Spurious diapycnal mixing in terrain-following coordinate models: The problem and a solution

In this paper, we identify a crucial numerical problem in sigma coordinate models, leading to unacceptable spurious diapycnal mixing. This error is a by-product of recent advances in numerical methods, namely the implementation of high-order diffusive advection schemes. In the case of ROMS, spurious mixing is produced by its third-order upwind advection scheme, but our analysis suggests that all diffusive advection schemes would behave similarly in all sigma models. We show that the common idea that spurious mixing decreases with resolution is generally false. In a coarse-resolution regime, spurious mixing increases as resolution is refined, and may reach its peak value when eddy-driven lateral mixing becomes explicitly resolved. At finer resolution, diffusivities are expected to decrease but with values that only become acceptable at resolutions finer than the kilometer. The solution to this problem requires a specifically designed advection scheme. We propose and validate the RSUP3 scheme, where diffusion is split from advection and is represented by a rotated biharmonic diffusion scheme with flow-dependent hyperdiffusivity satisfying the Peclet constraint. The rotated diffusion operator is designed for numerical stability, which includes improvements of linear stability limits and a clipping method adapted to the sigma-coordinate. Realistic model experiments in a southwest Pacific configuration show that RSUP3 is able to preserve low dispersion and diffusion capabilities of the original third-order upwind scheme, while preserving water mass characteristics. There are residual errors from the rotated diffusion operator, but they remain acceptable. The use of a constant diffusivity rather than the Peclet hyperdiffusivity tends to increase these residual errors which become unacceptable with Laplacian diffusion. Finally, we have left some options open concerning the use of time filters as an alternative to spatial diffusion. A temporal discretization approach to the present problem (including implicit discretization) will be reported in a following paper.     

New Validity Conditions for the Multivariate Matérn Coregionalization Model,with an Application to Exploration Geochemistry

Mathematical Geosciences - This paper addresses the problem of finding parametric constraints that ensure the validity of the multivariate Matérn covariance for modeling the spatial...     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Beach nourishments at Coolangatta Bay over the period 1987–2005: Impacts and lessons

Erosion of the southern Gold Coast beaches (SE Queensland, Australia) was exacerbated after the extension of the Tweed River training walls in the early 1960s. To achieve the objective of restoring and maintaining beach amenity, significant nourishment works have been undertaken in Coolangatta Bay over the past 30 years. Particularly, under the Tweed River Entrance Sand Bypassing Project (TRESBP) since 1995, a number of nourishment campaigns and the implementation of a permanent sand bypass system in 2001 have resulted in significant changes of Coolangatta Bay morphology. The present case study investigates the influence of both wave climate and nourishment works on the area extending from the updrift Snapper Rocks area to downdrift Kirra Beach. SWAN spectral wave model is implemented at Coolangatta Bay area and forced by the global wave model WW3 to estimate wave forcing and the potential natural longshore drift entering in Coolangatta. Specific transects extracted from accurate bathymetric surveys are used to investigate and quantify Coolangatta Bay sedimentation for the period 1987–2005. A network of Argus video stations provides high sample rate information on the shoreline evolution. Results show that, over the past 10 years, Coolangatta Bay has infilled rapidly. Sedimentation reached up to 6 m in some areas between 1995 and 2005, with beach width increasing by 200 m at Kirra Beach. Rapid seaward shoreline migration is consistent with the intense over-pumping of sand relative to the natural potential to move sand alongshore. The nourishment strategy used during this project has successfully delivered large amounts of sand to the southern Gold Coast embayment, although it has been up to now controversial from many community perspectives. The artificial sand bypassing process proved to be much more efficient than depositing the dredged sand in the nearshore area which requires a significant period of low energy condition in order for the deposited sediment to migrate shoreward and weld to the shore. This case study confirms that, when carefully undertaken, sand bypassing is a sustainable and flexible soft engineering approach which can work in concert with natural processes.     

