1987年8月2日寻邬5．5级地震的孕育过程

1987年8月2日，江西省寻邬发生MS5．5地震。本文研究了这次地震和震前的各种异常现象，研究发现，震前该区地壳形变和震活动出现了中、长期同步变化，短临阶段，出现了异常地震活动和宏观现象。根据岩石破裂实验结果和地震前兆理论，对这次地震的孕育过程作了阶段性的划分。     

Auto-covariance estimation of variable samples (ACEVS) and its application for monitoring random ionospheric disturbances using GPS

 Ionospheric variation may be considered as a stationary time series under quiet conditions. However, the disturbance of a stationary random process from stationarity results in the bias of corresponding samples from the stationary observations, and in the change of statistical model parameters of the process. From a general mathematical aspect, a new method is presented for monitoring ionospheric variations, based on the characteristic of time-series observation of GPS, and an investigation of the statistical properties of the estimated auto-covariance of the random ionospheric delay when changing the number of samples in the time series is carried out. A preliminary scheme for monitoring ionospheric delays is proposed. Received: 18 August 2000 / Accepted: 12 April 2001     

区域尺度蒸散发遥感估算——反演与数据同化研究进展

遥感技术近年来在估算区域尺度蒸散发中应用广泛。不同方法在驱动数据、模型机理和适用范围往往存在很大差别。鉴于此,阐述了基于传统方法空间尺度扩展的遥感模型,经验统计公式,特征空间法,单源、双源垂向能量平衡余项法等几类的遥感蒸散发反演方法,简要介绍了三温模型、非参数化模型、半经验模型、集成模型等常用模型。同时,分析了遥感数据同化实现连续估算区域蒸散发的主要思路,综述了基于能量平衡和基于复杂过程模型的数据同化的原理、方法演进及常用同化算法等。最后,探讨了各类区域蒸散发遥感方法的优劣、展望了模型机理完善、不确定性研究、结果验证等与蒸散发直接反演和数据同化相关的研究方向。     

利用GPS计算的TEC变化率监测太阳耀斑

给出了利用双频GPS载波相位观测值计算各个卫星沿观测方向的电子总量 (TEC)变化率的方法 ,用该方法计算了 2 0 0 0年 7月 12日和 7月 14日两次级别分别为X1.9级和X5 .7级太阳耀斑前后一周各个卫星的TEC变化率。分析表明 ,在太阳耀斑爆发当天 ,如果卫星交叉点是在中纬度地区运动 ,沿观测方向TEC变化率除耀斑爆发的一段时间外 ,其它时间变化相对平稳 ,并且在耀斑爆发一天后 ,TEC变化率趋于正常 ;如果卫星交叉点纬度低于 30° ,那么在耀斑爆发前一天 ,各个卫星沿观测方向的TEC变化率发生“异常” ,即变化率增加很快 ,而且交叉点运行的纬度越低 ,TEC变化率的增量越大。比较了分析太阳耀斑的两种数据处理方法 :求解沿天顶方向上电子总量 (VTEC)和求解TEC变化率的方法 ,指出求解TEC变化率的方法不必考虑仪器偏差的影响 ,能更好地监测较小级别的太阳耀斑。     

Simplified approach to estimate the maximum wall deflection for deep excavations with cross walls in clay under the undrained condition

Previous studies have shown that use of cross walls in deep excavations can reduce the wall deflection to a very small amount. However, design of cross walls is costly because the deflection behavior of the diaphragm wall with cross walls is in nature three dimensional. The objective of this study was to establish a simplified approach used as a first approximation to design cross walls such that the lateral wall deflection can satisfy a design criterion. A series of parametric studies using a three-dimensional numerical method was performed to obtain the influence factors on wall deflections, including excavation geometry, wall system stiffness, axial stiffness of strut, axial stiffness of the cross wall, normalized undrained shear strength of clay and the cross wall depth. Then, a simplified formula for predicting the wall deflection for excavations without and with cross walls was established using multivariate regression analysis, respectively. The formulas were validated through 36 excavation cases without cross walls and 12 cases with cross walls. The simplified formulas can be used to develop a spreadsheet that estimates the cross wall sizes and intervals based on the entered excavation geometry, material properties of retaining-strut system, in situ undrained shear strength and tolerable wall deflection. The estimated cross wall sizes and intervals should be verified by an appropriate full numerical analysis.     

