Predictable patterns and predictive skills of monsoon precipitation in Northern Hemisphere summer in NCEP CFSv2 reforecasts

The predictable patterns and predictive skills of monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere summer (June–July–August) are examined using reforecasts (1983–2010) from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The possible connections of these predictable patterns with global sea surface temperature (SST) are investigated. The empirical orthogonal function analysis with maximized signal-to-noise ratio is used to isolate the predictable patterns of the precipitation for three regional monsoons: the Asian and Indo-Pacific monsoon (AIPM), the Africa monsoon (AFM), and the North America monsoon (NAM). Overall, the CFSv2 well predicts the monsoon precipitation patterns associated with El Niño-South Oscillation (ENSO) due to its good prediction skill for ENSO. For AIPM, two identified predictable patterns are an equatorial dipole pattern characterized by opposite variations between the equatorial western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean, and a tropical western Pacific pattern characterized by opposite variations over the tropical northwestern Pacific and the Philippines and over the regions to its west, north, and southeast. For NAM, the predictable patterns are a tropical eastern Pacific pattern with opposite variations in the tropical eastern Pacific and in Mexico, the Guyana Plateau and the equatorial Atlantic, and a Central American pattern with opposite variations in the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic and in the Amazon Plains. The CFSv2 can predict these patterns at least 5 months in advance. However, compared with the good skill in predicting AIPM and NAM precipitation patterns, the CFSv2 exhibits little predictive skill for AFM precipitation, probably because the variability of the tropical Atlantic SST plays a more important than ENSO in the AFM precipitation variation and the prediction skill is lower for the tropical Atlantic SST than the tropical Pacific SST.     

CINRAD/CD雷达方位伺服系统驱动电源故障分析及处理

对遵义CINRAD/CD新一代多普勒天气雷达运行6年多来发生的8次方位伺服系统驱动电源故障维修工作进行归纳总结。根据故障现象细微差别,将其归纳为3类,并对应分析故障原因,找出具体维修措施,以便于本站维修经验的积累和国内其他同型号雷达维修技术人员参考。     

遵义市花椒气候生态区划研究

为探讨影响花椒生长发育的主要气候资源和受气象灾害的影响因子,本文根据不同品种的花椒对气候生态条件要求的差异,分析遵义与花椒优生区(重庆江津)气候条件的异同,确定影响遵义市花椒区域分布差异的主要气候生态区划指标,并利用Arcgis和数字高程模型(DEM)对遵义市种植花椒进行气候生态精细化区划。结果表明：九叶青花椒适宜栽培区主要分布在我市西部和北部海拔在900米以下地区种植,区内热量条件充足,冬季遭受低温冻害风险相对小;次适宜栽培区主要分布在我市中部和东南部等海拔为600米到1000米地区,冬季遭受低温冻害风险增大,为25%-40%之间;不适宜区分布在习水、大娄山脉等海拔在1000米到1100米以上的区域,花椒冬季遭受低温冻害风险较大,在50%以上。     

北山地区早古生代板块构造特征

位于甘肃省西北边界和内蒙古自治区西端的北山地区,早古生代大地构造单元由塔里木板块东段北缘和北侧贝加尔期分裂出来的旱山微板块组成,其间被石板井-小黄山蛇绿混杂岩带所分隔。在漫长的构造演化进程中发育有蛇绿岩带。同时,经历了大西洋型、安第斯型(?)和西太平洋型大陆边缘的演化阶段,陆壳增厚,地壳成熟度增加,由大洋地壳和过渡型地壳向大陆型地壳转化。晚古生代初,全区进入板内活动时期。     

海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展

从短期气候预测关注的外强迫信号角度出发,回顾了国内外在海温异常对东亚夏季风和我国汛期降水影响机理方面的主要研究进展,重点评述了热带太平洋ENSO循环、热带印度洋全区一致型海温模态、热带印度洋海温异常偶极子、南印度洋偶极子和北大西洋海温三极子模态的年际变化及其对东亚夏季风年际变率的影响。从研究成果在短期气候预测业务中应用的角度,重点关注海温异常和东亚夏季风年际变率以及我国汛期降水多雨带位置的关系,总结了海温异常作为外强迫信号对我国汛期降水预测的指示意义以及汛期降水预测的难度。最后指出气候预测业务对东亚夏季风影响的机理研究和动力气候模式发展方面的需求。     