Factors involved in growth plasticity of cockles Cerastoderma edule (L.), identified by field survey and transplant experiments

In Arcachon Bay, a macrotidal coastal lagoon in southwest France, growth rates of cockles Cerastoderma edule (L.) differ greatly between locations. Sampling of populations at different tidal levels showed that the mean shell length was significantly and positively correlated with immersion time, whereas no correlation was found with population density and microphytobenthos biomass. Transplants of cockles between two intertidal sites were used to examine the relative importance of habitat and site of origin for growth rate and condition index. Artifacts due to manipulation were assessed, i.e. the impact of enclosures on growth, conditon index and mortality. During a 5-mo reciprocal transplant experiment, growth rates of the transplanted cockles and the cockles already present were similar, whereas the sites of origin did not affect growth rate. Condition index, however, displayed significant differences in relation to both transplant and origin sites. During a further 6-mo experiment in which cockles were transplanted from one site to four new sites, growth was mainly influenced by tidal level. These results indicate that net growth started when cockles were immersed 30% of the time. It is concluded that, on the scale of Arcachon Bay (156 km²), differences in growth and condition between cockle populations are largely phenotypic. Tidal level (i.e. food supply and emersion stress) accounts for most of these differences, but the existence of genetically or physiologically different populations cannot be excluded.     

Geochemical and hydrodynamic constraints on the distribution of trace metal concentrations in the lagoon of Nouméa, New Caledonia

Seawater samples were collected in the lagoon of Nouméa (southwest New Caledonia) along two transects from eutrophic coastal bays to the oligotrophic barrier reef. Land-based emissions to the lagoon were measured with dissolved and particulate concentrations of chromium (Cr) and nickel (Ni), used as tracers of both terrigenous and industrial (Ni ore treatment) activities, as well as dissolved and particulate concentrations of zinc (Zn), used as a tracer of urban effluents. The spatial variability of metal concentrations was related to geochemical and hydrodynamic conditions, i.e., respectively: (1) natural and anthropogenic emission sources, and chemical processes occurring in the water column; and (2) water residence times. The parameter used to describe the residence time of water masses was the local e-flushing time, i.e. the time required for a tracer mass contained within a given station to be reduced by a factor 1/e. High metal concentrations were found in coastal areas (up to 9000 ng dissolved Ni L⁻¹), and steeply decreased with distance from the coast (down to 101 ng dissolved Ni L⁻¹ near the barrier reef) to reach levels similar to those found in remote Pacific waters, suggesting a rapid renewal of waters close to the barrier. Distributions of metals in the lagoon are controlled upstream by land-based emission sources and later chemical processes. Then hydrodynamics constrain metal distributions, as shown by the observed relationship between local e-flushing times and the spatial variability of metal concentrations. In addition, a change in the direction of prevailing winds yielded a decrease of dissolved metal concentrations at the same site by a factor of 2.5 (Cr and Ni) and 2.9 (Zn). It is suggested that the residence time is a key parameter in the control of elemental concentrations in the lagoon waters, as much as land-based emission sources.     

A seasonal dipolar eddy near Ras Al Hamra (Sea of Oman)

Trajectories and hydrological data from two Argo floats indicate that warm and salty water at 200–300-m depths was ejected from the coast of Oman, near Ras al Hamra, in spring 2008, 2011, and 2012. This warm and salty water, Persian Gulf Water (PGW), once ejected from the coast, recirculated cyclonically in the western Sea of Oman, but also flowed eastward along the Iranian and Pakistani coasts. There, it was expelled seaward by mesoscale eddies as shown by other float data. Seasonal maps of salinity were computed from all available Argo floats; they showed that, in spring, PGW is present in the middle and north of the Sea of Oman, contrary to fall, when the salinity maxima lie southeast of Ras al Hadd. The ejection of PGW from Ras al Hamra is related here to the influence of a mesoscale dipolar eddy which often appears near this cape in spring. The time-averaged and empirical orthogonal functions of altimetric maps over 11 years for this season confirm the frequent presence and the persistence of this feature. From surface currents and hydrology, deep currents were computed via thermal wind balance, and the associated shear and strain fields were obtained. This deformation field is intense near Ras al Hamra, with an offshore direction. This flow structure associated with the mesoscale dipole explains PGW ejection from the coast. This observation suggests that PGW distribution in the Northern Arabian Sea can be strongly influenced by seasonal mesoscale eddies.