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排序方式： 共有381条查询结果，搜索用时 48 毫秒
41.
42.
Xavier Rodó Mercedes Pascual Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Alexander Gershunov Dáithí A. Stone Filippo Giorgi Peter J. Hudson James Kinter Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias Nils Ch. Stenseth David Alonso Javier García-Serrano Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640
The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed. 相似文献
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44.
The study of transitory signals and local variability structures in both/either time and space and their role as sources of climatic memory, is an important but often neglected topic in climate research despite its obvious importance and extensive coverage in the literature. Transitory signals arise either from non-linearities, in the climate system, transitory atmosphere–ocean couplings, and other processes in the climate system evolving after a critical threshold is crossed. These temporary interactions that, though intense, may not last long, can be responsible for a large amount of unexplained variability but are normally considered of limited relevance and often, discarded. With most of the current techniques at hand these typology of signatures are difficult to isolate because the low signal-to-noise ratio in midlatitudes, the limited recurrence of the transitory signals during a customary interval of data considered. Also, there is often a serious problem arising from the smoothing of local or transitory processes if statistical techniques are applied, that consider all the length of data available, rather than taking into account the size of the specific variability structure under investigation. Scale-dependent correlation (SDC) analysis is a new statistical method capable of highlighting the presence of transitory processes, these former being understood as temporary significant lag-dependent autocovariance in a single series, or covariance structures between two series. This approach, therefore, complements other approaches such as those resulting from the families of wavelet analysis, singular-spectrum analysis and recurrence plots. A main feature of SDC is its high-performance for short time series, its ability to characterize phase-relationships and thresholds in the bivariate domain. Ultimately, SDC helps tracking short-lagged relationships among processes that locally or temporarily couple and uncouple. The use of SDC is illustrated in the present paper by means of some synthetic time-series examples of increasing complexity, and it is compared with wavelet analysis in order to provide a well-known reference of its capabilities. A comparison between SDC and companion techniques is also addressed and results are exemplified for the specific case of some relevant El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections. 相似文献
45.
Filip Lefebre Xavier Fettweis Hubert Gallée Jean-Pascal Van Ypersele Philippe Marbaix Wouter Greuell Pierluigi Calanca 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(1):99-116
A simulation of the 1991 summer has been performed over south Greenland with a coupled atmosphere–snow regional climate model (RCM) forced by the ECMWF re-analysis. The simulation is evaluated with in-situ coastal and ice-sheet atmospheric and glaciological observations. Modelled air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and radiative fluxes are in good agreement with the available observations, although uncertainties in the radiative transfer scheme need further investigation to improve the model’s performance. In the sub-surface snow-ice model, surface albedo is calculated from the simulated snow grain shape and size, snow depth, meltwater accumulation, cloudiness and ice albedo. The use of snow metamorphism processes allows a realistic modelling of the temporal variations in the surface albedo during both melting periods and accumulation events. Concerning the surface albedo, the main finding is that an accurate albedo simulation during the melting season strongly depends on a proper initialization of the surface conditions which mainly result from winter accumulation processes. Furthermore, in a sensitivity experiment with a constant 0.8 albedo over the whole ice sheet, the average amount of melt decreased by more than 60%, which highlights the importance of a correctly simulated surface albedo. The use of this coupled atmosphere–snow RCM offers new perspectives in the study of the Greenland surface mass balance due to the represented feedback between the surface climate and the surface albedo, which is the most sensitive parameter in energy-balance-based ablation calculations. 相似文献
46.
François Colas James C. McWilliams Xavier Capet Jaison Kurian 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(1-2):509-529
The Peru-Chile current System (PCS) is a region of persistent biases in global climate models. It has strong coastal upwelling, alongshore boundary currents, and mesoscale eddies. These oceanic phenomena provide essential heat transport to maintain a cool oceanic surface underneath the prevalent atmospheric stratus cloud deck, through a combination of mean circulation and eddy flux. We demonstrate these behaviors in a regional, quasi-equilibrium oceanic model that adequately resolves the mesoscale eddies with climatological forcing. The key result is that the atmospheric heating is large (>50 W m?2) over a substantial strip >500 km wide off the coast of Peru, and the balancing lateral oceanic flux is much larger than provided by the offshore Ekman flux alone. The atmospheric heating is weaker and the coastally influenced strip is narrower off Chile, but again the Ekman flux is not sufficient for heat balance. The eddy contribution to the oceanic flux is substantial. Analysis of eddy properties shows strong surface temperature fronts and associated large vorticity, especially off Peru. Cyclonic eddies moderately dominate the surface layer, and anticyclonic eddies, originating from the nearshore poleward Peru-Chile Undercurrent (PCUC), dominate the subsurface, especially off Chile. The sensitivity of the PCS heat balance to equatorial intra-seasonal oscillations is found to be small. We demonstrate that forcing the regional model with a representative, coarse-resolution global reanalysis wind product has dramatic and deleterious consequences for the oceanic circulation and climate heat balance, the eddy heat flux in particular. 相似文献
47.
