asymmetrical variability of the location of the north and the south equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crests in the East-Asian sector, along with their association with simultaneous observations of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) strength, geomagnetic activity index, and solar flux index during the 2002–2003 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Analysis of these observations indicates the existence of a large-scale quasi 16-day periodic meridional movement in both EIA crests, and also reveals a strong correlation between the quasi 16-day oscillation in geomagnetic latitudes of the EIA crest and EEJ strength. The latitude of the northern/southern EIA crest and the EEJ strength indicate that obvious synchronous periodic oscillations were in-phase in the northern and southern hemisphere when the SSW occurred. In addition, it is also found that both the EIA crest location and amplitude of the periodic movement of the EIA locations exhibit hemispheric asymmetry. The amplitude of the periodic movement of the EIA location in the southern hemisphere is larger than that of the northern hemisphere, and the southern EIA crest is further off from the equator than the north one. Understanding these asymmetries requires a combination of mechanisms that involve at least trans-equator meridional winds and the position of a sub-solar point; however, potential disturbances in neutral winds associated with the SSW may additionally complicate the equatorial ionospheric dynamics.     

2001年4月2日太阳耀斑及其太阳质子事件的观测结果研究

2001年4月2日, 太阳爆发了一个近年来X射线通量最大的一次耀斑并伴有质子事件, 利用“资源一号”卫星星内粒子探测器和神舟二号飞船X射线探测器的观测资料, 对这一事件的高能粒子响应进行了特例研究. “资源一号”卫星运行于太阳同步轨道, 高度约800km, 和宁静时期的统计结果对比, 这次耀斑后, 星内粒子探测器在地球极盖区（地球开磁场区）观测到耀斑粒子的出现, 这是宁静时期没有的; 神舟二号飞船轨道高度400km, 倾角为42°, X射线探测器在42°中高纬地区也观测到高能电子通量比宁静时明显的增加, 这表明, 太阳耀斑引起的近地空间辐射环境的变化遍及纬度约40°以上的区域, 甚至在40°N附近400 km左右的高度上仍然有响应. 但是, 中高纬度、极光带和极盖区的粒子来源, 加速机制和响应方式却不一定相同, 需要分别讨论. 资料分析和对比还表明, 质子事件的强度并不一定和耀斑的X射线通量成正比, 因此, 近地空间高能粒子对耀斑的响应也不是完全决定于X射线强度.