湖南常宁康家湾铅锌矿床角砾岩成因及其与成矿的关系

康家湾铅锌矿是一个大型多金属矿床,矿区内发育有大面积角砾岩。本文在详细地质工作的基础上,参照前人研究成果,探讨了该角砾岩成因及其与成矿的关系。根据角砾成分和空间分布等特征,矿区内角砾岩可划分为层间硅化角砾岩(Qb)、岩溶角砾岩(Kb)、崩塌角砾岩(Ba)和断层角砾岩(Bf)四种类型。分析认为角砾岩主要由构造与热液双重作用形成,分别经历构造破碎、热液交代及后期岩溶改造三个阶段。矿体主要赋存于层间硅化角砾岩中,少量角砾状矿石赋存于岩溶角砾岩中。据上认为,该套角砾岩成因与康家湾铅锌矿具有密切成因关系。     

南海季风爆发与风向改变指数关系初探

通过定义一个风向改变指数,探讨了该指数与南海夏季风爆发之间的关系,得到以下主要结论:利用Yamamoto突变检验,定义了南海关键区,南海季风爆发时,850 hPa上的风场在该关键区确有突变发生;南海夏季风爆发时的风场突变是全球风场突变的一部分;分析了南海关键区上该指数的空间分布和时间演变,发现30～300 hPa平均于5月初风场开始反向,其早于低层风场反向约2周,这对预报南海季风爆发具有启示意义.     

Seismic sedimentology study of the Cretaceous in Chunguang exploration area,northwest of Junggar Basin

Seismic sedimentology is the effective method to depict the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of sedimentary system. Taking the Chunguang exploration area in the northwest of the Junggar Basin as an example,the sequence boundaries and their distributions were analyzed at first,and the high-resolution sequence framework was thus built. And then the sedimentary types were identified combined with seismic,mud-logging,well-logging,core and analytic data. Under the guidance of seismic sedimentology,the distribution of sedimentary systems were depicted using several techniques including stratal slicing. The results show that: (1)the Cretaceous was divided into four third-order sequences and seven fourth-order sequences in the Chunguang exploration area;(2)four types of sedimentary facies types are identified,including fan delta,braided river delta,hyperpycnal-flow deposits and lake;(3)through the phase adjustment,a good corresponding relationship between seismic amplitude and lithology is established. The frequency decomposition,RGB blending and stratal slicing techniques were carried out,and the spatial-temporal distribution of sedimentary systems in the study area was depicted precisely. During the depositional period of the Hutubi Formation,fan delta was developed in the northwest of the study area,and braided river delta and hyperpycnal-flow deposits were developed in the east,sinuous channels and lateral accretion packages can be observed from the stratal slices. The lake transgression reached the maximum during the depositional period of the Shengjinkou Formation,and it was favorable to development and preservation of hyperpycnal-flow deposits. The inherited fan delta deposits were still developed in the northwest of the study area. Due to the uplift of the northwest area,it could be only developed in the east area with braided deltas and gradually decreased hyperpycnal-flow deposits during the depositional period of the Lianmuqin Formation.     

CMIP6陆面、雪和土壤湿度模式比较计划（LS3MIP）评述

<正>土壤湿度、积雪等陆面要素通过改变陆面热力状况,进而对大气环流、区域乃至全球气候产生重要影响。研究表明,土壤湿度是影响陆-气耦合的重要地表变量,它可以影响地表蒸发、调控地表热通量,从而对气候产生局地及非局地影响^[1-3]。积雪通过积雪-反照率效应和积雪-水文效应调节陆面热力状况,是大气环流和气候的重要影响因素^[4-6]。在海-陆-气耦合的全球气候模式中,     

中国陆域1:25万分幅建造构造图空间数据库

依托全国矿产资源潜力评价专项（2006—2013年）,通过全面收集1∶5万、1∶20万、1∶25万区域地质调查资料（含1999—2005年获取的青藏高原1∶25万区域地质调查资料）,地质研究成果、科研专著、重要文献等资料,以及地球物理、地球化学、遥感地质推断成果,在编制建立1∶25万分幅成矿地质背景研究实际材料图空间数据库基础上,应用建造构造分析法及编图技术,采用数据模型、质量控制模型、GIS软件等现代信息技术手段,按1∶25万标准分幅编图、建库、汇总、集成,建立了中国陆域1∶25万分幅建造构造图空间数据库,包含图幅数729幅及其相应编图说明书和图件元数据等内容,空间范围基本覆盖中国陆域。明显优于以系或组级地层单位为表示单元的传统地质图数据库：主图图面要素是组级岩石地层单位的进一步细化、分解为不同的岩石建造,按产状表达建造花纹,客观表达岩石建造和地质构造实体形迹,系统反映地质作用及其演化特征,读图直观且便于应用。可为1∶50万尺度及以小大地构造图的编制提供基础资料,为1∶25万尺度及以小区域矿产预测直接提取矿产预测要素,为1∶25万尺度及以小成矿规律研究提供地质构造专题底图资料;在地质找矿、地质灾害防治、水工环地质调查、地热资源勘查、生态文明建设等方面具有广泛且长久可重复利用价值。