Pierre Choukroune Xavier Le Pichon Michel Seguret Jean-Claude Sibuet 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1973,18(1):109-118
The different hypotheses proposed for the creation of the Bay of Biscay are reviewed. New geological and geophysical data collected in the last two years in the Bay and in the Pyrenean domain give new insight into the tectogenesis of the Pyrenees. Geological data of the Pyrenean area provide tight constraints on the hypothesis of formation of the Bay. The most probable hypothesis is an opening by rotation of the Iberian Peninsula around a pole of rotation situated near Paris, which resulted in strike-slip motion along the North Pyrenean fault during the Upper Mesozoic. A progressive westward migration of the pole initiated in the late Cretaceous blocked the motion along the fault and led to the main Eocene tectogenetic Pyrenean phase. 相似文献
48.
The solute and suspended‐sediment load following five rainstorms (2005–2007) with varied intensities were studied at the Vernegà experimental watershed, north‐western Spain. Two land‐use areas are located within this watershed, the upstream one (forest) with 160 ha a 100% forested area, and the downstream one (agricultural) with 97 ha being 9 ha conventional agricultural field and 88 ha forest. This study investigates the capacity of each land‐use to yield water, suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and dissolved solid concentration (DSC). The hypothesis is that DSC and SSC from the agricultural area are greater than DSC and SSC of the forest area. Results showed that the agriculture area produced significantly greater mean DSC than in the forest area, the main contribution was the Ca2+ (24·68 ± 46·52 mg l?1) ion at the agricultural area. A long‐term sediment production rate at the agricultural outlet was calculated (69·1 tonnes per 100 years) based on the total sediment discharge (TSD) and the recurrence interval of the largest event of the five rainstorms (October 2005). Geographic information system (GIS) spatial data layers of the watershed were produced to determine the relation of tracks, landforms, slopes and forest management to SSC yield in the forest outlet (133·89 ± 308·14 mg l?1) during the five rainstorms. Agriculture practices are the main cause of soil erosion at the study area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
49.
Daisy?Arroyo Xavier?Emery "mailto:xemery@ing.uchile.cl " title= "xemery@ing.uchile.cl " itemprop= "email " data-track= "click " data-track-action= "Email author " data-track-label= " ">Email author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1583-1592
This paper addresses the problem of simulating multivariate random fields with stationary Gaussian increments in a d-dimensional Euclidean space. To this end, one considers a spectral turning-bands algorithm, in which the simulated field is a mixture of basic random fields made of weighted cosine waves associated with random frequencies and random phases. The weights depend on the spectral density of the direct and cross variogram matrices of the desired random field for the specified frequencies. The algorithm is applied to synthetic examples corresponding to different spatial correlation models. The properties of these models and of the algorithm are discussed, highlighting its computational efficiency, accuracy and versatility. 相似文献
50.
Xavier Carton 《Surveys in Geophysics》2001,22(3):179-263
Mesoscale coherent vortices are numerous in the ocean.Though they possess various structures in temperature and salinity,they are all long-lived, fairly intense and mostly circular. Thephysical variable which best describes the rotation and the density anomaly associated with coherent vortices is potential vorticity. It is diagnostically related to velocity and pressure, when the vortex is stationary. Stationary vortices can be monopolar (circular or elliptical) or multipolar; their stability analysis shows thattransitions between the various stationary shapes are possible when they become unstable. But stable vortices can also undergo unsteady evolutions when perturbed by environmental effects, likelarge-scale shear or strain fields, -effect or topography. Changes in vortex shapes can also result from vortex interactions. such as the pairing, merger or vertical alignment of two vortices, which depend on their relative polarities and depths. Such interactions transfer energy and enstrophy between scales, and are essential in two-dimensional and in geostrophic turbulence. Finally, in relation with the observations, we describe a few mechanisms of vortex generation. 相似文献