Mechanism of downcutting erosion of debris flow over a movable bed

The phenomenon of debris flow is intermediate between mass movement and solid transport. Flows can be sudden, severe and destructive. Understanding debris flow erosion processes is the key to providing geomorphic explanations, but progress has been limited because the physical-mechanical properties, movement laws and erosion characteristics are different from those of sediment-laden flow. Using infinite slope theory, this research examines the process and mechanism of downcutting erosion over a moveable bed in a viscous debris flow gully. It focuses specifically on the scour depth and the critical slope for viscous debris flow,and formulas for both calculations are presented.Both scour depth and the critical conditions of downcutting erosion are related to debris flow properties(sand volume concentration and flow depth) and gully properties(longitudinal slope,viscous and internal friction angle of gully materials,and coefficient of kinetic friction). In addition, a series of flume experiments was carried out to characterize the scouring process of debris flows with different properties. The calculated values agreed well with the experimental data. These theoretical formulas are reasonable, and using infinite slope theory to analyze down cutting erosion from viscous debris flow is feasible.     

珊瑚砂振冲密实加固响应室内模型试验研究

随着海洋岛礁工程的大力推进,吹填珊瑚砂地基的密实加固问题开始备受关注。利用自主研发的室内振冲器开展了珊瑚砂饱和砂土地基的室内振冲模型试验研究,深入分析了振冲过程中动孔隙水压力、水平动土压力等动参量的响应规律,探讨了振冲后沉降变形、相对密实度的变化特征。结果表明：松散珊瑚砂地基的密实度在经过两次双点振冲反复加固后均提升至中密。其中相对密实度在振冲点位处的提升效果较其余位置更为明显,并且中层或深层区域的加固效果优于表层区域。在超孔隙水压力方面,其最大值出现在振冲珊瑚砂地基过程中的贯入阶段,并且在留振开始时出现衰减现象。珊瑚砂地基在振冲器上拔过程中超孔隙水压力发生断崖式下跌。在第2次贯入时,超孔隙水压力比的峰值较首次出现显著下降。超孔隙水压力比等值线云图表明,振冲过程中的超孔隙水压力比等值线呈现平行分布。珊瑚砂浅层水平土压力随振冲器的贯入与拔出均呈现增加态势,深层水平土压力则呈现减少态势。     

Numerical Study on Tidally Induced Cross-Frontal Mean Circulation

An analytical solution for a circulation across a tidal front obtained by Dong, C., Ou, H-W., Chen, D., &; Visbeck, M. (2004 Dong, C., Ou, H-W., Chen, D., &; Visbeck, M. (2004). Tidally induced cross-frontal mean circulation: Analytical study. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 34, 293–305. doi: 10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<0293:TICMCA>2.0.CO;2[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Tidally induced cross-frontal mean circulation: Analytical study. Journal of Physical Oceanograph, 34, 293–305) suggests that the cross-frontal circulation can be decomposed into four parts: frontal cell, Ekman cell, Bernoulli cell, and Stokes drift. This study examines the analytical solution thoroughly using a two-dimensional numerical model solving primitive Navier-Stokes equations. The direct comparison between the numerical and the analytical models of three cases (winter tidal front, summer tidal front, and no front) with the same configurations demonstrates that the analytical solution captures the major features of the cross-frontal circulation. A series of numerical experiments are applied to study the sensitivity of the cross-frontal circulation to physical variables: tidal intensity, horizontal topography scale, frontal strength, and vertical eddy viscosity. The ratio of the tidal excursion distance to the topographical scale is crucial to the Ekman cell in the homogenous ocean. With a greater density gradient, both the Bernoulli and Ekman cells are enhanced. Assumptions made in the analytical model are also examined. The uniform eddy viscosity and linearization in the analytical model could overestimate the bottom flow in the Ekman cell and underestimate the Bernoulli cell in the shallower region, respectively. The influence of the internal tide on the cross-frontal circulation is discussed.